Asia |Left wanting
经济学人亚洲 | 心怀不满
Asia |Left wanting
Narendra Modi needs to win over low-income Indians
They are dissatisfied with their share of the country’s growth
Durga Prasad Yadav used to be a big fan of Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). “Back in 2014 they promised jobs and development. I thought they would improve things for ordinary people,” says the 36-year-old farmer from a village near Ayodhya in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh (up). In January Mr Modi inaugurated a new temple in the city on the site of a mosque that was demolished by a Hindu mob in 1992. The project has been accompanied by a big development drive. Yet Mr Yadav says local people like him have seen little improvement in their day-to-day lives. “All the development around here has meant loss for the people of Ayodhya,” says Mr Yadav. “Only outsiders have benefited.” He is not especially fond of the opposition. But in the national election that ended in early June, he voted for them anyway.杜尔加·普拉萨德·亚达夫（Durga Prasad Yadav）曾是印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪及其领导的印度人民党的坚定拥趸。“2014年的时候他们承诺要增加就业、促进发展。我还以为他们真的会改善老百姓的生活，”这位36岁的农民说道。他来自印度北部北方邦（Uttar Pradesh）阿约提亚市附近的一个小村庄。今年1月，莫迪为阿约提亚一座新建的印度教寺庙揭幕。寺庙的原址是一座清真寺，1992年时被印度教暴徒摧毁。追随莫迪脚步而来的还有一项大规模开发计划。然而，亚达夫表示，当地居民的日常生活并未得到改善。“这样那样的开发项目给阿约提亚人民带来的只有损失，”亚达夫说。“受益的都是外来者。”他并不怎么喜欢反对党，但在今年6月初结束的大选中，他还是投票给了他们。In Ayodhya and across up, many voters made the same choice, reducing the BJP’s share of seats in the state in its northern heartland from 62 out of 80 in 2019 to just 33, its biggest loss in any state. The party also lost 14 seats in Maharashtra, mostly in rural areas, and ten seats in Rajasthan, another poor northern state, as well as in rural constituencies across India. Besides (unfounded) concerns that a new BJP government could abolish affirmative-action policies benefiting poor or lower-caste groups, the party’s losses hint at a general sense of economic disaffection among the roughly 450m Indians, mostly from the country’s poor north, who get by on odd jobs, small-scale self-employment or farming, supplemented by government welfare.除了阿约提亚，在整个北方邦，许多选民都做出了相同的选择。这使得印人党在印度北方腹心北方邦的席位从2019年的62席锐减至33席（北方邦共有80个席位），吞下该党在单个邦的最大失利。此外，印人党在马哈拉施特拉邦（Maharashtra）失去了14个席位（主要在农村地区），在北方另一个贫困邦——拉贾斯坦邦（Rajasthan）失去了10个席位，并在全国上下的农村选区都遭受了或轻或重的打击。一方面，印人党的失利背后，是不少人担忧新一届印人党政府可能会取消针对贫困或低种姓群体的照顾性政策，虽然这样的担忧并无根据；另一方面，莫迪的大败反映出大约有4.5亿印度人（主要来自贫穷的北部地区）对经济状况感到不满。他们主要依靠零工、小规模个体经营或农业为生，并在一定程度上依赖于政府福利。Mr Modi was swept to power ten years ago on a platform combining Hindu nationalism with anti-elitism, promising better jobs and better lives for poor Indians such as Mr Yadav. But his government has struggled to tackle the lopsidedness of India’s economy that is the source of their dissatisfaction. Fixing those problems is the biggest challenge that his new coalition government will face.十年前，莫迪以横扫之势赢得大选。他的竞选纲领融合了印度教民族主义与反精英主义，并承诺为亚达夫这样的贫困群体提供更好的工作和更好的生活。然而，对于印度贫民颇为不满的经济发展不平衡问题，莫迪政府却没有多少办法。如何解决这些问题将是新的印人党联合政府面临的最大挑战。
With the exception of a big dip during the covid-19 pandemic, India’s gdp has grown steadily over the past decade. In the year to April it expanded by 8%, more than any other large economy. Yet many ordinary Indians have not seen enough economic improvements in their day-to-day lives, largely because the growth has not generated enough employment and higher wages at the lower end of the scale. The price of food, which forms a large share of poor people’s expenses, grew by over 10% between July 2022 and July 2023, and by 9% in the past year. Since 2018 food inflation has averaged over 6%, eating up a good chunk of wage increases (see chart).过去十年里，除曾在疫情期间大幅下跌外，印度GDP一直保持稳定增长。今年前四个月，印度经济增速达到8%，没有其他大国能与之匹敌。然而许多印度普通民众并未感受到日常生活有所改善，而这在很大程度上是因为经济增长并未给底层人民带来更多的就业岗位和更高的工资。食品在贫困人口的生活支出中占大头，而食品的价格在2022年7月至2023年7月间上涨了10%以上，在过去一年中上涨了9%。2018年以来，食品的平均通胀率超过6%，吞噬了大部分工资增长（见图）。