摩根大通老板杰米·戴蒙最后的未竟之梦 | 经济学人
1
思维导图作者：
Shulin，女，热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er
02 新手必读
2
Life after JPMorgan
摩根大通之后的生活
英文部分选自经济学人20230715期商业板块
Schumpeter
熊彼特
Life after JPMorgan
摩根大通之后的生活
The last, unfulfilled dream of Jamie Dimon
杰米·戴蒙最后的未竟之梦
Jamie dimon is restless. The boss of JPMorgan Chase has just returned from a long July 4th holiday weekend with his large and growing family: his wife, three daughters, a gaggle of grandchildren. He has little patience for the faff that accompanies a filmed interview—the reason that he, his handlers, a film crew, your columnist and The Economist’s editor-in-chief have gathered at the New York headquarters of America’s biggest bank. Mr Dimon does not want to loiter in the hallway for his “walking-in” shot; nor is he going to wait to be properly miked up and seated in his chair before launching into conversation about public policy. “So, should we do this?” he urges.
摩根大通的老板杰米·戴蒙（Jamie dimon）是个呆不住的人。他刚和家人们一起度过了7月4日美国国庆节的周末长假。戴蒙有一个大家庭，且仍在不断发展壮大：妻子、三个女儿，还有一群喧闹的孙子孙女。他正和顾问、摄制组、熊彼特专栏作者以及《经济学人》总编辑齐聚美国最大银行的纽约总部，完成一场采访拍摄，但他对其中的繁琐毫无耐心。戴蒙不想在走廊里来回闲逛来拍摄他的“出场”镜头，也不打算等戴好麦克风，坐到椅子上之后才开始谈论公共政策。“那，我们现在可以开始了吗？”他催促道。
Doing things is the Dimon way. He is impatient, opportunistic, pragmatic: the type of person to just get on with it. When his 12th-grade calculus teacher left, he taught himself. Fresh out of business school he took a job at American Express, because he wanted to build something rather than merely move money around.
放手去做是戴蒙的行事之道。他耐心有限、见机行事、讲求实际，是那种只管去做的人。12年级时，当他的微积分老师离开后，戴蒙就开始自学。刚从商学院毕业，他便在美国运通找了份工作，他想要有所建树，而不仅仅是把钱转来转去。
What he has crafted over nearly 18 years at the helm of JPMorgan Chase is the banking equivalent of the Palace of Versailles or the Taj Mahal. It is America’s most successful bank—and, with a market capitalisation of $435bn, by far the most valuable in the world. Under Mr Dimon’s stewardship its shareholders have earned a handsome annual return of 10.6%—double that of most other big lenders. Its investment bank ranks in the top three in almost all businesses it cares to compete in. Its commercial bank is the biggest in America. Because it is so large—and because banks in America with more than 10% of all deposits are barred from acquiring more (unless they rescue a failing bank, as JPMorgan did with First Republic in April)—it can grow only slowly.
在执掌摩根大通的近18年时间里，戴蒙所打造的银行大业之宏伟，可以和凡尔赛宫或泰姬陵相媲美。摩根大通是美国最成功的银行，市值高达4350亿美元，是迄今为止全球市值最高的银行。在戴蒙的管理下，摩根大通股东的年回报率极为丰厚，高达10.6%，是大多数大型贷款机构的两倍。摩根大通的投行业务在其愿意角逐的几乎所有业务领域中都排名前三。而摩根大通的商业银行是美国规模最大的银行。并且因其规模过于庞大，只能放缓发展脚步。在美国，存款量超过国家存款总额10%的银行会被禁止获得更多存款，除非是为了拯救某家濒临倒闭的银行，就像摩根大通在4月份收购第一共和银行那样。
Not much left to do, then, for a man prone to doing. (A literal construction project, his bank’s new headquarters on Park Avenue, probably barely scratches Mr Dimon’s itch.) Instead, he has turned his seemingly inexhaustible energies to other problems. He skips over the banking mini-crisis (mostly resolved) or the risk of recession (it could be mild, or maybe not; either way, he worries more about Ukraine and food security in Africa). He is most animated about other topics: social mobility, de-escalating global conflicts and defending capitalism, which he suggests is unfairly maligned. His annual letters to shareholders, once limited to thoughts on management and banking, now contain more policy ruminations than the typical American political campaign.
