73岁达利欧官宣“退休”！12岁炒股，26岁创办桥水基金，他就是管理15000亿元的“投资界的乔布斯”！（附视频&演讲稿）

2022-10-08 11:10

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全球知名对冲基金桥水基金(Bridgewater）当地时间10月4日对外宣布，公司控制权已由创始人达利欧（Dalio）转移到运营董事会，达利欧辞去联席首席投资官职务。联席首席执行官尼尔·巴迪（Nir Bar Dea）表示，“达利欧已不再拥有最终决定权。”他称，“这是一个重大变化。”

出生于1949年的达利欧，今年已73岁。1975年，时年26岁的达利欧在他的两居室公寓创立桥水基金。在他的带领下，桥水蜚声业内，是全球管理规模最大的投资机构之一。截至2022年3月，桥水管理规模已超1500亿美元，折合人民币已过万亿大关。当然，他也被人们称为“投资界的乔布斯”。

2010年，他便启动了交接计划。此后，达利欧通过卖出公司股份、卸任联席CEO等为退居二线作准备，原本计划用两年完成这一计划。市场人士评价，桥水今年亮眼的表现是达利欧退居二线的有利时机。

2021年12月，桥水基金宣布成立运营董事会，该运营董事会负责桥水基金日常运营，这一董事会由首席投资官、独立董事、职工代表董事等组成。2022年1月，董事会选择尼尔·巴迪和马克·贝托里尼（Mark Bertolini）担任联席首席执行官。今年2月，桥水完成最后一步，敲定权利过渡协议，并称会在接下来的时间完成一些法律步骤和监管要求。

“由创始人领导的公司转型为由员工拥有和控制的持久机构，我们共同完成了鲜少有公司或创始人完成的事情。”桥水基金表示。一般而言，基金公司面临控制权转换时，要么将对冲基金转变为家族企业，要么选择关停。达利欧选择建立一套新的治理体制，以确保无论谁领导企业，桥水都会保持独特的风格和高标准。

桥水控制权转移，并不意味着达利欧就完全退休。达利欧在桥水保留董事会席位，还将担任首席投资官导师。

美联储前主席保罗·沃尔克甚至评价说，达利欧的桥水基金对经济的统计分析甚至比美联储都靠谱。达利欧一直坚信，无论是在工作还是生活中，只要坚守原则，就能获得成功。今天推荐的这个视频把达利欧600多页的畅销书《原则》浓缩成了28分钟的迷你动画——《成功的原则》。

成功的原则
Principles For Success.

↓↓↓ 上下滑动，查看演讲稿 ↓↓↓

An ultra mini-series adventure in 30 minutes, and in eight episodes.

共计30分钟的八集超迷你人生历险短片

Episode one, The Call to Adventure.

第一集，《征程的召唤》

Before we begin, let me just establish the fact that I don't know much relative to what I need to know. Whatever success I've had in life has had more to do with my knowing how to deal with my not knowing than anything I know. That I should be telling other people what to do sounds kind of presumptuous to me, but I'm going to do it, because I believe that the principles that have made me successful could help others achieve their own goals.

在我们开始之前，先说明一个事实：相比我需要知道的东西，我的所知有限。我人生中取得的任何成功，不是因为我的知识有多少，而是我知道该如何应对我的无知。我来指导别人怎么成功，对我来说，未免有点冒失。但我还是要指导，因为我认为，让我成功的原则也能帮助别人实现他们的目标。

I'm now at a stage in my own life in which it is much more important to me to pass along what I've learned about how to be successful than to seek more success for myself. What you choose to do with

these principles is up to you. You have to be an independent thinker, because only you can develop your own principles based on your own values. This brings me to my first and most fundamental principle, which is that you need to think for yourself about what is true.

