经济学人商业 | 迪士尼的未来

A disturbance in the force

搅动原力

注：

原力是“星战”系列电影中的核心概念，是作品中虚构的、超自然的而又无处不在的神秘力量。

Will “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” rebalance Disney’s universe?

《星球大战9：天行者崛起》会重新平衡迪士尼宇宙吗？

Getting the franchise right is crucial to Disney’s future in theme parks, toys and streaming

总结反思“星战”系列对迪士尼主题公园、玩具和流媒体的未来至关重要

THIS WEEK “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” will dominate the global box office, and will probably delight fans across the galaxy. Yet the “Star Wars” franchise has not been nearly the success story for its owner, Disney, as its other blockbuster factory, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which this year produced the highest-grossing film of all time, “Avengers: Endgame”. The story of why that may be is worth telling, because getting “Star Wars” right would further Disney’s long-term ambitions across its businesses, from toys and theme parks to its latest endeavour, streaming television.

本周，《星球大战9：天行者崛起》将在全球上映，也令全球的影迷们欣喜不已。然而“星战”系列远不如迪士尼旗下另一家大片工厂漫威电影宇宙（Marvel Cinematic Universe）来得成功。今年，漫威制作的《复仇者联盟4：终局之战》成为史上最卖座电影。其中原因值得深究，因为总结反思“星战”系列将进一步推动迪士尼的长期商业规划，包括玩具、主题公园以及最新发力的流媒体业务。

注：

迪士尼流媒体业务：Disney+登场，开启流媒体“拉新”总动员

http://tech.sina.com.cn/csj/2019-11-13/doc-iihnzhfy8857806.shtml

Granted, Disney’s returns from “Star Wars” would be the envy of any Hollywood studio. Disney acquired Lucasfilm, the franchise’s owner, from its creator, George Lucas, for $4.1bn in 2012. The four “Star Wars” films it has made since then have grossed nearly $5bn in ticket sales. Disney has also hauled in billions in sales of merchandise, theme-park passes and promotional tie-ins. It created a live-action “Star Wars” television series, “The Mandalorian”, to launch its new streaming service, Disney+.

诚然，迪士尼从“星战”系列中获得的收益会让所有好莱坞电影公司艳羡不已。迪士尼于2012年以41亿美元从卢卡斯创始人乔治·卢卡斯（George Lucas）手中收购卢卡斯影业，获得星战特许权。此后，迪士尼出品的四部“星战”系列电影为其赚得近50亿美元的票房。迪士尼也通过其产品、主题公园门票和促销广告赚得数十亿美元。迪士尼还制作了星战衍生剧集真人版《曼达洛人》，为其新的流媒体平台Disney+的上线造势。

注：

1. 卢卡斯影业——《星球大战》的前世今生

https://weibo.com/p/1001603929413975710270?pids=Pl_Official_CardMixFeedv6__4&feed_filter=23

2. 版权详情：迪士尼收购卢卡斯影业《星球大战》系列2015年复活

https://www.xzbu.com/6/view-3796798.htm

3，迪士尼出品的四部包括两部后传电影，原力觉醒和最后的绝地武士，正在第三部正史后传，天行者崛起，已经被确认为最后一部正史电影。此外也已经上映了两部外传电影。

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2019-12-15/kathleen-kennedy-lucasfilm-the-last-jedi-the-mandalorian

4.Promotional tie-ins：Promotional tie-ins are a form of marketing promotion in which two or more brands or companies agree to participate in a joint strategy to increase value for both brands regarding exposure or sales, while providing each partner with targeted communication efforts. tie-in是电影公司为了降低成本, 增加利润的手段, 在构思阶段便找好若干商家, 共同设计电影内容, 周边商品与宣传造势的整体案子, 譬如最着名的007 tie-in厂商, 过去是英国汽车Aston Martin, 後来是德国汽车BMW, 同时还有手表, 珠宝, 时装, 名酒等等, 这些商品在电影中亮相或被提及, 称为 “placement”, 而整件事情就叫做 “tie-in”, 另外还可能有各种活动, 譬如徵选和电影主角长相相近的明星脸等, 叫做 “tie-in activities”。

But unlike the Marvel films, which have generally grown more successful with each instalment, the trajectory of “Star Wars” under Disney has been rocky. The first part of the new Skywalker trilogy, “The Force Awakens”, released in 2015, earned $2.1bn at the box office (then the third-highest total in history) and an astounding reported profit of $780m. But the second, “The Last Jedi”, took in 36% less at the box office (and was about half as profitable, say industry sources). And although Disney’s first “Star Wars” spinoff film, “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”, was the second-biggest-grossing movie of 2016, the second, “Solo: A Star Wars Story”, released two years later, reportedly lost $77m (the first “Star Wars” film to lose money). Toy sales have also dropped since 2015; Hasbro attributed a sales slump in 2017 to weaker “Star Wars” trade than expected.

