麦睿投资二季度市场综述（2023）

经济和利率评论：

美国第一季度 GDP 增长 2.0%，经济继续稳定增长，就业持续强劲，失业率保持在 3.7% 的低水平。领先经济指数® (LEI) 在 22 年 11 月至 23 年 5 月的六个月期间下降了 4.3%，降幅比前六个月（ 22 年 5 月至22 年 11 月）的 3.8% 的收缩幅度还要大。领先指数在过去十四个月中每月均有下降，并继续表明未来经济活动将趋弱。利率上升加上持续的通货膨胀将继续进一步抑制经济活动。预计第二季度 GDP 将小幅增长，但企业联合会预测，美国经济将在 2023 年第三季度至 2024 年第一季度期间收缩。经济衰退可能是由于货币政策持续紧缩和政府支出减少。

经济增长放缓导致通胀持续下降。总体通胀率已降至 4.1%，仅为峰值时的一半。这主要是由于能源价格下跌所致。除去食品和能源的核心通胀率下降较缓，降至 5.2%。第二季度美联储减少了加息频率，仅加息0.25% 至 5.25%；同时预计 2023 年将再加息 0.5%。到目前为止，他们的加息起到了降低通胀并避免经济崩溃的作用。这次调整比2005至07年的加息容易接受的原因之一是，更多的消费者使用30年期固定利率购买房屋，所以不受利率变化的影响。此外，中低端住宅建设供应一直处于短缺，因为相比较高端住宅的盈利较差。房地产市场的疲软存在于办公领域，因为这些商业地产贷款通常是可调整利率，如果无法保证地产的入住率和提高租金，或者地产需要重大维护和修理，那么地产就可能违约。有些违约最近成为了媒体头条新闻，但总的来说影响不大，因为商业地产只占整体经济的一小部分。

债券和被动企业所有权（股票）市场评论：

大盘股标普五百指数从 去年十月的低点继续反弹 20% 以上，第二季度上涨 8%（年初至今上涨 16%）。到目前为止，2022年对经济即将崩溃的担忧并未实现，企业的基本盈利能力保持稳定。市场情绪已从 2022 年的极度悲观转向 2023 年迄今为止的极度乐观。从低点的反弹使市场比 2022 年 1 月 4 日的历史高点仅低 7%。2023 年市场反弹的推动力是 七家最大科技股（苹果、谷歌、英伟达、脸书、特斯拉、亚马逊、微软）的重新乐观，这些股票占该指数的 26%。为了说明标普指数今年迄今的大部分涨幅如何来自这些股票，等比重标普指数仅上涨了 6%，而规模权重（以科技股为主）却增加了 16%大盘股 S&P500指数从 10 月份的低点继续反弹 20% 以上，第二季度上涨 8%（年初至今上涨 16%）。到目前为止，对2022年经济即将崩溃的担忧尚未成为现实，因为企业的基本盈利能力保持稳定。市场情绪已从 2022 年的极度悲观转向 2023 年迄今为止的极度乐观。从低点的反弹使市场水平比 2022 年 1 月 4 日的高点低 7%。2023 年市场反弹的推动力是 7 家最大科技股（苹果、谷歌、英伟达、脸书、特斯拉、亚马逊、微软）的重新繁荣，这些股票占该指数的 26%。为了说明标普指数今年迄今的大部分涨幅如何来自这些股票，等权重标普指数仅上涨了 6%，而规模权重（以科技股为主）却增加了 16%。

这样的乐观情绪来自于财经媒体炒作人工智能的变革性，促使这些股票价格脱离正常逻辑。“AI”这个缩写词听起来像是一个特殊而新颖的东西，但如果你仔细看会发现并没有太多新意或不同之处，只不过是计算机方向的不断进步。因此，虽然这种说法可能有助于华尔街以更高价格出售股票，但真正增加价值的方法是这些技术实现以下目标：1.）增加收入，2.）降低成本，3.）增加资产周转率

历史上的技术通常：

1. 消费者受益，记住阿马拉定律，即我们通常高估技术的短期影响而低估技术的长期影响

2. 并没有总体层面帮助到企业

3. 大量投资者资金的蒸发

其中第二点不是很明显，所以我们扩充阐明一下。每个企业都有大致相同的工具，因此相对位置不一定会有太大变化。沃伦·巴菲特在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司认识到了这一点——摘自他 1985 年的股东信：

多年来，我们可以选择在纺织业务中进行大量资本支出，这将使我们能够在一定程度上降低可变成本。每一项这样的提议看起来都能立即成为赢家。事实上，通过标准投资回报测试来衡量，这些提议通常比在利润丰厚的糖果和报纸业务的相同支出带来更大的经济效益。

但是这些纺织投资所承诺的好处是虚幻的。我们的许多竞争对手，无论是国内还是国外，都在同等加大支出，一旦有足够多的公司这样做，它们降低的成本就成为全行业降价的基准。单独来看，每家公司的资本投资决策都显得具有成本效益且合理；总体来看，这些决定相互抵消并且是非理性的（就像每个观看游行的人都认为如果踮起脚尖就能看得更清楚）。每一轮投资之后，所有玩家在游戏中的资金都增加了，但回报却依然疲软。

