麦睿投资二季度市场综述(2022)

经济和利率评论：

随着经济从大流行中恢复正常，我们继续生活在有趣的时代。2022 年上半年经济增长放缓，第一季度 GDP 为-1.6%，第二季度预计下降 1%。5月份，各项消费价格指数达到8.3%，创十年新高。这导致美联储在 6 月份的最新月度会议上将利率提高 0.75%，而不是预期的 0.50%；美联储基金利率达到 1.5%，并导致抵押贷款利率急剧上升至 6%。

通胀的上升主要是由能源推动的，每桶原油的价格从年初的每桶 75 美元飙升至 120 美元。推动最终消费者天然气价格上涨的主要因素是炼油能力不足。多年来，将原油提炼成最终产品（如汽油）低利润甚至没有利润，因此大部分产能并未增加或在某些情况下退出市场。价格上涨的其他主要驱动因素是机票。这主要是由于缺乏飞行员，在较小程度上是由于缺乏飞机。

原油炼油厂和运营商业航空服务都需要在投入运营前数年投入大量资金、人员、时间和培训。这些投资在过去几年没有展开，因此一旦新冠疫情完全放开情况下，供应就不足以满足经济正常化的需求。由于这些价格压力，美国消费者信心在 5 月份创下历史新低。我们预计在今年夏天之后，通胀读数将达到顶峰，但仍保持在 3-4% 的高位，原因是疫情造成的不确定性和全球不稳定导致长期资本项目缺乏投资。

债券和被动企业所有权（股票）市场评论：

通胀和利率上升，导致债券指数在第二季度下降 5.06%，上半年下降10.61%。长期债券下跌更多，第二季度下降 13.5%，上半年下降 22.48%。这是债券有史以来最糟糕的 六个月之一。麦睿投资一直在投资组合中减持债券，并完全避免长期债券，因为我们认为疫情带来的更高和更持久的通胀风险比许多人考虑的要大。通俗来讲，债券收益率低于通货膨胀率使它们没有投资吸引力。

标普 500 股指在第二季度下跌 16.5%，进入通常所说的熊市，较峰值下跌 20%。上半年下降 20.45%，为自 1970 年以来的最差开局。权重更大的纳斯达克科技指数在第二季度下降22.45%，上半年下降 30.35%。股指下跌主要有3个原因：

1. 利率上升使得那些预期收益遥远的公司价值大大降低。由于过去几年资金成本基本上为零，许多公司的股票被严重高估，因为假设是基于永久接近零的资本成本即零折现率。麦睿投资一直避免投资这些类型的公司，只投资基于合理的正常资本成本的盈利公司。

   
   

2. 许多公司因为疫情收入而急剧增加，例如 Netflix (上半年下跌-70.5% )、META/FB (上半年下跌-53.6% )、Peloton (上半年下跌-74.4% ),和 Wayfair (上半年下跌-77.4% ), 他们的增长明显放缓。

   
   

3. 市场情绪由贪婪转变为极度恐惧。媒体和公众总是基于感觉而不是事实从极端看涨变为极端悲观。尽管经济增长放缓，但标准普尔 500 指数的收益与 2021 年大致相同。

麦睿投资的客户，重要的是要记住，我们非常谨慎的将您的投资组合多元化并且避免任何一家公司或一个行业急剧下滑从而导致永久性资本的损失。在这样的情况下，重要的是要有长远的策略，因为如果根据短期的情绪驱动很容易做出经济上伤害自己的决定。

应对这些短期低迷市场的一个策略是不要去看你的投资组合。大多数人在查看他们的投资组合时，会在价值增加时感到高兴，而在价值下降时感到不高兴。在确定他们的感受方面，变化的幅度似乎不如方向重要。因此，为了最大限度地提高幸福感，大多数人可能不应该经常查看他们的投资组合。原因如下：

从 1988 年初到 22 年 6 月 28 日，美国股市（使用标普 500 指数）的平均年回报率约为 10%。换句话说，如果不计交易成本和税收，1987 年底投资于美国股票的 10,000 美元再投资股息将增长到今天的 315,000 美元左右。如果您在此期间每天查看您的投资组合，您大约有一半的时间不开心，而如果您每年查看，您大约有五分之四的时间感到高兴。以下是统计数据：

理想情况下，您可以既高兴又了解情况，但在这种情况下，需要权衡取舍；经常知道你的投资组合的当前价值可能会让你有一半时间不开心。

另一个关键策略是有足够的安全边际。换句话说，支出大大低于你的资源（相对于退休前的收入，以及相对于退休后的投资组合规模），那么在所有时候你应该都会感到欣慰，不会慌张。

当市场下跌时，也可以加大投资组合。我们不建议在经济低迷时持有现金，如果有多余的现金，那么这将是投资的好时机。古老的谚语有云，植树的最佳时间是 20 年前，第二好的时间是今天。

保持长远的眼光并了解市场历史也很有帮助。这是我最近读到的一个金融故事，它说明了这一点。

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-unluckiest-stock-market-investor-of-modern-times-11655830851

正如我们所指出的，这是自 1970 年以来美股年初至今的最差回报。1970 年，美国市场在下半年的回报率为 26%，年底回报率为 4%。我敢肯定市场情绪在 1970 年中期也非常低迷，但就像所有事情一样，它终将过去的。

资产价格股票的这种下跌巩固了我们的投资过程，因为我们一直在增持生产性资产，虽然在 2022 年适度下跌，但其表现比更具投机性的股票或比特币等投机工具要好得多。

结论：美国经济正在经历一个调整期，其增长速度低于我们之前习惯的高增长。低失业率和劳动力稀缺导致价格上涨。通货膨胀和美联储对它的反应是我正在监测的变化信号。通货膨胀风险的环境有利于企业所有权和基础设施（尽管在此过程中存在短期颠簸），而不是固定收益/债券的违约安全。

Economic and Interest Rate Commentary:

We continue to live in interesting times with the normalization of the economy from pandemic. In the 1st half of 2022 economic growth slowed as Q1 GDP was -1.6% and Q2 is expected to be down 1%. In May the all-items consumer price index hit 8.3% which marked a multi-decade high. This caused the FED to raise rates 0.75% instead of the expected 0.50% at its latest monthly meeting in June. This put the FED funds rate at 1.5% and has caused mortgage rates to move up sharply to as high as 6%. 

