经济学人商业 || 欧洲首富伯纳德·阿诺特挑战奢侈品帝国的极限
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导读
感谢思维导图作者
Rena,坐标墨尔本的留学生,爱笑爱摄影爱看书
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听力|精读|翻译|词组
The everything-that-shines store
珍宝阁
英文部分选自经济学人20191130期Business版块
LVMH
路威酩轩集团
The everything-that-shines store
珍宝阁
注:everything-that-shines
相关的idom是Not everything that shines is gold.意思相同的还有All that glitters is not gold"(by Shakespeare in The Merchant of Venice), an aphorism stating thatnot to trust everything you see. Gold is a precious metal and is rare. Hence it is very expensive. However, there are other metals which are widely sold in the markets which looks like gold. The phrase also means‘do not be deceived by looks because a person may look innocent but they are not.This can be applied to just about any experience in life.同类改编还有:Not All That Shines Is Not Gold ,"Not all that glitters is gold."
错误理解:"All that shines is not gold." means none of the shiny things in existance are gold. Gold is gold. Gold shines. Therefore something that shines is gold. "All that shines is not gold." is false. "Not all that shines is gold." means somethings which shine are not gold, this is what people are trying to say.
正确理解:All that shines is not gold."= "Not all that shines is gold."会发光的不一定是金子/骑白马的不一定是唐僧/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_that_glitters_is_not_gold
Bernard Arnault, Europe’s richest man, tests the limits of the luxury-conglomerate model
欧洲首富伯纳德·阿诺特挑战奢侈品帝国的极限
注:
Bernard Arnault:伯纳德·阿诺特(Bernard Arnault),1949年3月5日出生于法国,世界奢侈品教父、LVMH集团缔造者、精品界的拿破仑。70岁的他是法国的头号富翁,伯纳德阿诺特以超过760亿美元的身价在2019年《福布斯》全球亿万富豪排行榜名列第4名。依靠法国人与生俱来的艺术细胞,成立了今天的LVMH帝国。他多次被时尚杂志捧为“最佳着装男士”之类的头衔。
2019年3月5日,福布斯发布第33期年度全球亿万富豪榜,伯纳德·阿诺特(Bernard Arnault)的财富比一年前增长了40亿美元,达到760亿美元,依旧排名第4位,连续两年成为欧洲首富
What do you buy the luxury group that has everything? More diamonds, apparently. On November 25th LVMH, already the biggest beast in global luxury, announced it was taking over Tiffany & Co, where Wall Street bond traders sink a few bucks to improve their chances of turning girlfriends into fiancées. The American marque will become the 76th maison of the Parisian group, joining Louis Vuitton, Dior and Veuve Clicquot champagne. How many more can fit under the corporate umbrella of Bernard Arnault, LVMH’s boss and biggest shareholder?
你会给一个无所不包的奢侈品集团买什么呢?当然是钻石。11月25号,全球最大的奢侈品集团LVMH宣布收购珠宝行业巨头蒂芙尼(Tiffany & Co),这个品牌是华尔街的证券交易员向女友求婚时的热门选择。继路易威登、迪奥和凯歌香槟之后,蒂芙尼成为路威酩轩集团旗下第76个品牌。路威酩轩集团的老板以及最大股东伯纳德·阿诺特还会将多少品牌收入囊中呢?
注:
1.作为老牌珠宝奢侈品巨头,蒂芙尼在1961年就已名声大噪,当时奥黛丽·赫本主演的电影《蒂芙尼的早餐》极大的提升该品牌全球影响力。而后,蒂芙尼与卡地亚、宝诗龙(Boucheron)、海瑞温斯顿(Harry Winston)等知名品牌成为奢侈珠宝行业的龙头企业。目前,公司主营产品包括珠宝、钟表、家居和配饰以及香水,在全球经营着300多家零售店。公司员工多达1.4万名,其中包括5000多名熟练工匠。
选自每日经济新闻文章:162亿美元!毛线球卖8万的美国奢侈品巨头,被欧洲首富买下了,具体链接
http://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2019-11-26/1388994.html
2. 香槟:这篇文章“餐桌上聊起“法国香槟”,我们该说些什么?”推荐看下,有很多科普性的知识,香槟酒是什么?为什么只有法国香槟地区的才叫香槟酒?香槟酒的来历,喝法等,很有趣,重在积累
https://www.jianshu.com/p/1797c7e1de93
3. 凯哥香槟
凯歌香槟,葡萄酒中最有故事的香槟(文中提及凯歌夫人的转瓶工艺,很有意思)
4.1140亿元!LV买下世界最贵的珠宝,背后的野心更大
https://xueqiu.com/8321906543/136378304
5.如何看待LVMH收购Tiffany,创始人将成世界首富?LVMH会成为「奢侈品界的迪士尼」吗?