换句话说，人工智能在同等比较的情况下没有帮助，除非企业出于某种原因比其他企业更擅长实施它。（但即使企业不是特别擅长，他们仍然必须实施它，否则将落后于其他竞争对手。） 如今，使用 MS-Word 代替打字机并不是一个竞争优势！事实上，人工智能可能会降低许多企业的利润，因为它对表现不佳的企业比对优秀企业的帮助更大，通过创造公平的竞争环境，减少了性能差异。

关于第三点，经常被吹捧的策略之一是避免过度炒作的淘金热，而转向淘金者出售镐和铲子。在人工智能这种情况下就是英伟达，但这种策略是如此众所周知，乐观的估值已经渗透到了“镐和铲”业务中。还记得 Scott McNeely（Sun Microsystems 时任首席执行官）在 2002 年关于互联网泡沫时所说的话：

按照十倍收入的估值，为了给你 10 年的回报，我必须连续 10 年向你支付 100% 的收入作为股息。假设股东允许我这样做，同时假设我的销售成本为零，这对于计算机公司来说非常困难；同时假设费用为零，这对于 39,000 名员工来说确实很难；同时假设我不纳税，这也非常困难；假设你不为股息缴税，这是违法的；假设未来 十年研发为零，我可以维持当前的收入运行速度。完成这一系列的假设以后，还有人愿意以 64 美元的价格购买我的股票吗？你知道这些基本假设有多荒谬吗？你不需要任何透明度，任何脚注。你在想什么？

与英伟达相比，10 倍不算什么，英伟达的股价是收入的 40 倍，未来年收益率为 0.008%！当然，人们期望增长能解决，但这似乎过于乐观了！总的来说，我建议我们不要陷入对人工智能或任何技术的炒作中，因为过度增持该行业更像是一场低概率的赌博。

尽管利率上涨速度放缓，但持续上涨导致债券市场第一季度下跌 0.94%，年初至今回报率降至 2.26%。我继续保持对债券的低配置，并倾向于短期货币市场，以实现“更安全”的资本保护或降低波动性。如果经济活动稳定，债券将继续表现不佳。债券需要一个经济显著恶化的拐点才能表现更好。

公共房地产投资信托基金继续落后于股市。公共房地产投资信托基金受利率上涨影响巨大，因其通常与租户签订长期合同和而融资又是短期的。公共房地产投资信托对办公空间领域的配置较高，该领域经历了一些违约并引发资产风险管理的担忧。麦睿投资对公共房地产投资信托的敞口较低，因为过去几年这些基金的收益率太低，并且从风险调整后的收益来看没有吸引力。

Blackstone Private REIT (B-REIT) 第二季度上涨 0.85%，年初至今的回报率达到 0.35%。他们最近宣布将圣安东尼奥附近的 JW 万豪酒店出售给 Ryman Group，并将一些逻辑仓库出售给 Prologis。这两笔交易的估值均处于溢价，并远高于账面价值，因此增加了基金的价值。

结论：美国经济正在经历一个调整期，其增长速度低于我们在 2021 年的习惯。资产市场正在调整以适应更高的利率和更低的增长速度。更高的利率开始使债券收益率更接近实际（通胀调整后）利率。我们看好可以随着时间的推移增加利润以抵消利率上涨影响的资产。由于通胀风险，我们仍然看好企业所有权和基础设施（尽管在此过程中会出现短期波动），而不是固定收益/债券的违约安全。

Economic and Interest Rate Commentary:

US Q1 GDP was 2.0% as the economy continues to chug along at a stable pace as employment continues to be strong with a low 3.7% unemployment rate.  The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022. The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity.Q2 GDP is forecast slight growth, but the Conference Board is projecting that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.”

The slower economic growth has resulted in inflation continuing to decrease. Headline inflation has dropped to 4.1% which is half of what it was at its peak. This has primarily been due to the fall in energy prices. The core inflation that excludes food and energy has been stickier as it dropped more slowly to 5.2%. In Q2 the Federal Reserve reduced their rate increases with only 1 increase of 0.25% to 5.25%. They have indicated they expect to increase rates another 0.5% in 2023. Thus far their rate increases have done the job of decreasing inflation while not causing an economic collapse. One of the reasons that this adjustment seems to be less painful than the 2005-2007 rate increase period is that in this cycle more consumers purchased their home using a 30-year fixed rate loan, and are not exposed to the rate changes. Also, there has been and continues to be a lack of home building on the lower to mid-end because it’s not as profitable as those on high end. The weakness in the real estate market continues to be in the office space sector as these loans usually have adjustable rates so if they cannot keep the building occupied and raise rents, or if they need major maintenance and repairs, it can be defaulted on and given back to the lender without recourse. Some of these deals have made media headlines recently, but generally these are red herrings as the office space sector is a small sector of the overall.

