到底要不要timing the market?

the general concept is : don't time the market because no one can.

Warren Buffett, an iconic value investor, said : "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Is that timing the market? 
 

My personal experience is we need both: time in the market and timing the market. Timing the market has two legs: buy dip and sell high. The first leg is relative easy because there is limited room how low the market can go down. You can start to add more positions when it drops 20% and load more when it drops more. 
 

the hard part is the second leg: when to sell? Obviously you can sell when the market is back to the previous high. But often the market will go beyond it. If you keep holding the extra loaded positions, the risk is building up as well. Currently, I don't have a good idea when to sell. Any thoughts are appreciated.

我觉得定投指数最简单。可以在这个基础上buy dip。至于卖吗，不贪心赚了就好，不过这样税可不少。少赚一点都行，保证本金

最重要，哈哈，不过我是投资小白，my 2c

我就是以前科研带来的习惯：什么方法都想有个optimal result. 我现在感觉做投资这样想有害：（

我在QQQ上肯定也time the market。在高点进，后来Average down, 越买越多，现在就大赚了，但

我不担心QQQ会倒闭。就是买亚麻我当时都很担心

俺一直在timing the market

不错，不过TBill 我是不买的，宁可买黄金，哈哈

就是说大盘的话，可以timing the market

我同事买银子

他把所有的收入除了日常开销以外全部买成银子，实体银子。 

不可思议

trading, in the sense of opposite to investing

Is really about risk management.  There are tools and strategies to do that, based on expertise of the market utilizing hedging and risk award models.  None of which involves timing.

我有50%的钱在tbill 上

我觉得可以，当然牛帅，糊涂大师可以点评？

实体银子怎么卖出？

我LD买了一些GLD，收成还行

太保守了，错过了一个亿啊，哈哈

小钱可以，大钱time in the market

。

我也纳闷

咱们不是职业交易者，不懂股票交易，只有遵守以下原则

1: 只买大盘指数，

2: 跌了就买，越跌越买，

3:. 只买不卖

轻松积累财富，把时间和精力用在打球，旅游，和家人孩子一起玩

GLD随时可以买卖，方便

实体银子需要找个地方放啊

轻松战胜95%的active day trader.

若干年前就讲大机构split second 的programmed 的电子交易。散户就是陪练和韭菜

你是对的

那你总收益如何？ 绝大多数瞎忙了半天， 还不如定投

我现在基本也是这样，除了以前买的个股，哈哈

LD总觉得是乱世，要买一点黄金垫底，哈哈

他们割不着我QQQ的韭菜，哈哈，很多时候他们create fear,