https://www.zhihu.com/question/353083482
The deal is as richly priced asa flawless gem. LVMH will pay $16.9bn including net debt, equivalent to nearly four years’ sales at Tiffany. Nonetheless, the takeover was greeted with the enthusiasm befitting a suitable engagement. Luxury, once little more than a cottage industry dominated by family firms in Europe, has become the preserve of a few giant conglomerates. In recent decades there has been a sense of inevitability when another well-known company has fallen into the clutches of LVMH or its rivals, Kering (home of Gucci and Balenciaga among others) and Richemont (which owns Cartier and Montblanc).
这笔交易“价格不菲”。路威酩轩集团将支付包括净负债在内的169亿美元,这相当于蒂芙尼近四年的销售额。尽管如此,此次收购受到集团热烈欢迎,被认为物有所值。奢侈品曾经仅是一些欧洲家族企业主导的家庭式手工业,如今早已成为一些少数大型企业的专属。近几十年来,当知名公司委身于路威酩轩集团或其对手开云集团(Kering)和历峰集团(Richemont),人们都认为这是大势所趋,不可阻挡。
注:
1.Kering:开云集团(Kering)原名巴黎春天集团(PPR,为“碧诺-春天-雷都”(Pinault-Printemps-Redoute) 的缩略),2013年6月18日经股东大会批准后改为现名,是一家以经营服装及配饰等奢侈品为主的国际上市公司,总部位于法国。旗下拥有大量著名品牌,比如古驰(Gucci)、亚历山大·麦昆(Alexander McQueen)、宝缇嘉(Bottega Veneta)、圣罗兰(Saint Laurent)、巴黎世家(Balenciaga)、布里奥尼(Brioni)、Christopher Kane、、塞乔罗希(Sergio Rossi)、宝诗龙(Boucheron)、宝曼兰朵(Pomellato)雅典表(Ulysse Nardin)、芝柏表(Girard- Perregaux)、尚维沙(JeanRichard)、麒麟珠宝(Qeelin)等。
2.Richrment:是瑞士奢侈品公司,由南非亿万富翁约翰·鲁伯特于1988年建立。公司主要涉及的商业领域是:珠宝、高档手表、配件书写工具,高级皮具,时装等。从2004年以来,按营业额计算,它是世界第二大奢侈品公司,排名在LVMH和开云集团之间。选自搜狗百科
3.Fall into the clutch:落入某人之手
4.如何看待LVMH收购Tiffany,创始人将成世界首富?LVMH会成为「奢侈品界的迪士尼」吗?Ricki的回答,知乎链接
https://www.zhihu.com/question/353083482/answer/909519796
The acquisition cements the place of LVMH at the peak of the luxury world. Its rise has been nothing short of dazzling since Mr Arnault took it over three decades ago. Its shareshave risen threefold in the past five years, including a 60% runsince January. Worth around €206bn ($227bn), LVMH now vies with Royal Dutch Shell as the most valuable firm based in the eu.
此次收购进一步巩固了路威酩轩集团在奢侈品领域的霸主地位。自30年前阿诺特接手该公司之后,其崛起速度简直引人炫目,过去5年来,其股价翻了三倍,仅本年一月至今,就涨了60%。路威酩轩集团目前市值约2060亿欧元(约合2270亿美元),正与荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司争夺欧洲公司市值的头把交椅。
Mr Arnault, whose family owns nearly half of LVMH (and asolid majority of voting rights), is said to be Europe’s richest man. From the gritty town of Roubaix in northern France, he turned a family construction firm to property, then luxury. He snapped up Dior as part of a package ofdistressed textile assets in the 1980s, then seized control at LVMH. The “wolf in cashmere” has all the trappings of a $100bn fortune, from a public art collection housed in a Parisian museum designed by Frank Gehry to his impeccably tailored Christian Dior suits and a couple of newspapers.
