经济学人商业 || 沃达丰的“G点”探寻之路

Vodafone’s search for the G-spot

沃达丰的“G点”探寻之路

注释：

G spot: a sensitive area inside a woman’s vagina that is thought to give sexual pleasure when touched

Why telecoms firms view 5G with trepidation

面对5G，电信公司缘何战战兢兢

The global telecoms boom that reached its zenith almost two decades ago was made for satire. It united two of the most intoxicating technologies of all time, the mobile phone and the internet. It generated the biggest wave of value-destroying takeovers the world had ever seen. Its apex, the £22.5bn ($35bn) sale of third-generation (3g) wireless spectrum in Britain in 2000, was such a humdinger that the boffins who devised it described it, with a Pythonesque flourish, as the most successful auction since the Praetorian Guard sold the Roman Empire to Didius Julianus in 193ad.

全球电信产业在差不多二十年前就达到巅峰，但这段繁荣时期却颇具讽刺意味。在这段时期，有史以来两大最令人沉醉的技术--手机与互联网技术融合在了一起；同时，前所未见规模空前的贬值收购浪潮也大肆兴起。2000年，英国的3G无线频谱以225亿英镑(350亿美元)成交，这次风光无限的拍卖标志着这场收购浪潮达到顶点，设计参与这次拍卖的各路专家，以一种超现实主义的夸赞口吻，号称这是有史以来第二大最成功的拍卖，第一次是公元193年罗马禁卫军将罗马帝国卖给尤利安努斯。

注：

1. Didius Julianus：公元193年3月28日，罗马皇帝佩蒂纳克斯被叛乱的禁卫军所杀，这些士兵毫无纪律，也没有准备好推举谁来继任皇位。为了获得好处，叛乱的士兵决定拍卖皇位。在自己妻子和女儿的怂恿下，56岁的元老尤利安努斯来到军营的城堡下，同佩蒂纳克斯的岳父提尔皮西阿努斯（Sulpicianus）展开竞争，提尔皮西阿努斯先答应给每位士兵五千迪纳厄斯，而尤利安努斯急于取得皇位，一下子开价六千两百五十迪纳厄斯，军营门立刻打开，士兵拥立尤利安努斯为皇帝，并且要求他不得伤害提尔皮西阿努斯，以示拍卖的公证。

2. Pythonesque/ (ˌpaɪθəˈnɛsk) /：（adjective）denoting a kind of humour that is absurd and unpredictable; zany; surreal，意指幽默的，奇异的和超现实主义的

3. 英国4G频谱拍卖仅获35亿英镑与2000年3G频谱拍卖时获得的225亿英镑相差甚远

http://tech.ifeng.com/3g/detail_2012_12/07/19948930_0.shtml

Vodafone, a British mobile operator active across Europe, epitomised the madness of the time. Its £112bn hostile takeover launched in 1999 of Mannesmann, a German rival, was a gripping epic that went on for months—partly against the backdrop of the Savoy Grill, a posh London eatery where both sides mercilessly skewered each other. Vodafone bid almost £6bn over 150 rounds for its British 3g licence, more than any other firm. Then came the telecoms bust of 2001, almost as abrupt as the end of Didius Julianus, whose reign lasted all of nine weeks. It still haunts Vodafone today. The company’s return on assets, in lofty double digits until 2000, has been negligible or negative every year since but one.

沃达丰，一家业务遍布欧洲的英国移动运营商，是那个疯狂时期的缩影。1999年，沃达丰斥资1120亿英镑对其德国竞争对手曼内斯曼（Mannesmann） 展开恶意并购，这场世纪并购持续数月，堪称扣人心弦的史诗--其部分谈判在伦敦奢华的萨沃伊餐厅进行，双方恶意抬价，毫不留情。为获得英国3G牌照，沃达丰累计参与150多轮拍卖，出价约60亿英镑，远超其他公司。2001年，全球电信行业一片萧条，突如其来之势，堪比在位才9个星期就一命呜呼的尤利安努斯。直至今日，沃达丰都未能摆脱这场危机的阴影。2000年之前，沃达丰每年的资产收益率都十分丰厚，始终保持在两位数，而此后要么是微不足道要么为负，只有一年例外。

注：史上第一并购：

史上第一并购案告诉你：有钱真的可以为所欲为

Vodafone’s protracted dark ages stem from a problem common throughout Europe. Telecoms firms have built the networks over which social media, emails, cat videos and other marvels of communication flow, but the sums customers pay to use them has shrunk relentlessly. Understandably, that makes the companies wary of splashing out fortunes on the next mobile lottery, building fifth-generation (5g) wireless networks. Yet they face a prisoner’s dilemma. If none of them takes part, they could all avoid a huge bill. If only one does, it will clean up. If all of them do, they all suffer. Once again Vodafone is in the thick of the action. This time its strategy gives an inkling of how to avoid the worst of the pitfalls.