The increase in inflation has largely been driven by energy as the price of a barrel of crude spiked to as high as $120 per barrel from $75 at the start of the year. The main factor driving gas prices higher for the end consumer is the lack of refining capacity. For many years refining crude into its end products such as gasoline was a low to no profit endeavor, therefore much of this capacity has not been increased or in some cases retired. The other main drivers of higher prices are airline tickets. This is primarily due to a lack pilots, and to a lesser extent planes. 

Both crude refinery and operating a commercial air service require significant investment of capital, people, time, and training years before they are operational. These investments were not made in the past few years therefore the supply is just not there to meet the demand from the normalization of the economy from Covid re-opening. In response to these prices pressures the US consumer sentiment was the lowest on record in May. I would expect after this summer inflation readings to have peaked but stay elevated in the 3-4% due to the lack of investment in long term capital projects from the uncertainty caused by COVID and lack of global stability.

Bond and Passive Business Ownership (Stock) Market Commentary:

The increase inflation caused interest rates to rise and resulted in bond indexes to decrease 5.06% in Q2 and 10.61% YTD. More damage done to long term bonds as these decreased 13.5% in Q2 and 22.48% YTD. This has been one of the worst 6-month period for bonds ever. I have been underweighted bonds in portfolios and completely avoided longer term bonds as I cautioned that higher and more persistent inflation from the covid actions was a larger risk than many were factoring in. Further quite simply bonds yields have been and still continue to be lower than inflation rates making them unattractive.

The S&P500 stock index declined 16.5% in Q2 falling into what is commonly referred to as a bear market with a drop of 20% from its peak. YTD the index ended Q2 down 20.45% for the worst start to the year since 1970. The more heavily weighted technology NASDAQ index was down 22.45% in Q2 and is down 30.35%. The drop in the value of the stock indexes is due to 3 main reasons.

1. The increase in interest rates makes the value of companies whose expected earnings are projected far out in the future worth significantly less. Due to the cost of funds being essentially zero the past few years many companies stock was significantly overvalued as the assumption were based on a perpetual near zero cost of capital. We have avoided invested in these types of companies and only invest in profitable companies based on a reasonable normal cost of capital. 

2. Many companies saw their revenues have a sharp increase from COVID like for example Netflix (-70.5% YTD), META/FB (-53.6% YTD), Peloton(-74.4% YTD), and Wayfair (-77.4% YTD) have seen their growth significantly slow. 

3. Sentiment in the market has changed from greed to extreme fear. I am always amused by how media and public can go from so extremely bullish to pessimistic based mostly on feeling and not results or production. For example, the earnings (in other words the production) of the S&P500 index are about the same as 2021 despite the milder economic growth rate.

Its important remember your portfolios are properly diversified away from the risk of one company or sector having a sharp downturn that would result in a permanent loss of capital. During periods like this it is important to have a long-term perspective as it can be easy to make short term emotional driven decisions that financially hurt yourself. 

A popular strategy for dealing with these short-term downturns is to simply don’t look at your portfolio. Most people, when they look at their portfolios, are happy when the value has increased and are unhappy when it has decreased. The magnitude of the change seems less important than the direction in determining how they feel. Therefore, to maximize happiness, most people should probably look at their portfolios less often. Here’s why:

From the beginning of 1988 through 6/28/22, the U.S. stock market (using the S&P 500 index) has had an average annual return ofabout 10%. In other words, ignoring transaction costs and taxes, $10,000 invested at the end of 1987 in U.S. stocks with dividends reinvested would have grown to about $315,000 today. If you looked at your portfolio daily during this period you would have been unhappy about half the time, while if you looked annually, you would have been happy about 4 out of 5 times. 

Ideally you could be both happy and informed, but in this case, there is a trade-off; knowing the current value of your portfolio frequently is likely to make you less happy.

Another key strategy is to have a significant margin of safety. In other words, spending significantly below your resources (relative to income pre-retirement, and relative to portfolio size post-retirement) gives comfort that in virtually all situations that you will be just fine.

You might also add to your portfolio when the market is down. We wouldn’t recommend holding cash waiting for a downturn, but if you find you have excess cash it’s always a good time to invest. According to an old proverb, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the 2nd best time is today.

It can also be helpful to maintain a long-term perspective and be aware of market history. Here is a financial story I read recently that illustrates this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-unluckiest-stock-market-investor-of-modern-times-11655830851

As I pointed out this has been the worst returns for US stocks YTD since 1970. In 1970, the US markets returned 26% in the 2nd half of the year of the year to finish the year with a 4% return. I am sure it felt pretty negative in mid-1970 as well, but like all things it will pass.

This decrease in assets prices stocks has solidified our investment process as we have been overweight productive assets that while down modestly in 2022 have done exponentially better than the more speculative story stocks or speculative vehicles such as Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The US economy is going thru an adjustment period with slower growth than we were accustomed to in 2021. Low unemployment and labor being scarce has resulted in prices to increase. Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s response to it are what I am monitoring for signals of change. This environment favors business ownership and infrastructure (despite short term bumps along the way) over the default safety of fixed income / bonds due to inflation risk.