中美双边经贸关系：“再创新高”背后，“脱钩”悄悄进行

2023-03-04 09:03

导读

2022年中美双边货物贸易额创历史新高，表明经贸往来仍在两国关系中发挥着“压舱石”作用。但需注意的是，中美双边贸易的稳步恢复，主要由美国国内需求旺盛和价格因素主导，中国在美国国际贸易中的比重实际出现了下降；两国在高科技领域和产业链方面，“脱钩”迹象也日益明显。中国应加强底线思维，同时争取合作机会，为国内产业转型升级争取时间和空间。

作者

倪淑慧

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所助理研究员

崔晓敏

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员

中美经贸往来颇具韧性，但中国产品在美市场份额下降，高科技和产业链“脱钩”迹象值得重视。

2022年美国的国际贸易规模创新高，中美双边贸易也超过贸易摩擦前水平。根据美国商务部数据，2022年美国货物贸易总额为5.4万亿美元，同比增长16.3%，其中出口增长18.4%，进口增长14.9%。在惩罚性高关税和少数政客鼓吹中美“脱钩”的背景下，中美双边贸易依然保持韧性，双边货物贸易稳步上升至6906亿美元，同比增长5.2%，较贸易摩擦前的2017年增长8.7%。其中，美国向中国出口1538亿美元，同比增长1.6%；美国从中国进口5368亿美元，同比增长6.3%。这表明中美两国双边贸易呈现稳步恢复态势，经贸往来仍在两国关系中发挥着“压舱石”作用。

According to the data published by the US Department of Commerce, the value of the goods trade of the US reached $5.4 trillion in 2022, and China-US trade reached a record high of $690.6 billion, up 5.2 percent year-on-year, maintaining the momentum of growth despite the punitive tariffs and the clamor in the US for the "decoupling" of the two economies. The US' exports to China increased 1.6 percent to $153.8 billion, while its imports from China jumped 6.3 percent to $536.8 billion, which indicates that trade and economic ties remain the "ballast stone" of bilateral relationship.

从细分产品看，药品和有机化学品对中美双边贸易恢复均具有拉动作用，电机及电气设备对进出口作用不同，而机械设备则明显拖累双边贸易增长。此外，美国对中国农纺产品出口也出现明显修复。

图源：视觉中国

2022年美国从中国进口的增长，主要由化工类和部分机电类产品拉动。据美国国际贸易委员会HS2位码产品贸易数据，化工类中药品（HS2位码30）和有机化学品（HS2位码29）分别拉动总进口增长1.3个百分点和0.7个百分点，机电类的电机及电气设备（HS2位码85）和汽车及其零部件（HS2位码87）分别拉动了2.0个百分点和0.5个百分点。相反，机械设备（HS2位码84）和橡胶制品（HS2位码40）则分别拖累美国自中国进口0.5和0.4个百分点。

2022年美国向中国出口的增长，主要由农纺产品和化工类产品拉动。其中，农产品中的大豆、玉米等谷物类产品（HS2位码12）和纺织制品中的棉花（HS2位码52）分别拉动总出口增长2.5和1.0个百分点，化工类产品中药品和有机化学品分别拉动了1.7和0.6个百分点。相反，电机及电气设备、矿物燃料（HS2位码27）和机械设备则分别拖累美国对中国出口增长2.3、1.6、1.2个百分点。

图源：新华社

需注意的是，中美双边贸易的稳步恢复，主要由美国国内需求旺盛和价格因素主导，但进口市场份额显示中国产品在美国市场竞争力相对下降。

It should be noted that the strong domestic demand of the US and rising prices are the primary reasons behind the rebound in the China-US trade, while the declining share of Chinese products in US imports shows China's competitiveness in the US is declining.