在这样的情况下，对一个工作狂来说，工作上能做的事情所剩无几。（银行在公园大道建设新的总部，但是这点建筑工程可能根本无法满足他的胃口。）于是，他转而将他那看似无穷的精力放在了其他问题上。他对银行业的小危机和经济衰退的风险置之不理，毕竟，危机几乎都已解决；而衰退可能是温和的，也可能不是，不管是哪种，他更担心乌克兰危机和非洲的粮食安全。他对社会阶层流动性、缓解全球冲突和捍卫资本主义等问题最具热情，认为资本主义受到了不公正诽谤。他的年度致股东信曾经仅限于对管理和银行业的一些想法，但是现在涉及很多对政策的思考，甚至比典型的美国政治活动包含的还要多。
He offers solutions for the problems he most wishes America could solve. For social mobility he would expand earned-income tax credits and returns repeatedly to griping about the cost of education. “We need to do a better job with our community colleges,” he argues. “We should be making it cheaper, not more expensive.”
他为自己最希望美国解决的问题提供解决方案。对于社会流动性问题，他希望扩大收入所得税抵免制度的适用范围，并再三对高昂教育费用表示不满。 “在社区学院方面我们需要做得更好”，他认为，“应该使教育更便宜，而不是更贵。”
He sees the shift towards industrial policy to protect national security as wise. But America must be careful with tools such as export controls. “If it relates to supersonic missiles, I think we should do it. If it relates to holding down the Chinese people, I think we shouldn’t do it.”
他认为，转变工业政策以保护国家安全是明智的做法，但是美国必须慎用出口管制之类的手段。“如果事关超音速导弹，我认为我们该这么做。如果是为了限制东方人，我觉得不该如此。”
Despite his early support for the idea of “stakeholder value”, which considers how companies treat their workers, suppliers, the society at large or the environment, he is no woke capitalist. Rather, he is a pragmatist. All chief executives try to have the best products or services, they need great employees and to keep their customers happy, he argues. “This was just humanising business, that we take care of our customers, or employees or crews or whatever.” That doesn’t make him anything but a “red-blooded, full-throated, free-enterprise, patriotic American”.
尽管早前就支持“利益相关者价值观”，认为企业应该为员工、供应商、整个社会或环境负责，他并非一名“觉醒”资本家。恰恰相反，他是个实用主义者。他认为，要想推出最好的产品或服务，首席执行官就需要雇佣优秀的员工并让客户满意。“这只是使企业变得人性化，我们关心客户、员工、团队或其他种种。”这样的观念让他成为了一个“精力充沛、直抒胸臆、支持自由市场、热爱祖国的美国人”，而非其他任何角色。
注释：
1.woke capitalism：觉醒资本主义。最早由专栏作家Ross Douthat在《纽约时报》的一篇文章中提出，指企业通过宣扬“自由”“进步”等符合千禧年代消费者价值观的观念，维持自身的社会影响力。
2.stakeholder capitalism：利益相关者资本主义。通常指企业除了将其利润最大化外，还必须考虑到其他团体的利益，比如员工、具有批评态度的公众，尤其要兼顾到环境，哪怕有时会让企业利润减少。
（来源：《我们对“利益相关者资本主义”过分期望了吗？》-微信公众号“着陆TouchBase”）
Mr Dimon’s interest in public policy, resolve, resources and ambition all point in one direction: political office. Speculation about a presidential run has bubbled up over the years. But it is an idea he quickly shoots down. “I have never really believed I am particularly suited for it,” he says. “There may be common skills… in terms of administration, management, leadership, but those are not uncommon.”Knowing how to navigate political arenas or how to campaign is harder. Mr Dimon thinks switching from business to politics is tricky. “I think it’s very hard to do. And in fact, if we just look at history, it’s almost impossible.” President Donald Trump was the exception, not the rule. And that is not intended as a compliment. “I would worry about another Trump presidency,” he says. For America to turn inwards and abdicate its position in the world would be a huge mistake.