阿诺特是欧州首富,其家族掌控着路威酩轩集团近一半的股份并拥有绝对多数表决权。他从法国北部的鲁贝小镇起家,将家族业务由建筑转向房地产,随后进军奢侈品。上世纪80年代,阿诺特收购了濒临破产的法国纺织集团布萨克(Boussac),但项庄舞剑意在沛公,他看中的是布萨克旗下的金字招牌——迪奥,(并以此为跳板在1987年用极低的价格大量购入LVMH的股票),最终控股路威酩轩集团。从巴黎街头由弗兰克·盖里(Frank Gehry)设计的博物馆内公共艺术藏品到剪裁完美的迪奥定制套装以及坐拥好几家报纸,这位“穿着开司米衫的狼”尽显千亿身价的派头。
注释:
1. Frank Gehry:1929年2月28日生于加拿大多伦多的一个犹太人家庭,17岁后移民美国加利福尼亚,成为当代著名的解构主义建筑师,以设计具有奇特不规则曲线造型雕塑般外观的建筑而著称。他现在归化于美国籍,并且生活在洛杉矶,是纽约哥伦比亚大学中有名的建筑教授。盖里的设计风格源自于晚期现代主义(late modernism),其中最著名的建筑,是位于西班牙毕尔巴鄂,有着钛金属屋顶的毕尔巴鄂古根海姆美术馆。
2.看完如下文章你就知道为什么文中用的是snap up?以及它是如何收购boussac以及为什么收购boussac?参考链接:
http://www.xiangrushw.com/news/734433.html
“LVMH dominates a structurally favoured sector,buoyed by globalisation andincome inequality,” says Luca Solca of Bernstein, a research firm. Its success is the result of being the right size—big—in the right business at the right time.
伯恩斯坦研究公司的卢卡·索尔表示:“在全球化以及收入不平等的推动下,路威酩轩集团在这个结构性主导的行业中占有优势。”路威酩轩集团的成功归功于合适的时间、合适的行业以及合适的体量。
Start with the industry. Sales of luxury goods, such as handbags, posh watches and Hermès scarves, have grown by about 6% a year since 1996 according to Bain, a consultancy. It estimates the industry will be worth €281bn this year. Chinese shoppers, who barely featured in 2000 but now account for a third of all sales, have added much of the fizz.
首先我们来谈谈行业。咨询公司贝恩的数据显示,自1996年以来,诸如手袋,高档手表以及爱马仕围巾的销售额年增长约6%。该公司预计2019年全球奢侈品行业预计将将达到2,810亿欧元。2000年时中国消费者尚未显山露水,而如今已占据总销售额的三分之一,为市场增添了大量活力。
Size has brought more rewards. In an industry with high fixed costs—spent on marketing, but also on eye-watering rents for shops on flashy thoroughfares—selling more translates into better margins. LVMH has achieved nearly double the industry’s growth rate in the past two decades, and last year sold over €46bn-worth of extravagance (see chart). That is more than three times the figure for Kering and Richemont, its nearest rivals.
高回报得益于其大体量。奢侈品业固定成本(营销费用以及繁华地段高商铺租金)高昂,销售越多,利润越高。过去的20年间,路威酩轩集团的增长速度几乎达到了行业平均水平的两倍,去年其奢侈品销售额超过460亿欧元。这是其最强对手开云集团和历峰集团销售额的三倍多。
注:A fixed cost is a cost that does not change with an increase or decrease in the amount of goods or services produced or sold. Fixed costs are expenses that have to be paid by a company, independent of any specific business activities.
Mr Arnault emerged as the most obvious buyer for Tiffany in part because scale begets advantages not available to smaller bauble-peddlers. That might seem odd at first. Compared with lesser industries, mergers in the luxury world kick up few opportunities for cost-cutting or synergies. Nobody expects Tiffany watches to be sold in Louis Vuitton stores, for example.
阿诺特先生是蒂芙尼最顺理成章的买家,部分原因是路威酩轩集团规模庞大,具备其他小型企业不具备的优势。虽然乍听起来有些奇怪,但与其他行业相比,奢侈品行业的并购鲜能削减成本或带来协同效应。比如,LV店不可能卖蒂芙尼的手表。
注:协同效应(Synergy Effects)是指并购后竞争力增强,导致净现金流量超过两家公司预期现金流之和,或者合并后公司业绩比两个公司独立存在时的预期业绩高。并购产生的协同效应包括:经营协同效应(Operating Synergy)和财务协同效应(Financial Synergy)。
But analysts think brands can do better within a conglomerate. Take Tiffany. Its shareholders had pestered management to improve margins and raise sales fast, unduly hurrying its turnaround efforts. LVMH says it will give Tiffany time and money, for example to renovate stores and push upmarket. It did something similar with Bulgari, an Italian jeweller. Mr Arnault this week said profits there had risen five-fold since LVMH took it over in 2011. The group does not disclose how each brand is doing (its annual report contains more pictures of jewel-laden models than financial minutiae), easing the pressure on creative types to meet quarterly targets.