首先，美国国内需求旺盛带来的贸易规模扩张，是中美双边贸易稳步恢复的主要因素。疫情期间各类纾困和刺激政策、疫情管控放松后报复性消费，叠加货币政策紧缩效果存在滞后性，共同导致2022年美国国内需求大幅上涨。此外，乌克兰危机导致欧洲能源和金属供给不足，美国对欧洲相应出口大幅上涨，出口创收进一步对美国国内旺盛的需求提供有力支撑。受需求因素提振，2022年美国进口增速在2021年高基数基础上继续保持两位数增长，自北美自贸区、东盟、欧盟等贸易伙伴进口均明显增加，甚至较中国增速更快。

First, the buoyant domestic demand of the US has led to an expansion in its foreign trade. The bailout and stimulus policies rolled out during the COVID-19 pandemic, the retaliatory rebound in consumption after the easing of control measures, coupled with the lagging impact of the tightened monetary policy, have boosted demand in the US. In addition, the Ukraine conflict has caused shortages in the supply of energy and metals in Europe. As a result, the US has profited from increased exports to Europe, which shored up the robust domestic demand. Thanks to the strong demand at home, the US reported double-digit growth in imports in 2022.

图源：中国日报

其次，价格因素在推动中美双边贸易稳步恢复中也发挥了较大作用。2022年以来，主要经济体通胀、国际大宗商品价格呈现快速冲高、缓慢回落的态势。原材料价格上涨导致出口企业生产成本上升，并同时大幅提升进出口产品价格。根据国际货币基金组织统计，美国进口价格指数从2021年的78.9上升至2022年的95.1；同期，出口价格指数从91.6上升至108.1。具体到中美双边层面，2021-2022年，美国自中国（含港澳）连续两年进口12692种HS10位码产品，其中7924种产品进口价格较2021年上涨，6056种价格涨幅超过10%；美国向中国（含港澳）连续两年出口6065种HS10位码产品，其中3418种产品进口价格较2021年上涨，2681种价格涨幅超过10%。

Second, since 2022, major economies have been plagued by rampant inflation, with the prices of key commodities soaring high in a short period of time before falling back gradually. The high prices of raw materials have added to the costs of export enterprises, and pushed up the prices of exports and imports. According to statistics of the International Monetary Fund, the US' import price index rose from 78.9 in 2021 to 95.1 in 2022; and during the same period, the export price index jumped from 91.6 to 108.1. As for US-China trade, according to data from the US International Trade Commission, among all products US imported from China, around 62.4 percent have been purchased at higher prices in 2022; and 56.4 percent the products the US exported to China have higher prices in 2022.

最后，中国在美国的国际贸易中比重下降，一定程度上反映了中国产品在美相对竞争力的下降。具体来说，中国在美国货物贸易中的份额逐步下降，面临加拿大和墨西哥等美“近岸”伙伴及越南等“友岸”伙伴的挤出。数据显示，美国货物贸易总额中，中国份额从2020年的14.8%下降至2022年的12.9%，而“近岸”国家加拿大和墨西哥的份额却稳步提升，其中加拿大从2020年的13.9%升至14.8%。在美国进口端，中国份额下降更为显著，2022年占比仅为16.4%，较2017年的21.4%下降5个百分点；而美国“友岸”国家越南的份额则从2017年的2.0%上涨至3.9%，几乎翻了一倍。

Third, the drop of China's share in US trade has reflected the declining competitiveness of Chinese products in the US, with more market share shifting to the US' neighboring countries such as Canada and Mexico, and so-called friend-sourcing partners such as Vietnam. Data shows that China's share in the US goods trade fell from 14.8 percent in 2020 to 12.9 percent in 2022, while Canada's share grew from 13.9 percent to 14.8 percent. In terms of US imports, China's share saw an even steeper decline — decreasing from 21.4 percent in 2017 to 16.4 percent in 2022, while Vietnam's share nearly doubled from 2 percent to 3.9 percent.

图源：新华社

此外，中美在高科技领域和产业链方面出现“脱钩”迹象。

In addition, the past few years have witnessed more signs of China-US decoupling in the high-tech field and industry chains.