在我当前的人生阶段，对我来说，把我所学到的成功之道传授出去，比为寻求自我的更多成功要重要得多。而在知晓这些原则后你如何行动，取决于你自己。你务必独立思考，因为只有你才能依据你自己的价值观逐渐形成你自己的原则。因此我提出第一条也是最基本的原则，那就是：你需要独立思考现实是什么。

So let's get started. Early on, I discovered I needed principles. Principles are smart ways for handling things that happen over and over again in similar situations. There are principles for everything, from skiing to parenting to cooking, and so on. I'm going to share some of my most important, overarching, life principles that influence how we approach everything that we do. I didn't start out with principles. I acquired them over a lifetime of experiences.

那么开始吧。我很早就发现我需要原则。原则就是处理在类似情境下反复发生的事情的智慧。基本所有事情都有原则可循，从滑雪到育儿到烹饪，等等。我将与大家分享我最重要的全局性的人生原则，这些原则能够影响我们做各种事情的方式。我不是初出茅庐就懂这些原则，我是在历经沧桑后收获了它们。

Mostly, from making mistakes and reflecting on them. My life principles are simple, but they're not complete. I still struggle to make the best decisions, and I still make mistakes and learn new principles all the time. This is the reality. At the beginning, I needed to escape the conventions that surrounded me, which meant that I needed to think for myself. Unless you want to have a life that is directed by others, you need to decide for yourself what to do, and you need to have the courage to do it.

多数原则是从犯错和反思中获得。我的人生原则都很简明，并不尽善尽美。我仍然在努力做最好的决定，我仍然在不断地犯错，也在不断地学习新的原则，这是事实。一开始，我需要摆脱围绕在身边的一些约定俗成的惯例，这意味着我需要独立思考，除非你想让你的人生被他人左右，否则你需要自己决定你该做什么，而且你需要有行动的勇气。

But I didn't know that at first. I only learned that from going on my adventure. Looking back on my own journey, I now see that time is like a river that carries us forward into encounters with reality that require us to make decisions. We can't stop our movement down this river, and we can't avoid the encounters. We can only approach them in the best possible way. In your lifetime, you will face millions of decisions. The quality of your decisions will determine the quality of your life. Over the course of my lifetime, the most valuable things I've learned were the results of mistakes I reflected on to help form principles so I wouldn't make the same mistakes again.

但我起初并没有领悟出这些道理，我是在我自己的探险征程中学到的，回顾我的人生旅程，我现在能看到时间就像一条河流，带着我们前进，遭遇现实的考验，推着我们做出决定，我们无法停下前进的步伐，我们也无法逃避现实，我们只能尽可能寻找最佳路线。在一生中，你将面临无数决定，你做出的决定的好坏就将影响你人生的好坏。纵观我的一生，我学到的最有价值的东西是反思错误，以帮助我形成我的原则，这样我就不会再犯同样的错误。

These principles took me from being a very ordinary middle class kid from Long Island to becoming very successful as judged by conventional measures. They also gave me the meaningful work and meaningful relationships that I value even more than these conventional successes. People often ask me how I did it. I can assure you it wasn't because of my uniqueness as a person. It was the result of a unique approach to life I believe almost anybody can adopt. It starts with embracing reality and dealing with it.

这些原则让我这个来自长岛非常普通的中产阶级家庭的小孩，变成了一个在常规标准看来，非常成功的人。这些原则也使我获得了重要的工作和重要的人际关系，这些对我来说比传统意义上的成功更重要。人们经常问我，我是怎么做到的，我向你保证这并不是因为我有多么特殊，这其实是一种独特的生活原则的成果，我相信几乎任何人都可以采用这个原则，这起始于拥抱现实和应对现实原则。

The path you take in life is your most important decision. In my case, I wanted my life to be great, and I feared boredom and mediocrity more than I feared failure. Since I didn't start out with money, and I didn't need much more than a bed to sleep in and food to eat, I could skew my decisions to pursue my adventures. So ever since I was a kid, I ran after the things I wanted, crashed, got up and ran again, and crashed again, and each time I crashed, I learned something, got better, and crashed less. By doing that over and over again, I learned to love this process, even the crashing part of it. Through it, I encountered reality, and I learned how to deal with it, which inspired another one of my most fundamental principles which is that truth is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes.

