越王问：＂若不能卖在最高点，买在最低点，如何outperform the market? ＂ 举两例

1）ETF OIH, 2022年以来在$300 左右swing N次，我跟着低买高抛N次，因为周期短，年化收益率很可观。我的一位同事选择常持，收益低微。

2）Exxon. 我在2020年低位吃进，到$90 因covered call 被买走。从此没再买Exxon 因为价格没有吸引力。但是资金也没有闲着，很快用于购买另一质高价廉的股票，收益也超过Exxon 后来的涨幅。

上面两种情况，pricing the market 的收益都高于长持。

当然如果遇上价值严重低估或真正的成长股（但价格不离谱），应该长期持有。我自己就有个别已持数年的股票，若股价没有显著高于其价值，打算持有十年不卖。

标普指数基金EPS年成长率仅3.5%，远远不够成长股标准（>10%），价位高了自然会抛掉。

 

 

今天你买了吗？

没有买标普，但买了OIH.

Yield才1.33%，YTD Daily Total Return -0.85% - 为什么？

你跟福虎一样，短炒？

前面说了，pricing the market, 从来不做day trading

I dont understand why people keep debating this

The answer is obvious: Of course "trading and timing the market" will outperform "buy and hold', with a big if, and that is you need skills and ability to time the market.

Everyone talks about Warren Buffet's sucess as an example for buy and hold. However, Jim Simons, the founding father of quant trading, has "far better" return than Buffet. You can look up Jim Simons online if not familiar.

The real issue is that, very very very few people can time the market reliably and have the skills like Simons to create long lasting and winning trading strategy. If you do, you should trade and be a multi-billionare. For most people, buy and hold allow them to enjoy the growth and properity of US economy. It is that simple 

这是对市场的定义有什么误解吗？一般默认market是 指total (US) stock market 而不是

sector

投资sector 和total stock market 策略当然不一样啊 

买进卖出来来回回这算炒股 哈哈，我理解越王昨天的看法好像是针对长持

Well said! 当然也不排除有些盘感特别好的网友，也许可以有比较高的概率抓住市场起伏的机会赚到更高的收益率。但

是能否连续几十年都能抓住就是另外一回事情了。

 

与炒股的差别是：只买价值被低估的股票或基金。