中国正在引领对老牌车厂的挑战 | 双语

上世纪初，至少有100家美国公司手工制造昂贵的汽车。规模生产的经济效益使得这个行业逐渐集中到了少数超大公司手中。现在这个过程开始逆转。有人说仅在中国就有300家电动汽车制造商。电池和电机都可以买现成的，也就不需要再花几十亿美元研发好几种内燃机以满足一系列车型的不同要求。一种电池可以有多种尺寸；一种电机可适用于多种车辆，性能特点则用软件微调。因此，较小的产量就可以实现盈利。

AT THE START of the 20th century at least 100 American firms were handmaking expensive cars. The economics of mass production led to the concentration of the industry in a few vast firms. Now the process has gone into reverse. In China alone some say there are 300 EV-makers. Batteries and electric motors, which can be bought off the shelf, obviate the need to spend billions developing several ICEs to serve a range of cars with different requirements. One sort of battery can come in a variety of sizes; one sort of motor will suit a variety of vehicles with performance characteristics tweaked by software. So profitability can be reached from smaller volumes.

给车做一张效果图和一套精美的幻灯片很简单。即便是手工制造几辆车也不难。但是，梅赛德斯-奔驰位于辛德尔芬根（Sindelfingen，靠近该公司位于斯图加特的总部 ）的庞大的56号工厂表明，规模化制造却是极其复杂的。每款高档S级轿车都提供多种级别的内饰，以及从高档木材和皮革到复合制动器的多种选择，需要机器人穿梭车把成千上万个零部件在准确的时间放到装配线上的正确位置。此外还要无线控制电动工具来根据扭矩设置拧紧相应的螺栓。

Creating an artist’s impression of a car and a slick presentation is simple. Even making a handful of cars by hand is not hard. But Factory 56, located at Mercedes-Benz’s mammoth plant in Sindelfingen near the company’s base in Stuttgart, shows that manufacturing at scale is hugely complex. Each high end S-Class is available in several levels of trim and with a variety of options, from exclusive woods and leathers to composite brakes, requiring thousands of parts to be brought to the correct place in the assembly line at just the right moment on robot shuttles. Power tools are controlled wirelessly to tighten the right bolts for torque settings.

新来者面临的挑战是复制这个过程。有利的一点是，电动汽车的零部件比内燃机汽车少，也更易组装。新来者通常只生产一种或几种型号，功能选择也很少。即便是特斯拉也只生产了四款车，不过很快还会上市cybertruck皮卡，而且马斯克承诺推出一款便宜的车型Model 2，起价在25,000美元左右。简洁降低了成本，转化为更高的利润。特斯拉表示，Model 2的生产成本将是它目前最小的车型Model 3的一半。在汽车行业里，面向大众市场的公司的营业利润率可能不超过5%，宝马或梅赛德斯等高端汽车制造商一般把10%视为重大成就，而特斯拉的利润率达到了亮眼的15%左右。

The challenge for a newcomer is to replicate this process. It helps that EVs have fewer parts and are easier to assemble than ICE cars. New entrants often make only one or a handful of models, with few options. Even Tesla makes just four, though the cybertruck, a pickup, will soon be available and Mr Musk has promised a cheap Model 2 starting at around $25,000. Simplicity reduces costs, which translates into higher profits. Tesla says the production costs for its Model 2 will be half those of the Model 3, its current smallest vehicle. In an industry where mass-market firms’ operating margins can be in low single figures and premium carmakers such as BMW or Mercedes have generally counted 10% as a triumph, Tesla’s margin is an impressive 15% or so. ……

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