走什么样的人生道路是你最重要的决定。就我而言，我希望我的人生是充实的，我担心无聊和平庸多过担心失败。由于我一开始身无分文，不过好在除了有床可睡，有饭可吃之外，我也无更多需求，所以我可以改变我的决定去追求我的探险之旅。从我还是个小孩子的时候，我就会追着我想要的东西跑，摔倒了，爬起来再跑，再摔倒，每次摔倒，我都能学到一些东西，变得更好，摔倒的次数也更少，通过一次又一次地重复，我学会了热爱这个探险之旅，甚至是其中的跌倒经历。在这个历程中，我认识到了现实，也学会了如何应对现实，并由此激发了我又一条最基础的原则，即遵循真理是产生好结果必不可少的基础。

By truth, I don't mean anything more than the way the world works. I believe that we were given the laws of reality by nature. Humans didn't create them, but we can use them to foster our own evolution and achieve our goals. Realizing that made me a hyper-realist, by which I mean I became someone who has discovered the great rewards of deeply understanding, accepting, and working with reality as it is, and not as I wish it would be. When I say I'm a hyper-realist, people sometimes think I'm saying that dreams can't come true. That's absolutely not true. Without pursuing dreams, life is mundane. What I mean is that, to me, hyper-realism is the best way to choose one's dreams and then achieve them.

我所说的真理，只是指这个世界的运行规律，我相信现实的规律是固有的存在，人类并没有创造规律，但我们可以利用规律来促进我们自身的成长并实现我们的目标，意识到这一点使我成为一个超现实主义者。我变得能够深入地理解、接受以及面对现实的本貌，而不是按照自己的希望加以曲解，因而我从中获益匪浅。每当我说我是一个超现实主义者时，人们有时会觉得我是个不相信梦想的人，事实并非如此，如果不追求梦想，人生就会变得平庸。我的意思是，对我来说，超现实主义是选择自己的梦想，然后以最佳方式实现梦想。

Having big dreams, plus embracing reality, plus having lots of determination will bring you a successful life. I believe this formula is true for everyone. But what does a successful life look like? We each have to decide for ourselves what success is. I don't care whether you want to be a master of the universe or to live under a palm tree, or anything else. I really don't.

拥有远大的梦想，再加上拥抱现实，加上有很大的决心，就会给你带来成功的人生。我相信这个公式对每个人都适用，但成功的人生是什么样子的呢？我们每个人都必须自行决定什么是成功，我不在乎你是想成为呼风唤雨的宇宙主宰，还是想闲适度日、躺平摆烂，或者其他什么，我无所谓。

Each of us chooses goals based on our values and decides on the best path to achieve them. But we all need approaches to making decisions that work well, especially when facing problems, mistakes, and weaknesses that stand in our way. To succeed, we must embrace all our realities, especially the harsh realities that we wish weren't true.

我们每个人都要基于自己的价值观选择目标，并决定实现这些目标的最佳途径。但我们都需要一些方法来帮助我们做出合适的决策，尤其是在面对阻碍我们的问题、错误和弱点时。为了成功，我们必须拥抱所有的现实，特别是那些我们不愿面对的的残酷现实。

At first, looking at these harsh realities caused me a lot of pain. But I learned that this pain was just psychological, and that my seeing things differently made all the difference. I came to view problems like puzzles that would reward me if I could solve them. They would help me deal with the problem at hand, and they would give me principles for dealing with similar problems in the future. I learned to treat pain as a cue that a great learning opportunity is at hand, which led me to realize that pain plus reflection equals progress. Meditation has been invaluable in helping me see things that way.