但同为迪士尼旗下影业，漫威系列电影一部比一部成功，而“星战”系列却路途坎坷。2015年上映的新天行者三部曲的第一部《星球大战：原力觉醒》（The Force Awakens），斩获21亿美元票房（成为彼时史上第三卖座电影），据说利润高达7.8亿美元。然而，第二部《星球大战：最后的绝地武士》（“The Last Jedi”）斩获的票房减少了36%。据业内人士称，利润也降低了近一半。虽然其第一部外传《星球大战外传：侠盗一号》 (Rogue One: A Star Wars Story)是2016年度第二卖座电影，但两年后的第二部《星球大战外传：游侠索罗》 (Solo: A Star Wars Story)却亏损了7700万美元，也是第一部亏损的“星战”系列电影。自2015年起，玩具销量也在下降。美国跨国玩具和棋类游戏公司孩之宝（Hasbro）把2017年的销售额暴跌归咎于“星战”系列玩具销售不如预期。

一次看完《星球大战》全系列10部回顾解析

（选自大聪看电影）

The downward trajectory has continued. “Galaxy’s Edge”, a theme-park attraction that was years in the making, has failed to draw the hoped-for huge crowds, a rare miss for Disney. And after the failure of “Solo” Bob Iger, the company’s chief executive, announced a hiatus in “Star Wars” films after “The Rise of Skywalker” completes the trilogy. Mr Iger has said the company moved too fast in churning out “Star Wars” films; after “The Rise of Skywalker”, there will not be another “Star Wars” theatrical release for at least three years, and possibly longer.

下跌趋势仍未停止。全球首座“星球大战：银河边缘”主题乐园耗时数年才建成，但并未像预期那样吸引大量游客，这对迪士尼少来说是一个罕见的失误。《星球大战外传》失利之后，迪士尼首席执行官鲍勃•艾格（Bob Iger）宣布在新天行者三部曲的终章《星球大战：天行者崛起》完结之后，迪士尼会暂停“星战”系列电影。他表示公司“星战”系列电影过于急功近利。今后三年，甚至更长时间内，都不会有“星战”系列电影上映。

The Marvel Cinematic Universe, in contrast, has been an increasingly reliable money machine since its first film, “Iron Man”, appeared in 2008. Only one of the sequels has failed to outperform its predecessor at the box office. And Marvel is stepping up the pace of production: in 2019 it released three films; in 2021 it will release four. Why has “Star Wars” not done as well?

相比之下，自2008年漫威系列首部电影《钢铁侠》上映以来，漫威电影宇宙便日益成为一棵稳定的摇钱树，只有一部电影上映之后票房未超过前作。而且漫威还在加快电影生产速度，仅2019年就有三部电影上映，2021年将会有四部上映。为什么“星战”系列电影却相形见绌？

One reason is mismanagement. Mr Iger has said that Disney tried to do too much too quickly. Across the five films made so far (including “Rise of Skywalker”), five directors were fired or in effect replaced. Two of the pictures required expensive reshoots. At least two films were pushed back six months from their initial release dates. A planned trilogy by Rian Johnson, director of “The Last Jedi”, seems to have been shelved. Another set of three, from “Game of Thrones” showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, was cancelled in October (though this was partly attributable to their decision to sign a lucrative development deal with Netflix). The Marvel Cinematic Universe, by comparison, was carefully plotted years in advance over the course of the past decade. It has seen no such redos.

其中一个原因是管理不善。艾格表示迪士尼的做法过于急功近利。迄今为止，包括《天行者崛起》在内，“星战”系列制作了五部电影，但这五部电影的导演全被开除或者替换。两部电影需要重拍，成本高昂。至少两部电影延期半年上映。本来计划由《最后的绝地武士》导演莱恩·约翰逊（Rian Johnson）所指导的三部曲似乎也处于搁置状态。迪士尼与大卫·贝奥武夫（David Benioff）和D·B·威斯（D.B. Weiss）合作的三部曲也在10月份取消，这二人都是《权力的游戏》剧集主管，合作取消的部分原因是二人决定与奈飞签订利益丰厚的开发协议。相比之下，漫威电影宇宙过去十年来未雨绸缪，精耕细作，从未有过重拍这种事。

Another possible reason is that “Star Wars” has not travelled as well as Marvel’s superhero films. China, now the world’s second-largest cinema market, has proven especially difficult terrain. The first three “Star Wars” films, released between 1977 and 1983, were not shown in Chinese theatres. The prequel trilogy, which spanned 1999 to 2005, was released before China’s cinema-going boom. As a result, Chinese audiences’ first real exposure to “Star Wars” in the cinema was “The Force Awakens”, the seventh entry in the Skywalker saga. By then the mythology had already become quite complex (and the original heroes very old). Disney’s spinoff films were also both prequels to the film of 1977.