沃达丰漫长的黑暗时代源于在欧洲普遍存在的问题。电信公司搭建了一个通信网络，集合了社交媒体、电子邮件、猫咪视频、以及其他诸多堪称奇迹通信流，然而用户在这些服务上面的总支出却在不断下降。如此，又要砸下重注，才能抓住又一次移动业务的投资机会—建立第五代（5Ｇ）无线网络，电信公司表现得小心翼翼也就不难理解了。不过，他们还面临着囚徒的窘境。倘若各家电信公司都不参与，便都可以省下一笔巨额费用。而倘若只有一家参与，他则将独占鳌头大赚一笔。倘若所有电信公司都参与，则会一起遭殃。沃达丰又一次置身漩涡之中。但这次，它的策略会提示众人如何躲开最糟糕的陷阱。

To put the promise and perils of 5g into perspective, go back a few generations—to 2g, which turned the world into an interconnected talking shop. That technology generated huge profits for mobile pioneers like Vodafone. It could not, however, support enough data to enable video calls, photo-sharing and other mobile internet use that customers wanted. That gave rise to 3g.

为了更好地理解5G的前景与风险，我们需要往前追溯--2G把世界变成了一个相互连接的清谈场。2G技术为诸如沃达丰这样的移动先驱带来了巨大收益。然而，2G的数据传输不足以实现视频通话、照片共享，和其它用户想要的移动互联功能。于是，3G应运而生。

As Ferry Grijpink of McKinsey, a consultancy, puts it, the telecoms firms were on the right track with their bets on 3g. But they got two things wrong: the timing, and their ability to make money from it. It took Canada’s BlackBerry, and Apple, maker of the iPhone, to bring mobile internet browsing to the masses. Instead of benefiting companies like Vodafone that built the networks, Apple reaped most of the rewards, as did search engines like Google and social networks such as Facebook. During the current decade, 4g (and lte) have provided enhanced versions of 3g, with much faster data speeds and loading times. But in rich countries fierce competition between telecoms firms has caused them to offer bigger, often unlimited data plans at low cost, hammering profitability. This is especially true in Europe, where Mr Grijpink counts 26 big mobile operators, covering a similar-sized territory as America’s four big providers (soon to become three). Average monthly revenue per customer has fallen from $35 in 2006 to around $20.

正如麦肯锡咨询顾问费里•格雷杰平克（Ferry Grijpink）所言，电信公司押宝3G无疑是明智之举。但是，他们搞错了两件事：时机及赚钱能力。将手机上网浏览业务带进千家万户的是加拿大的黑莓、iPhone 的制造商苹果。沃达丰之类搭建通信网络的电信公司其实并未能从中获益，反而是苹果、谷歌之类的搜索引擎公司、以及Facebook之类的社交网络公司抢夺了大部分收益。近10年来，4G（和长期演进技术）具有更快的数据（传输）速度和加载时间，提供了比3G更好的服务。但发达国家电信公司之间竞争激烈，迫使他们以低价提供流量更多、甚至不限流量的套餐，导致利润受损。这种情况在欧洲尤甚，格雷杰平克统计了26家大型移动运营商，它们覆盖的区域与美国4大（马上要变成3大）移动运营商差不多规模，但平均每个用户每月贡献的业务收入（ARPU）却从2006年的35美元降至目前的20美元左右。

There are patterns in this potted history. In his book, “The 5g Myth”, William Webb, a consultant, writes that a new generation of mobile connectivity has emerged every decade. As a rough guide, he says each one provides a tenfold increase in data speeds, say from two kilobits a second with 2g, to two megabits a second with 3g to 20 megabits a second with early 4g. And telecoms folklore has it that the even numbers (2g and 4g) do better than odd ones.

