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《经济学人·商论》2023-09-01
加利福尼亚极少像佛罗里达、路易斯安那和得克萨斯等州那样经常性地遭受飓风和暴风雨的袭击。但在8月20日，热带风暴希拉里（Hilary）从南面猛烈进袭该州。创纪录的强降雨倾泻在洛杉矶市中心，淹没了加州干旱的山谷。紧接着，预报就显示，随着一个热穹顶从美国南部大部分地区上空一直盖到五大湖区，天气将从“水煮”变成“烧烤”模式。
CALIFORNIA RARELY sees the types of hurricanes and storms that routinely pummel Florida, Louisiana and Texas. But on August 20th tropical storm Hilary slammed into it from the south. Unprecedented amounts of rain pelted downtown Los Angeles and flooded the state’s arid valleys. Without missing a beat, forecasts then shifted from drenching to baking, as a heat dome fastened itself over much of the southern United States all the way up to the Great Lakes.
今年夏天，几乎每天都会传来世界某个地方出现某种极端天气的新闻。尽管天气总是在打破纪录，但人们开始担忧，当气候进一步变暖将会是什么情形？更令人警觉的是，美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration）宣布，厄尔尼诺已经到来。这种气候模式每两到七年出现一次，会导致全球气温升高。
Barely a day has gone by this summer without news of some extreme weather somewhere in the world. Although weather is always breaking records, that raises fears of what it will be like when the climate warms further. To add to the alarm, America’s National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate pattern that shows up every two to seven years and raises global temperatures.
因此，今年很有可能成为有记录以来最热的一年；而2024年还会更热，气温将比工业化前水平高出1.4℃。一些热带地区会遭受水灾，而另一些地区会暴发旱灾，带来粮食供应和疾病传播方面令人担忧的后果。和气候变化本身一样，现在就需要为厄尔尼诺即将带来的剧变做准备。
As a consequence, there is a good chance that this will be the hottest year on record; and that 2024 will be hotter still, with temperatures approaching 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. Some tropical regions will suffer damaging floods, and others will suffer droughts, with worrying consequences for food supplies and the spread of disease. As with climate change itself, the time to prepare for the coming upheaval of El Niño is now. ... ...
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