朔尔茨来了，米歇尔来了，马克龙也要来，欧盟不再跟风美国？

2023-03-04 03:03

导读

全球地缘政治经历深刻变化，中欧关系的走向将影响深远。面对俄乌冲突带来的多重冲击、美国试图集结欧洲盟友遏制中国崛起的强烈攻势，欧盟应充分考虑对华经贸关系的重要性。近期德国总理朔尔茨和欧洲理事会主席米歇尔先后访华，法国总统马克龙也访华在即，显示出欧盟欲加深对华合作，力避加入美国主导的全面反华阵营，卷入地缘政治对抗的迹象。

作者：本雅明·波戈相

(Benyamin Poghosyan)

亚美尼亚政治经济战略研究中心主席

简约不规则图形阴影分割线

中欧关系的未来是当前国际关系中最受关注的问题之一。随着世界格局由单极向多极化演变，大国竞争日益激烈，世界秩序的未来面临严峻挑战。多极化世界注定会成为你死我的战场吗？亦或是说在气候变化、流行病、跨国犯罪等共同挑战面前，不同“极”之间的良性竞争将有利于全球发展？

在当前挑战和机遇并存的环境之下，欧洲的未来备受关注。欧洲是将作为独立一“极”而存在，还是会像英国或美国的一些亚洲盟友一样，成为美国这一“极”的附庸？如果欧洲加入由美国主导的“西方极”，那就意味着欧盟将接受并追随“遏制中国”等美国外交政策的主要目标。

In the current environment of challenges and opportunities, the future of Europe is a focus of attention. Will Europe act as an independent pole, or will it be a part of the US-led pole, along with the United Kingdom and probably with some Asian allies of the United States? If Europe is a part of the US-led unified Western pole, then the European Union will embrace the main goals of the US foreign policy, including the containment of China.

图源：视觉中国

近年来，美国努力让欧洲成为其对华政策的协同参与者。在美国的影响下，北约在新战略概念文件中对中国使用了负面措辞。该文件称，中国的“野心”和“胁迫”政策，以及中俄之间不断深化的战略伙伴关系，对北约成员国的利益、安全和价值观造成挑战。而在2022年3月，欧盟发布的《安全与防务战略指南》中，再度强调其对华关系的三重定位——合作伙伴、经济竞争者和制度性对手。战略指南强调，欧盟应当同中国在气候变化等领域开展合作，但需要确保中国的发展有助于维护全球安全，不会对“基于规则的国际秩序”构成威胁，也不会对欧盟的利益和价值观造成挑战。欧盟强调，欧洲需要强有力的团结，并与其他的区域和全球伙伴密切合作。今年1月10日，北约与欧盟签署了第三份有关双边合作的联合宣言，其中声称：“中国日益增长的自信和政策已然给北约和欧盟带来了必须应对的挑战。”

In recent years, the US has made significant efforts to involve Europe in its China policy. The efforts have resulted in the inclusion of negative wording on China in NATO's new Strategic Concept. It argued that China's ambitions and "coercive "policies and the deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia challenge the interests, security, and values of the NATO members.In March 2022, the EU adopted a strategic compass for security and defense, arguing that China was a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival. Meanwhile, the strategic compass emphasized that the EU and China have areas for cooperation, such as climate change, while mentioning that the EU needs to ensure that China's development happens in a way that contributes to upholding global security and does not contradict the rules-based international order and the EU's interests and values. The EU emphasized that would require strong European unity and working closely with other regional and global partners. On Jan 10 this year, NATO and the EU signed their third joint declaration on cooperation. The two organizations claimed that China's growing assertiveness and policies present challenges that NATO and the EU need to address.

与此同时，俄乌冲突和西方对俄罗斯的经济制裁给欧盟经济带来了重大挑战。尽管欧盟目前仍在继续对俄施加经济压力，但一些欧洲人已经开始对现行措施提出质疑，他们认为这将导致欧洲“去工业化”。而在最近，美国为提高本国的投资吸引力采取了一系列措施，出台《通胀削减法案》和《芯片与科学法案》，已经带动了一批欧洲企业迁往美国。《通胀削减法案》承诺为企业提供巨额补贴，使得许多公司认为没有必要再在欧洲投资。

图源：新华社

例如，瑞典电池制造商诺斯沃特 (Northvolt) 已暂停在德国扩建工厂，而专注发展美国业务；瑞士光伏组件制造商梅耶博格 (Meyer Burger) 也宣布将在美国亚利桑那州投资设厂，令外界怀疑其不会再对德国的工厂追加投资。