另一个可能的原因是“星战”系列没有漫威超级英雄系列深入人心，更是难以打入世界第二大电影市场——中国。1977年到1983年的三部正传并未在国内上映。1999年到2005年上映的三部前传也没能赶上中国电影发展热潮。因此，中国观众真正接触到的第一部“星战”系列电影是《星球大战：原力觉醒》，而这已经是星球大战天行者传奇的第七部了。这时候的星战故事情节和角色关系脉络已经非常复杂（初代英雄们也都老了）。迪士尼出品的两部星战外传电影都是1977年首部电影的前传。

The Marvel Cinematic Universe, meanwhile, came along as the Chinese cinema business was taking off. “Avengers: Endgame” took in $660m in ticket sales in China in 2019, making it the fourth-most successful film in the country’s history. It also outperformed the previous “Avengers” film, “Infinity War”, by 77%. “The Force Awakens” yielded just $125m in ticket sales, and each subsequent “Star Wars” movie made less. “Solo” bombed in China as it did elsewhere, bringing in only $16m.

而与此同时，漫威电影也伴随着中国电影业的蓬勃发展而发展。2019年，《复仇者联盟：终局之战》的中国票房高达6.6亿美元，排名中国影史票房第四，赶超前一部《复仇者联盟：无限战争》77%。而《星球大战：原力觉醒》当年只取得1.25亿票房，此后，该系列更是一部不如一部。《星球大战外传：游侠索罗》全球票房扑街，在中国仅取得1600万票房。

Yet there is still plenty of hope for the franchise. With its new films, Disney made a concerted effort to bring more diversity to the “Star Wars” universe. The ostensible hero of the franchise is now a woman. Her co-stars are black, Guatemalan-American and Vietnamese-American. The core of these films—the tension and conflict between Jedi warrior Rey and evil Sith aspirant Kylo Ren—is a compelling human drama. “The Mandalorian” has also shown that Star Wars can tell much smaller stories than those of galaxy-wide good and evil, as well as stories not about the Skywalker family. A supporting character in the show, “Baby Yoda” (so dubbed by audiences), is one of Google’s most queried terms in America of 2019—even though it did not appear on screen until November.

但“星战”系列未来仍然可期。迪士尼在后续集中全力打造更具多样化的星球大战版图。现主线英雄是一位女性，其他主演有黑人、有危地马拉裔美国人以及越南裔美国人。这几部电影围绕绝地武士蕾依（Rey）和西斯反派凯洛·伦（Kylo Ren）之间的紧张冲突，剧情可谓扣人心弦。《曼达洛人》所讲的都是小故事，不是横亘整个银河系的善与恶那般宏大，并且情节不再围绕天行者家族。尽管《曼达洛人》11月才上映，剧中一配角“尤达宝宝”（观众给起的昵称）却荣登谷歌2019年美国热搜榜。

As Yoda might say, a bright future, Disney still can see. Disney+, the streaming service, allows it to establish a direct relationship with “Star Wars” fans, making sudden hits like “Baby Yoda” more valuable than they would have been in an earlier era. It introduces more young viewers to the “Star Wars” universe (they can watch the other films on Disney+), and to toys, theme parks and the rest of Disney’s wares. And Disney+ also can introduce fans of all its other content, including Marvel and Pixar films and the animated classics, to “Star Wars”.

正如尤达可能会讲的那样，迪士尼还是能看见光明未来的。究其原因，流媒体Disney+将迪士尼与“星战”粉丝们直接联系起来，令“尤达宝宝”等突然走红的角色或电影比以前更具价值。Disney+带领更多年轻观众走进“星球大战”的世界，因为观众们能够在Disney+上观看此系列其他电影，了解周边玩具、主题公园和其他迪士尼产品。此外，Disney+还能向迪士尼旗下漫威（Marvel）、皮克斯（Pixar）电影和经典动画的粉丝们介绍“星战”系列。

But a brief pause in production, as Mr Iger announced, is probably wise. Disney and Lucasfilm can learn from the “Star Wars” films they have made so far, take time to plan entirely new stories and revitalise the franchise. Audiences will still be there. There is a popular adage that “no one hates ‘Star Wars’ more than ‘Star Wars’ fans”. With that kind of passion, the Force should remain strong with Disney for a long time to come.

不过，正如艾格先生所言，短暂的停产或许是明智之举。迪士尼和卢卡斯影业能够从他们制作的“星战”系列电影中吸取教训，花点时间规划全新的故事情节，重振此系列电影。观众们还是会继续支持的。毕竟，有句流行语这样调侃道：“没有比‘星战’系列的粉丝更讨厌‘星战’系列的人。”在这般殷切期盼下，迪士尼在未来很长一段时间内都会充满原力。

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