他对公共政策的兴趣、决心、谋略和抱负都指向一个方向：从政。多年来，有关他要参与总统竞选的猜测不绝于耳，但他很快就否定了这种假设，说道：“我从不觉得自己很适合担任总统一职。也许是有些共通技能，比如行政、管理、领导力等方面，但这些技能并不罕见。”懂得如何在政治舞台上游刃有余或如何开展竞选活动更加困难。他认为从商界转向政界并非易事，“我觉得这很难做成。实际上，纵观历史，这几乎是不可能的。”特朗普总统是个个例，而非常态。但这么说并不是一种恭维。“我会担心特朗普再次当选总统”，他说。如果美国转为内向型国家，放弃在世界上的地位，那将是一个巨大的错误。
Dimon is for ever?
戴蒙永不变？
If not the leader of the free world, perhaps a cabinet secretary? “Maybe one day that will be on the cards,” Mr Dimon muses. “I love my country. To me, my family comes first. But my country is right next,” he explains. “JPMorgan is down here,” he adds, gesturing lower down. The realist in him probably knows an appointment to the Treasury, the most obvious post, is unlikely. The path from Wall Street to government is not as well-trodden as it used to be. Democrats have long been suspicious of high finance, and Republicans have grown more so under the populist Mr Trump. “JPMorgan is the best contribution I can do,” Mr Dimon insists. “We have 300,000 employees. We take care of them well and we give them opportunities.” A politician couldn’t have said it better.
如果不做自由世界的领袖，也许可以当内阁秘书？他若有所思地说：“也许有一天这会成真。”他解释道：“我热爱我的国家。对我来说，家庭第一，国家紧随其后。”“然后才是摩根大通，”他边补充，边用手势示意往下排序。现实主义如他，大概了解自己不大可能得到财政部的职务——一个看起来本该最顺理成章的岗位。从华尔街到政府的道路已不像过去那样好走。民主党人一直对高级金融业心存疑虑，而共和党人也在民粹主义者特朗普的带领下愈发如此。戴蒙坚持说：“摩根大通是我能做的最大的贡献。我们有30万员工，给每个人优厚的待遇和机会。”政客的言辞也不过如此了。
翻译组：
Alex，不务正业的理工男
Yvonne，慢慢理解世界、更新自己
Shulin，女，热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er
校对组：
UU，允许别人做别人，允许自己做自己
Mosy，绘本、演讲、戏剧英文教育践行者
Claire，进进退退，摇摇摆摆，探索世界ing
3
观点|评论|思考
Vicky，少儿英语老师+笔译新人
历史从未终结
1992年福山写的《历史的终结》是西方对于这个世界运行逻辑的看法。当时在苏联解体的大背景下，西方世界对于自己的体制优势极为乐观，尤其是美国，简直是一切美好的代名词。美国梦就是人类的梦想。美国体制，就是世界体制。好多小国建国的时候不需要太费脑筋，照搬美国的就好，毕竟那是世界上最优秀的制度，没有之一。
一晃30年过去了。大梦一场三十年，如今，梦醒了。美国已经连续两届选出来的总统成为世界笑柄，美国是唯一一个国家，选民被赋予了世界使命，你们选出来的人，不单是领导国家，也能左右世界。可是偌大的国家，精英遍地，却连续选出一上台就被断定一事无成的人，而最可笑的是，可预见的未来，这个领导者仍然会从这对卧龙凤雏中产生。
美国究竟怎么了？以我的政治智慧，无法给出判断，但是事实却再次，虽然历经多年但是再次，告诉我们一个真理，这个世界上就不存在完美的制度，只存在不完美的人。人是不完美的，是动态的，那么就没有办法用模式套用的，只能不断的在探索中总结，纠错，改正，前进。不套用别人的成功模式，不断审视自身特点，永远谦卑，永远心怀敬畏。才有可能不断向着更好迈进。
也许在当年福山写出《历史的终结》并被西方很多人奉为圭臬的那一刻，这个结局就早注定，上帝在远方嘴角含笑的看着这一切，轻轻说着：孩子，醒醒，历史从未终结。
4
愿景