但分析师认为,品牌在大集团内的发展前景会更加广阔。蒂芙尼就是明证。之前蒂芙尼的股东们一直催着公司的管理层提高利润率、迅速提高销售额,以及努力扭转近年的微弱增长。路威酩轩集团表示,它将给蒂芙尼时间和资金翻新店铺,开拓高端市场。这与它当年收购意大利珠宝品牌宝格丽(Bulgari)有异曲同工之妙。本周阿诺特声称,自2011年宝格丽被路威酩轩集团收购以来,其利润增长了5倍。该集团并没有进一步透露旗下每个品牌的经营情况(其年报中珠光宝气的模特的篇幅远大于其财务细节)。这样做也减轻了创意型品牌实现季度目标的压力。
Scale has more mundane advantages, too. Conglomerates have more clout when negotiating, for example, with landlords of new malls in China. They can browbeat magazines for better advertising rates. Hefty costs associated with building e-commerce sites can be shared.
规模会带来更多优势。例如,在与中国新开的商场业主谈判时,大集团更有话语权。他们可以恫吓杂志社以获得更好(低)的广告费。开设电子商务网站的巨额成本也可以得到分摊。
Such advantages suggest more consolidation. But there are limits for LVMH and others. One is supply. The timeless brands that conglomerates crave by definition need a long history, and these are relatively few. Those that remain independent, such as Chanel or Rolex, preserve that status fiercely. Mr Arnault has got round this by subtly expanding the scope of luxury, for example by branching out into hotels.
以上种种优势都表明收购会继续进行。但路威酩轩集团和其他集团也面临诸多限制。其一是供应(好的标的太少)。大集团所渴求的是历史悠久的品牌,而此类企业相对较少。那些仍保持独立的品牌,如香奈儿(Chanel)或劳力士(Rolex),则会毫不动摇地保持“独善其身”。阿尔诺先生巧妙地扩大了奢侈品的范围,将他的收购扩展到了酒店,从而避开了这种限制。
Another limit, which is particular to LVMH, is whether any group can handle so many different businesses. In other industries, conglomerates are regarded as unwieldy and have fallen out of fashion. Kering slimmed down by spinning off Puma, a sportswear brand, last year. So far the mood is for building empires, not dismantling them. Some wonder if Richemont and Kering might merge to boost their prospects.
其二是大集团应该如何应对如此纷繁复杂的业务,这一点对于路威酩轩集团来说尤为重要。在其他行业,大集团被诟病架构过于庞大,很难管理,很多都已成昨日黄花。去年,开云集团出售了旗下运动品牌彪马(Puma),成功瘦身。迄今为止,该行业的理念一直是建立帝国,而非拆解帝国。不知未来历峰集团和开云集团是否会合并以提升未来前景。
LVMH is not without challenges. The luxury sector’s future is uncertain. Growth in China will not last for ever, especially if trade tensions continue. Even Dom Pérignon drinkers feel the impact of recessions. Marketing has had to evolve to attract millennials who care about Instagram and sustainability. More shopping is happening online, where mastodons like Amazon and Alibaba lurk.
路威酩轩集团未来也并非没有挑战。奢侈品行业的未来并不明朗,中国市场的增长不会永远持续下去,尤其是贸易紧张局面或将持续。就连香槟王(Dom Pérignon)的饮者也感受到衰退的影响。市场营销必须与时俱进,从而吸引关注Instagram的消费者以及可持续性的千禧一代。线上购物持续增长,而此行业则巨头云集,譬如亚马逊和阿里巴巴就蛰伏于此。
注释:
1.香槟王(Dom Pérignon)
2.LVMH2018财报透露出了它面临的三个挑战
1.无处不在的Louis Vuitton或将降低品牌的吸引力
2.Sephora的中国发展受限于处于垄断地位的阿里巴巴
3.Hennessy的盈利能力取决于消费者的饮酒习惯
具体链接http://news.efu.com.cn/newsview-1270186-1.html
Perhaps half the firm’s profits come from a single brand, Louis Vuitton. Mr Arnault has made it clear that LVMH is a family firm and that one of his children (four of whom work in the business) will take over. At 70, he remains firmly in charge. But as time passes, the question of whether his heirs have inherited his talent for flogging objects of desire will come into focus.
也许公司半数利润来自于一个品牌---路易威登(Louis Vuitton)。阿尔诺先生已经明确表示,作为家族企业,他的一个孩子将接管(其他四个孩子将在家族企业里任职)路威酩轩集团。现年70岁的他依旧独揽大权。但是随着时间的流逝,继承人是否遗传了他的销售天赋将成为人们关注的焦点。
注:
1.Come into focus
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/academic/focus2#focus2__328
2.Frog:(UK informal)to sell, especially quickly or cheaply
And can luxury continue to sell to ever more people yet retain its cachet? So far it has. But the industry Mr Arnault helped create is young,despite the timeless quality it seeks to exude. It has thrived by spending extravagantly to get people to buy beautiful foreign things they do not need. It is the archetypal business model of the times. But what if times change?