Of the 570m, or just over half of working-age Indians in the labour force, 80% still make a living in the informal economy. This includes agriculture. The share has hardly changed over the past decade. Informal work comes without contracts, guaranteed hours or benefits.印度的适龄劳动人口只有一半出头（5.7亿）能有一份营生。然而，这5.7亿人中的80%也还依靠农业等非正规经济形式谋生。过去十年，这一比例几乎没有变化。非正式工作不签订合同，没有固定工作时间，也没有任何福利保障。Take the most recent annual survey of “unincorporated sector enterprises” (a big non-agricultural chunk of the informal economy) published on June 14th. Even though the estimated number of such firms grew by 8%, from 60m to over 65m between 2022 and 2023, each new enterprise generated just over two new jobs. The annual wage paid by firms remained stagnant, at 125,000 rupees ($1,500). Among informal rural workers, the poorest of the lot, it barely budged from 90,000 rupees. In agriculture, which employs over 40% of Indian workers, wages on farms have yet to return to their pre-pandemic level.以6月14日最新发布的“非法人部门企业”（非正规经济中除农业外的一大部门）年度调查为例。尽管2022年至2023年间此类企业的数量大致增长了8%，从约6000万家增至约6500多万家，但每家新企业创造的新岗位才两个出头。这些企业的年薪没有上涨，仍为12.5万卢比（约1500美元）。最贫穷的农村非正式工人的年薪几无变动，只有9万卢比。农业领域雇用了超过40%的印度工人，不过农场工资尚未恢复到疫情前的水平。The government has been supplementing incomes with cash payments, subsidies for cooking gas and free food rations, for which 800m Indians are eligible. It also runs a rural employment scheme which guarantees 100 days of work to rural workers. Some 83m workers used the scheme in the year to April.政府一直在通过现金补助、厨用燃气补贴和免费食品配给来补充民众收入，8亿印度人有资格领取享受福利。政府还实施了一项农村就业保障计划，保证农村劳动者每年可以工作100天。截至今年4月，该计划覆盖了约8300万劳动者。Those interventions have saved many from destitution. Yet life remains hard. In a survey conducted after the election by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (csds), a think-tank in Delhi, voters’ top three complaints were inflation, cited by 24% of respondents, growing unemployment, highlighted by 23%, and increasing poverty, mentioned by 11%. Even many who support the BJP are unhappy with their lot. “I appreciate that the government is giving us food,” says Rajni Dinesh Kumar, who runs a small shop in a Hindu neighbourhood of Rampur, a town in up, and approves of Mr Modi. “But what we really need around here are good jobs.”这些干预措施使许多人免于赤贫。然而，他们的生活依然艰难。德里智库发展中社会研究中心（CSDS）在大选后进行了一项调查，结果显示，选民抱怨最多的三个问题是通货膨胀（24%的受访者提及）、失业率上升（23%的受访者提及）和贫困加剧（11%的受访者提及）。甚至许多支持印人党的选民也对自己的现状感到不满。拉吉尼·迪内什·库马尔（Rajni Dinesh Kumar）是莫迪的支持者，他在北方邦的印度教聚居区兰普尔（Rampur）经营着一家小店。“我很感激政府给了我们食物，”他说，“但我们这里真正需要的是一份好工作。”Will the new government deliver? For now, it has extended the food-aid programme and released fresh funds to build houses for the needy. The first budget, expected in July, is likely to contain measures to encourage job creation and stimulate private investment, particularly in underserved areas. These include reducing compliance burdens and improving the accessibility of credit for small companies, as well as more infrastructure investment in rural areas. That could be a good start. But more will be needed if the government is not to squander poor Indians’ future—and its own re-election prospects.新一届政府能否兑现承诺？目前，他们已经延长了粮食援助计划，并拨款为贫困人口建造房屋。预计将于7月公布的第一份财政预算可能包含鼓励创造就业和刺激私人投资的措施，尤其是在服务欠缺的地区。这些措施包括减轻合规负担，增加小公司获得信贷的渠道，以及增加对农村地区的基础设施投资。这也许会是一个良好的开端。但是，如果政府不想断送印度穷人的未来——以及自己的连任前景，就还需要付出更多的努力。Ryan，学海无涯，译无止境
Trista，女，暴富不是梦想，是未来的现实
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
Vince，语言是前进路上的一道光
Lucian，医学翻译，灵魂在杰作中冒险
Ithil, or be more cruel, love, and so be kind.
感想|观点
本期感想
Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉
青年失业率这么高，国家还在快速发展中，这听起来有点不可思议。都是机器人在工作吗？魔幻的一幕正在印度这个神奇的国度中上演。理论上国家变得越富有，民众的财富多少还是要增加，虽然贫富差距大这在大国之中普遍存在。印度的财富分配不均是个很突出的问题。我一直觉得印度是一个非常有潜力国家，主要两个原因：1、劳动人口极其年轻，全球25岁以下人口大约1/5在印度，中位年龄是28岁，中国为39岁，美国为38岁，每年有超过1000万年轻人进入就业市场，如此年轻有活力的劳动力，印度完胜；2、如果种姓制度能彻底打破+人口基数庞大，统一的大市场充满想象空间。MADE IN INDIA的潜力听起来和MADE IN CHINA 一样动听。另外印度现在有一个很好的外部条件，国际形势对它有利，东西之间的摩擦，印度能否把握百年机遇就看新政府的能力了。新政府豪言2047年，印度将会成为一个发达国家。还有20年的努力。目前的增长速度喜人。现在人均年收入1500美金，跟我们当年的万元户时代差不多。20年的发展还是会有奇迹发生。国家财富的增加似乎是有一定的确定性，这里留下两个核心问题：就业机会和分配公平。这两个问题不能解决，印度离真正的经济繁荣还任重道远。01 2024年第二期翻译打卡营 
02 经济学人打卡营 03 早起打卡营