Bond and Passive Business Ownership (Stock) Market Commentary:

The Large Cap S&P500 index continued its 20%+ rebound from its October low as it increased 8% in Q2(16% YTD). Thus far the 2022 fears of imminent economic collapse have not been realized as the fundamental earning power of companies has stayed stable. The market sentiment has gone from extremely pessimistic in 2022 to shift back to extremely optimistic thus far in 2023. This rebound from the lows has put the market levels 7% below its high on 1/4/2022. The market rebound in 2023 has been driven by the renewed exuberance in the 7 largest technology stocks (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA, META, TSLA, AMZN, MSFT) that make up 26% of the index. To illustrate how the majority of the YTD gains in the S&P index are from these stocks, is the equal weighted S&P index is only up 6% while the size weighted (heavily technology weighted) has increased 16%.

This exuberance has been stoked by the financial media ginning up the narrative that the transformative nature of Artificial Intelligence makes these stock prices detached from logic. The acronym “AI” sounds special and new, but when you look behind the curtain, it is not much new or different other than its incremental improvements in computers. So, while this narrative might help wall street sell securities at higher multiples, the only way to actually increase in value is if these technologies do one or more of the following: 1.) increase revenues, 2.) decrease costs, 3.) increase asset turnover. Technologies throughout history usually:

1. Benefited consumers immensely,     though keep in mind Amara's Law:  We tend to overestimate the     effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in     the long run.

2. Did not help businesses in     aggregate

3. Vaporized large amounts of     investor capital

To expand on that second, since every business has roughly the same tools, the relative positions don’t necessarily change much. Warren Buffett realized this with Berkshire Hathaway – From his 1985 shareholder letter:

Over the years, we had the option of making large capital expenditures in the textile operation that would have allowed us to somewhat reduce variable costs. Each proposal to do so looked like an immediate winner. Measured by standard return-on-investment tests, in fact, these proposals usually promised greater economic benefits than would have resulted from comparable expenditures in our highly-profitable candy and newspaper businesses.

But the promised benefits from these textile investments were illusory. Many of our competitors, both domestic and foreign, were stepping up to the same kind of expenditures and, once enough companies did so, their reduced costs became the baseline for reduced prices industrywide. Viewed individually, each company’s capital investment decision appeared cost-effective and rational; viewed collectively, the decisions neutralized each other and were irrational (just as happens when each person watching a parade decides he can see a little better if he stands on tiptoes). After each round of investment, all the players had more money in the game and returns remained anemic.

In other words, AI doesn’t help on a comparative basis unless a business is better at implementing it than others for some reason. (But even if they aren’t particularly good at it, they still have to implement it, or they will fall behind competitors.) Using MS-Word instead of a typewriter isn’t a competitive advantage today! In fact, AI might well lowermargins for many businesses because it seems to help the mediocre-to-poor performers more than the excellent performers so it levels the playing field. The variance of performance could simply decrease.

On the third point, one of the oft-touted strategies is to avoid the over-hyped gold rush, but instead sell picks and shovels to the forty-niners. In this case that would be Nvidia, but that strategy is so well-known the optimistic valuations have bled over into the pick-and-shovel businesses. Remember what Scott McNeely (then CEO of Sun Microsystems) said back in 2002 about the dot com bubble:

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

10 times is nothing compared to NVDA which is trading at 40 times revenue and a forward annual earning yield of 0.008%! Of course, people are expecting growth to fix that, but it seems ridiculously optimistic! In general, I recommend we do not get caught up in the hype of AI or any technology as overweighting toward this sector is more of a low probability gamble.

 The continued albeit slower increase in interest rates resulting in the bond market to decrease 0.94% in Q2, lowering the YTD return to 2.26%. I have continued to keep low allocations to bonds and have favored shorter term money markets for “safer” capital protection and lower volatility purposes.  Bonds will continue to underperform if economic activity is stable. Bonds need an inflection point where economic activity deteriorates   significantly to perform better. 

Public REITs have continued to lag the stock markets. Public REITs have been hurt by the interest rate increases as they have long term contracts with tenants and shorter-term financing. Public REITs have a higher allocation to the office space sector which has experienced some defaults in this space and this space is a cause of concern to the risk managers of assets. We have low exposure to public REITs as the yield on these have been too low the past few years and not attractive from a risk adjusted basis.  

The Blackstone Private REIT (B-REIT) increased 0.85% in Q2 bringing YTD return to 0.35%. They have made recent announcements to sell a JW Marriott property near San Antonio to the Ryman Group and some logical warehouses to Prologis. Both of these deals are at premium valuations, and significantly higher than the carrying value, therefore increasing the value of the fund.  


Conclusion:The US economy is going through an adjustment period with slower growth than we were accustomed to in 2021. Asset markets are adjusting to higher interest rates and lower growth. Higher interest rates are starting to bring bond yields closer to the real (inflation adjusted) rate. We favor assets that can increase profits over time to offset the effects of rate increases. We still favor business ownership and infrastructure (despite short term bumps along the way) over the default safety of fixed income / bonds due to inflation risk.