而且,奢侈品是否仍能做到既销量见长还声名不落呢?截至目前,情况尚未发生变化。尽管奢侈品行业追求永恒的品质,但实际上这个行业还很年轻。该行业当今典型的商业模式是:通过大肆宣传从而引导人们购买华而不实的外国商品。但要是世道变了,该模式还能一直持续下去吗?
翻译组:
Celine,女,英专,外应MA已录取
Yao,男,准英专研究生,二笔三口
Michael,男,CATTI二口,互联网民工
校对组:
Hannah,女,教书匠,经济学人粉丝
Monica,女,第一名骨子里的理想主义者
VeRy,男,电气民工,经济学人资浅爱好者
3
观点|评论|思考
本次感想
Alan,男,金融工程硕士,经济学人粉丝
LVMH最近几年的飞速壮大有很多原因,从后见之明的角度来看,是因为全球化贸易、中国中产和富豪的飞速壮大、全球近二十年来财富不平等现象愈来愈严重、品牌自身的成功。
如果我们把这些因素逐个来分析一遍的话,第一个因素,全球化贸易慢慢在分崩离析,虽然这并不意味着在中国再也买不到美国商品了,但是关税的增加第一批总会是加在奢侈品上(因为对民生影响很小),或者为了规避关税,就要把供应链设在政策要求的所在地,但这就增加相应成本,另外,去年的杜嘉班纳是一个典型的在贸易战下产生并被民族主义推波助澜的事件,在贸易纷争长期存在的情况下,奢侈品行业有能力安然无恙吗,这也是一个问题;第二个因素中国中产和富豪的飞速壮大从长期来看会持续下去,但是这届政府虽然权力相比前几届大得多但对国有企业改革没有任何兴趣,虽然去杠杆的进程缓解了中国在债务上的系统性隐患,但是总需求看来会持续下滑,以这样优先发展国有企业的经济结构叠加偏紧的货币政策,6%的增速远远不是底部;第三个因素,没有看到任何财富不平等被遏制的倾向,最重要的两个经济体:美国中国都在朝这个方向演进;第四个因素的可能性很多,要展开写。
分析一家企业,一般从宏观、行业、企业的层次来分析比较好,越往下不确定性越大(如果你是超级厉害的stock picker的话另当别论。)
第四个方面,有很多不确定性。文章里面提到了协同效应,两家公司并购,一般总要分析一下两家公司并购之后会带来什么协同效应。因为市面上每年都有很多并购发生,researcher拿这些案例分析之后的效果,一般得出的结论是:横向并购最好,纵向次之,跨行业并购效果最差。横向并购就是两个企业做的是相同相似的业务的话,产生的协同最好;横向就是并购上下游企业;跨行业就是煤炭企业并购造纸厂。横向效果最好的原因可能是两家公司的公司治理有差别,但因为做的业务相同,好的公司的公司治理模式可以移用到较差的公司上,从而升级其产品线。LVMH的产品设计等方面显然超过Tiffany,当然这方面也可能是因为Tiffany的管理层在面对激烈竞争情况下做了短视和过于激进的策略才导致的产品竞争力下滑,但是无论如何在LVMH的羽翼下它能得到更好的升级,同时也免去了每个季度earnings call的狂轰滥炸。但是隐忧同样明显,美股已经到了历史最高峰的时刻了,连美联储都不得不今年降息三次以避免衰退出现,在最后的狂欢里高位出价买Tiffany,很自然的疑问是会不会太贵了?标准回答是根据Tiffany在未来十年的现金流估算,价格在120,出价135,每股15是协同后带来的价值提升。但是现金流估算没有考虑衰退之后整个行业的收入都会大幅度下滑。并购最要命的就是出价过高。赢家的诅咒不停地被提及,但是一遍又一遍地在上演。另外还有别的问题,如Arnault已经70岁了,继任者是不是有他父亲一样的能力?LVMH已经大得离谱,似乎已经到了需要寻找其他增长点的阶段了,探索其他领域的增长点会否产生大量失败?或只是短期阵痛?
总结一下,全球的不平等现象有利于LVMH,但中国的经济发展和全球贸易倒退对整个奢侈品行业偏负面,单独看LVMH发展的话有积极也有隐忧的地方,最不利的地方在于这次并购出价过高。
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