此外，欧盟决定大幅减少从俄罗斯的能源进口，也使得美国对欧洲的液化天然气出口增加。这一“降”一“升”，再加上美国军工产业开足马力生产，为美国带来了数十亿美元的额外利润；而欧盟的经济竞争力却由此下降，发生经济危机的风险也大大提高。

在当前动荡的经济形势下，发展与中国的经济合作可能更加符合欧盟的经济利益——中国既可以向欧盟提供产品，也可以为欧洲出口商提供一个开放的大市场。在此背景下，重新启动《中欧全面投资协定》谈判，可以为改善双边经济关系奠定良好基础。

In the current volatile economic situation, the development of economic cooperation with China may well serve the EU's economic interests by continuing to open the Chinese market to European exporters while providing the EU with products. In this context, the relaunch of negotiations on the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment could serve as a good base for improving bilateral economic relations.

图源：中国日报

自2020年12月谈判结束以来，该协定可谓是历经一波三折。当时恰逢美国总统换届之际，无论是即将离任的特朗普政府，还是将要上任的拜登政府，都在攻击这一协定，认为它没有充分解决中国“强迫劳动”等问题——当然，这些“问题”都是凭空捏造出来对中国进行抹黑的。美方的施压很有可能导致了欧盟的批准流程迟迟未了。但是，至少在一些欧洲国家，似乎有越来越多的人认识到欧盟需要同中国进行合作，而全盘接受美国遏制中国的战略对欧洲的未来而言并不是件好事。

The EU-China investment agreement has undergone a complicated journey since negotiations concluded in December 2020. At that time, members of both the outgoing Donald Trump and the incoming Joe Biden administrations in the US criticized the deal, arguing that it did not sufficiently address China's use of forced labor, among other issues that have been fabricated to smear China. Most probably, the US pressure played a role in stalling the ratification process. However, it seems that there is a growing understanding in at least some European countries that the EU needs to cooperate with China, and the full embrace of the US strategy of containing China will not bode well for the future of the continent.

2022年11月，德国总理朔尔茨率领一支“豪华企业代表团”访华，与中国领导人进行了会谈。他是过去三年以来首位访华的欧洲国家领导人。就在访问之前，在朔尔茨亲自推动下，中国远洋海运集团收购汉堡港“福地”集装箱码头股份的协议终于获批。根据该协议，中远海运被允许收购该码头24.9%，而非最初希望的35%的股份，且并未获得汉堡港的运营决策权。

In November 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, accompanied by a business delegation of German CEOs. Scholz was the first European leader to do so in three years. Just prior to the visit, Scholz backed China's Cosco Shipping's proposed investment in the Tollerort container terminal at Hamburg port. According to the deal, Cosco would buy less than 25 percent instead of the 35 percent stake it sought and would have no voting rights at Germany's busiest port.

图源：中国日报

朔尔茨刚走不久，紧接着12月欧洲理事会主席米歇尔也对中国进行了访问。他在访问期间表示，欧中关系对双方都具有重要意义，中国是欧盟最大的商品贸易伙伴，每日贸易额近20亿欧元，中国占到欧洲进口总额的22%以上。

The visit by the German chancellor was followed by the visit to Beijing of the president of the European Council Charles Michel. During his visit, Michel stated that EU-China relations were significant for both sides, as China is the EU's top trading partner in goods amounting to almost 2 billion euros ($2.18 billion) every day, and China accounts for over 22 percent of European imports.

朔尔茨和米歇尔的先后访华，以及法国总统马克龙即将进行的访华，表现出欧盟在对华关系的问题上，观念正在发生转变。马克龙计划的访华之际，适逢欧盟正寻求重新调整其对华和对美贸易的地位。美国《通胀削减法案》为本国企业提供巨额补贴，欧盟也在加紧制定新的产业政策加以应对。越来越多的欧洲政界人士、专家和学界代表开始将对华关系视为增强欧盟经济韧性的重要支柱。当然，这并不意味着欧盟将在未来的地缘政治斗争中与美国对抗，但也确实表明欧盟可能将不再盲目跟风美国的对华政策，转而寻求发展对华经济合作，并采取措施解决共同问题。

These two visits and the planned visit to China by French President Emmanuel Macron in the coming months are signs of the shifting perceptions of the EU on its relations with China. Macron's planned visit will come as the EU is seeking to recalibrate its trading position toward both China and the US. The EU is in the process of building a new industrial policy as the US Inflation Reduction Act subsidizes domestic companies. The growing numbers of European politicians, experts and representatives of academia have started to view relations with China as a significant pillar of the EU's economic resilience. It does not mean that the EU will move against the US in the geopolitical battles of tomorrow, but it means that the EU will probably stop fully emulating the US policy against China, seek to develop economic cooperation and take steps to solve common problems.