这段不长的移动通信技术进化史自有其定式。咨询顾问威廉•韦伯(William Webb)在其著作《5G神话》(“The 5G Myth”)中写道：每隔十年就会出现新一代移动通信系统，而每一代数据传输速度都会比前一代快10倍。他列出了大致的数据供参考：从2G的每秒2千比特(Kb/s)，提升到3G的每秒2兆比特(Mb/s)，再发展为4G初期的每秒20兆比特(Mb/s)。电信业中流传着一条未成文的定律：偶数代的移动通信系统(2G和4G)比奇数代的性能更好。

The hype is that the arrival of 5g will break the pattern. It is coming less than a decade after 4g was widely adopted. It promises to bring a 50-fold improvement in data speeds (say, one gigabit a second). And the hope is that it will be revolutionary, bringing benefits such as immersive gaming, augmented-reality glasses, factories of the future and even remote surgery. Already, the global industry is spending nearly $160bn a year upgrading towards 5g, and 22 5gnetworks are up and running.

各界大肆炒作，称5G的到来将打破这个定式。4G大范围推广使用还不到十年，5G时代已经拉开帷幕。5G时代，数据传输速度会提高50倍 (比方说每秒1千兆比特（Gb/s)。5G技术的应用有望给各个行业带来颠覆性变革，惠及各行各业，譬如开发浸入式场景游戏、研造AR眼镜、创建未来工厂甚至支持远程手术。目前，全球电信业每年花费近1600亿美元用于5G系统升级,22个5G网络已经建成投入运行。

Still, scepticism is in order. People are not clamouring for faster data, because 4g gives them enough already. After studying the internet usage of reporters at the Wall Street Journal, academics found that they use only a fraction of their available bandwidth, even while watching several videos at once. Much of the industrial logic of faster connectivity, such as greater use of sensors in factories, can be supplied by 4g networks. No device exists that makes a compelling business case for 5g. Mr Webb invokes the aerospace industry to warn of the perils of betting on ever-faster speeds. “5g could end up being like Concorde—a superb feat of engineering but of limited value to all but a small minority.”

尽管如此，众人还是免不了对5G技术持怀疑态度。大家并没有要求上网速度更快，因为4G完全可以满足大家的日常需求。学者在研究《华尔街日报》记者的互联网使用情况后发现，即使在同时观看多个视频的情况下，他们也只用到带宽的一小部分。大部分现代产业系统追求的缩短网络和设备之间的时滞（提高人机交互的效率），例如工厂里要求传感器提供更精细的实时数据，4G都完全可以做到。目前来看还没有一种设备迫切需要5G技术的支持来达到其商业目的（换言之，目前没有5G的用武之地）。韦伯用当年航空业的例子“协和号客机”来提醒电信公司，砸下重金一味追求传输速度具有风险。“尽管‘协和号客机’是一项工程壮举，却只对少数人有意义。5G很可能会步其后尘。”

Awaiting renaissance

等待复兴

5G has already come at a cost to Vodafone. This year it slashed its dividend, partly to pay for a pricey spectrum auction in Germany. But like many of its peers, it sees 5g as a way to revitalise revenue growth. It says the new technology will support many more devices at home and at work than 4g does, will lower the cost to Vodafone of handling a lot of data, and improve the reliability of communications in everything from cars to hospitals. Its newish boss, Nick Read, is hoping to form a closer relationship with customers, who increasingly see wireless connectivity as a commodity, by offering tailor-made 5g services. He is also lobbying governments to spur investment (rather than competition) to avoid a 3g-style fiasco. He is cutting his own infrastructure costs by striking network-sharing deals with mobile operators in Britain, Spain and Italy.

5G的到来已经让沃达丰付出了代价。今年大幅削减了股息，部分原因是为了支付德国高昂的频谱拍卖。但与许多同行一样，沃达丰将5G视为恢复收益增长的一种方式。沃达丰表示，无论是在家还是在公司，5G能比4G支持更多设备，从而降低公司处理大量数据的成本，并提升从汽车到医疗等众多行业数据通信的可靠性。沃达丰的新老板尼克·里德（Nick Read），希望通过提供量身定制的5G服务与客户建立更紧密的联系，因为客户越来越视无线通信为一种商品。同时，里德还在游说政府刺激投资（而不是鼓励竞争），以避免3G式惨败；还与英国、西班牙和意大利的移动运营商达成网络共享协议，以削减自己的基础设施成本。

Those are good ideas that may ease the 5g strain. But until the equivalent of a “killer app” comes along to bring the benefits of 5g to billions, it is not clear who will make much money from it. It is up to the telecoms firms to show that they can defy history.

这些都是可能缓解5G压力的好主意。除非出现一款“杀手级APP”，将5G的收益提升至数十亿美元，否则难以估量谁将从中大量获利。能否改写历史（的旧规）取决于（如今）电信公司之所为。

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