起初，面对这些残酷的现实给我带来了非常大的痛苦。但我了解到，这种痛苦只是心理上的，我对事物的看法不同会使一切都变得不一样。我开始把困难看作是谜题，如果我能够解决它们，就会得到奖励，这样的做法帮助我处理手头的问题，也教会我未来处理类似问题的原则，我学会了把痛苦当作线索，当作眼前一个很棒的学习机会，这进而使我认识到，痛苦加反思等于进步，在形成这种看待问题的方式的过程中，冥想起到了很大的作用。

I found that when I calmed myself down and embraced my realities, and dealt with them, the rewards brought me pleasure, and the pain faded. Each of us has the unique capability to think logically, to reflect on ourselves, and our circumstances, and to direct our own personal evolution. Doing this well is just a matter of following a simple five-step process. (warm music)

我发现，当我让自己平静下来，拥抱现实，应对现实时，我就会感受到愉快，痛苦也随之消失。我们每个人都有独立的逻辑思考，反思自己和自己的处境，并指导自己进化之路，要做好这一点只需遵循简单的五步。

We've discussed how important it is to reflect carefully after experiencing pain. When I did this, I was usually able to discover principles that would prevent me from repeating the same mistakes in the future. And I could see that being successful simply consisted of five steps.

我们已经讨论过在经历痛苦后，认真反思是多么重要。当我反思时，我通常能够发现一些原则，能够防止我在未来重复同样的错误，我发现想要成功只需要五个步骤。

Step one is to know your goals and run after them. What is best for you depends on your nature, so you need to really understand yourself and know what you want to achieve in life.

第一步是知晓你的目标，然后努力追求。什么是最适合你的取决于你的天性，所以你需要真正知晓自己，知道你想在生活中实现什么。

Step two is to encounter the problems that stand in the way of getting to your goals. These problems are typically painful. If handled badly, some of them can lead to your ruin. But to evolve, you need to identify those problems and not tolerate them.

第二步是，直面阻碍你实现目标的问题。这些问题通常会很棘手，如果处理得不当，其中一些会毁掉你，但是要想进步，你需要认清这些问题，绝不轻易放过。

Step three is to diagnose these problems to get at their root causes. Don't jump too quickly to solutions. Take a step back and reflect in order to really distinguish the symptoms from the disease.

第三步是，诊断这些问题，找到问题的根源。不要急于寻求解决方案，先退一步思考，以真正区分症状和疾病本身。

Step four is to design a plan to eliminate the problems. This is where you will determine what you need to do to get around them.

第四步是，制定解决问题的方案。这时你需要确定你要怎么处理它们。

And step five is to execute those designs, pushing yourself to do what's needed to progress toward your goal.

而第五步是执行你的方案，推动自己做需要做的事情，向着目标迈进。

A successful life essentially consists of doing these five steps over and over again. This is your personal evolution, and you see this process everywhere. It's just a law of nature. Think of any product, any organization, or any person you know, and you will see that this is true for them. Evolution is simply a process of either adapting, or dying.

成功的人生，本质上就是反复地进行这五个步骤，这是你个人的进化，这一过程几乎无处不在，这是自然规律，想一想任何产品、任何机构、或任何你认识的人，你会发现他们都遵循着这样的原则，进化其实就是一个要么适应、要么死亡的过程。

Conceptually, it looks just like the five-step process I've described. As you push through this often painful process, you'll naturally ascend to higher and higher levels of success. I found that when I did it better, my struggling never became easier, because the more capable I became, the greater the challenges I would take on. Because different people are strong and weak at different things, most people can't do all five steps well.

概念上来说，进化就像我刚刚讲的这五个步骤。当你不断经历这一通常来说很痛苦的过程，你会自然地取得越来越高的成功。我发现，即使我做得越来越好，我的经历也并没有因此变得容易。因为我的能力越强，我将接受的挑战就越困难。因为不同的人擅长和不擅长的事情不同，所以大多数人无法做好所有五个步骤。

Not facing this reality means you could stretch further than you should. And as the heights get greater, your falls could also be greater. (wind howling) Sometimes terrible things happen to all of us in life. They can ruin us, or they can profoundly improve us depending on how we handle them. Something like this happened to me in 1982. We progress forward until we encounter setbacks. Whether or not we get out of them and continue forward or spiral downward depends on whether or not we're willing to face the failure objectively, and make the right decisions to turn the loop upward again.