一方面，无论是规模增速还是市场份额，中美高科技产品贸易都比非高科技产品和非中国市场表现更差。在美国进口端，2022年从中国进口高科技产品规模同比减少了34.4%，占美国高科技产品进口的市场份额也从2021年的31.2%下降至22.6%。相反，美国从非中国市场进口高科技产品规模同比增加了2%。此外，美国同期从中国进口的非高科技产品规模同比增加25.5%，占美国非高科技产品进口份额从15.6%上升至16.3%。在美国出口端，2022年出口至中国的高科技产品同比减少25.7%，占美国高科技产品出口份额从2021年的14.2%下降至11.6%；而出口至中国非高科技产品同比增长5.5%。

On the one hand, China-US trade in high-tech products has performed worse than other categories of products or compared with other countries. In 2022, the US' imports of high-tech products from China decreased by 34.4 percent year-on-year, with China's share in the US' high-tech imports dropping from 31.2 percent in 2021 to 22.6 percent. In comparison, US imports of high-tech products from other countries grew by 2 percent. As for exports, US high-tech products sold to China decreased by 25.7 percent in 2022, and China's share in US high-tech products exports declined from 14.2 percent to 11.6 percent. The US' exports of non-high-tech products to China rose by 5.5 percent in the same year.

另一方面，中国在美国资本品和中间品贸易中比重持续下降，美国“近岸”和“友岸”国家对中国产业链替代增加。与消费品相比，资本品和中间品贸易是一国参与国际分工和全球产业链的重要方式，其比重下降可能预示着本国在国际分工和产业链中参与度下滑，也预示着该国产业链可能存在与外界“脱钩”风险。

On the other hand, China's share in the US' trade of capital goods and intermediate goods has also declined, and China's position in the industry chains has been partly replaced by the US' nearshore-sourcing and friend-sourcing partners. Trade in capital goods and intermediate goods is an important way for a country to take part in the global division of labor and industry chains, and the decline of this indicates the risk of decoupling. According to statistics of the US International Trade Commission, since the onset of China-US trade frictions and the COVID-19 pandemic, China's share in the US' intermediate goods and capital goods trade has decreased remarkably, with the share of China in US exports dropping from 10.6 percent in 2020 to 9.3 percent in 2022, and the share of China in US imports falling from 17.6 percent to 12.1 percent.

图源：中国日报

据美国国际贸易委员会数据统计，中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情以来，中国在美国中间品和资本品贸易份额出现显著下降。其中，中国在美国资本品和中间品出口中占比从2020年的10.6%下降至2022年的9.3%；在美国资本品和中间品进口中占比更是从2017年17.6%持续下降至2022年的12.1%。这意味着中美两国产业链“脱钩”日益明显。

2023年开年以来，中美关系受“气球事件”影响骤然紧张，显现出当前两国关系的脆弱性和复杂性。尽管政治因素仍对双边经贸造成明显干扰，但2022年双边贸易稳步恢复的态势表明，在经贸领域的务实合作符合两国和两国人民的根本利益，应继续发挥经贸往来在双边关系的“压舱石”作用。与此同时，拜登政府“小院高墙”的科技政策，以及“近岸外包”和“友岸外包”等一系列供应链措施，加剧中美双边贸易中高科技和产业链“脱钩”趋势。

Despite the turbulence caused to bilateral trade by the political tensions, China-US trade rebounded strongly in 2022, which is in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples. But, the Joe Biden administration is seeking to build a "small yard with high fences "in the high-tech sector and shift supply chains to its nearshore-sourcing and friend-sourcing partners in a bid to decouple from China in the high-tech area and industry chains.

竞争与合作将在一段时间内成为中美关系中两个并行不悖的主题。中国既应增强底线思维，做好敢于斗争、善于斗争的准备，也应着力稳定双边关系，争取一切可能的合作机会，为国内产业转型升级争取时间和空间。