我们拥挤的星球

Part.1

繁荣的全球人口归功于医疗的改善

图片来源：United Nations

Our booming global population is thanks to increasing life expectancy and decreasing mortality rate as a result of improvements in healthcare, according to the UN. 

根据联合国的数据，我们蓬勃发展的全球人口要归功于预期寿命的增加和死亡率的下降，这是医疗保健改善的结果。

The latest data from the UN's Population Division gives a global life expectancy for men of 70.8 years and for women of 75.6 years, while in 2010 it was 68 and 73 respectively.

联合国人口司的最新数据显示，全球男性的预期寿命为70.8岁，女性为75.6岁，而在2010年，这一数字分别为68和73。

Females are expected to outlive males in all regions and countries in the world, ranging from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.

在世界所有地区和国家，女性的预期寿命都会超过男性，从拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的7年到澳大利亚和新西兰的2.9年不等。

Our increasing population is not a result of increasing fertility, as World Population Prospects 2022 states this has fallen markedly in recent decades for many countries.

我们的人口增长并不是生育率上升的结果，正如《2022年世界人口展望》指出的那样，近几十年来，许多国家的生育率已经明显下降。

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: 'This year's World Population Day falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth's eight billionth inhabitant.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥-古特雷斯说："今年的世界人口日正值一个里程碑式的年份，我们预计地球上第80亿个居民将诞生。

'This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates.

这是一个庆祝我们的多样性，承认我们共同的人性，并惊叹于健康方面的进步，这些进步延长了我们的寿命，并大大降低了孕产妇和儿童的死亡率。

'At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,' he added.

同时，这也提醒我们有共同的责任来照顾我们的星球，也是反思我们在哪些方面仍然没有履行对彼此的承诺的时刻，"他补充说。

Part.2

未来增长人口中一半来自非洲

The latest projections by the UN suggest that the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.

联合国的最新预测表明，世界人口在2030年可能增长到约85亿，2050年可能增长到97亿。

图片来源：United Nations

It is the countries of sub-Saharan Africa that are expected to contribute more than half of the increase anticipated through 2050.

预计到2050年，撒哈拉以南的非洲国家将占到预期增长的一半以上。

Birth rates are so high in Africa because contraception has not been so widely adopted, for religious or cultural reasons, and there is a relatively young population.

非洲的出生率如此之高，是因为由于宗教或文化原因、避孕措施没有被广泛采用以及人口相对年轻。

According to data from World Bank, about 42 per cent of the population of sub-Saharan Africa is under the age of 15, and there is an average of 98 births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19.

根据世界银行的数据，撒哈拉以南非洲地区大约42%的人口在15岁以下，15至19岁的女孩平均每千人有98个孩子。

Outside the region, this same adolescent fertility rate is around 11 in the UK, 15 in the US and 42 globally.

在该地区之外，这一相同的青少年生育率在英国约为11，在美国为15，在全球为42。

Part.3

一些国家的人口在未来将减少

But despite the high fertility rates in Africa, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

尽管非洲的生育率很高，但预计到2050年，全球生育率将进一步下降到每名妇女2.1胎。

The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1 per cent or more between 2022 and 2050, owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.

61个国家或地区的人口预计在2022年至2050年期间减少1%或更多，原因是持续的低生育率，在某些情况下，移民率上升。

Factors influencing this include increasing women's education, large availability and uptake of contraception and couples getting married older. 

影响因素包括妇女受教育程度的提高、避孕措施的大量供应以及夫妇结婚年龄的提高。

Among countries with at least half a million people, the largest relative reductions in population size until 2050 are expected to occur in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine, with losses of at leas 20 per cent.

在至少有50万人口的国家中，预计到2050年人口规模相对减少最多的是保加利亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、塞尔维亚和乌克兰，损失至少20%。

Part.4

高收入国家开放移民政策

Global population projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100. 

全球人口预计将在20世纪80年代达到约104亿人的高峰，并在2100年前保持这一水平。

In high-income countries, migration is expected to play a large part in this, as between 2010 and 2021, 40 countries or areas experienced a net inflow of more than 200,000 migrants.

在高收入国家，预计移民将在其中发挥很大作用，因为在2010年至2021年期间，有40个国家或地区经历了超过20万的移民净流入。

According to the UN report, many of these top receiving countries, including Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, are experiencing an influx of high numbers of refugees.

根据联合国的报告，这些接收最多人口国中的许多国家，包括约旦、黎巴嫩和土耳其，正经历着大量难民的涌入。

Outgoing migrants tend to leave countries like Pakistan, India and Bangladesh for work, while conflict and insecurity drove people from the Syrian Arab Republic. Venezuela and Myanmar.

向外的移民也将上升，例如巴基斯坦、印度和孟加拉国等本国人口将离开家乡去到别的国家工作。另外，由于冲突和不安全感原因也会驱使人们离开自己的国家，例如委内瑞拉等。

A report last year from the World Bank estimated that 216 million people could be forced to migrate to other parts of their country by 2050 due to climate change impacts.

世界银行去年的一份报告估计，到2050年，由于气候变化的影响，2.16亿人可能被迫迁移到其他地方。

Part.5

人口增长对环境的影响

Some scientists estimate that the Earth's maximum carrying capacity - the amount of people the resources available can support - is between nine and ten billion people. 

一些科学家估计，地球的最大承载能力--现有资源可以支持的人口数量--在90亿到100亿之间。

The relationship between population and the environment is not straight forward, however a study from last year found that least 97 per cent of Earth's land is no longer classified as 'ecologically intact' due to human activity.

人口和环境之间的关系并不直接，然而，去年的一项研究发现，由于人类活动，地球上至少有97%的土地不再被列为 "生态完整"。

Moreover, another study showed that at least 85 per cent of us are already being affected by human-induced climate change, and there is no sign of a decrease in carbon emissions.

此外，另一项研究表明，至少有85%的人已经受到人类引起的气候变化的影响，而且碳排放没有减少的迹象。

The report reads: 'The growth of the population itself may not be the direct cause of environmental damage; it may nevertheless exacerbate the problem or accelerate the timing of its emergence.

该报告写道。'人口增长本身可能不是环境破坏的直接原因；但它可能加剧问题或加快问题出现的时间。

Reaching an 8 billion global population “is an occasion to celebrate diversity and advancements while considering humanity’s shared responsibility for the planet,” UN Secretary General António Guterres said in the UN statement.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥-古特雷斯（António Guterres）在联合国声明中说，达到80亿全球人口 "是一个庆祝多样性和进步的机会，同时考虑到人类对地球的共同责任"。

Having more people on Earth puts more pressure on nature, as people compete with wildlife for water, food and space. Meanwhile, rapid population growth combined with climate change is also likely to cause mass migration and conflict in coming decades, experts say.

地球上有更多的人给大自然带来更多的压力，因为人们与野生动物争夺水、食物和空间。同时，专家说，人口的快速增长加上气候变化，也可能在未来几十年内造成大规模的移民和冲突。