如果不面对这个现实，意味着你可能要付出更多的努力，而随着高度的增加，你每次跌倒也会越来越痛。生活中，我们都可能会遇上可怕的事情，它们可以毁掉我们，也可以使我们进步，这取决于我们如何应对。我在1982年就遇到过这样的事情，我们在前进时会遇到挫折，我们是能够摆脱它们，继续前进，还是一败涂地，取决于我们是否愿意客观地面对失败，做出正确的决定，实现逆袭。

Something terrible happened to me in 1982, when I bet everything on a depression that never came. (crashing) (birds chirping) The period between 1979 and 1982 was one of extreme turbulence, for the global economy, the markets, and for me. And I believed that the US economy, with the world economy tied to it, was headed toward a catastrophe. This view was extremely controversial. I wanted the great upside, and very publicly took a big risk and was wrong, dead wrong. After a delay, the stock market began a big bull market that lasted 18 years, and the US economy enjoyed the greatest growth period in its history.

1982年在我身上发生了一件可怕的事情，当时我把一切都押在一场最终没有发生的大萧条上，1979年至1982年期间是一段极端动荡的时期，对全球经济、市场和我来说都是如此。我认为美国经济以及与之相关的世界经济，正在走向一场灾难。这一观点引起了极大的争议，我想要从中捞到好处，并冒了很大的风险，公开表达我的看法。但我错了，大错特错，在经历一段缓慢发展后，股市开始了持续18年的大牛市，美国经济也迎来了，历史上最大的增长期。

This experience was like a blow to my head with a baseball bat. I had to cut my losses so that my company, Bridgewater, was left with one employee, me. (door slams) (paper shuffles) I was so broke, I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to pay my bills. But even worse was having to let go the people I cared so much about. I wondered whether I should give up my dream of working for myself and play it safe by working for someone else in a job that would require me to put on a tie and commute everyday. Though I knew that for me, taking less risk would mean having a less great life. Being so wrong, and especially being so publicly wrong, was painfully humbling. I am still shocked and embarrassed by how arrogant I was in being totally confident in a totally incorrect view.

这一经历之于我仿若当头棒喝，我不得不及时止损，于是我的公司桥水基金就只剩下我一个员工了。我当时彻底破产、一贫如洗，不得不向我父亲借了4000美元来支付账单。但更糟糕的是我不得不解雇那些我曾非常在乎的人，我开始思考我是不是应该放弃为自己工作的梦想，转而打安全牌，给别人打工，做一份需要我打上领带、朝九晚五的工作。尽管我知道，对我来说，少冒风险，就意味着人生会失去很多风景。但在当时，公开地犯下如此错误，令我痛苦又惭愧。我至今仍为自己对一个完全错误的观点盲目自信而深感震惊且尴尬。

Though I had been right much more than I had been wrong, I let one bad bet erase all my good ones. (dramatic orchestral music) I thought very hard about the relationship between risk and reward, and how to manage them. But I couldn't see a path forward that would give me the rewards I wanted without unacceptable risk. This kind of experience happens to everyone. It will happen to you. You will lose something, or someone you think you can't live without. Or you will suffer a terrible illness or injury, or your career will fall apart before your eyes. You might think that your life is ruined, and there's no way to go forward. But it will pass. I assure you that there is always a best path forward, and you probably just don't see it yet.

虽然我正确的时候比错的时候多，但这一次错误就足以抹去了一切。我非常认真地思考了风险和回报之间的关系，以及如何管理它们。但我看不到有哪一条路能给我带来我想要的回报，而又没有难以接受的风险。这种经历发生在每个人身上，它也会发生在你身上，你会失去一些东西，或者失去你认为你无法离开的人，或者你会遭受可怕的疾病或伤害，或者你会眼看着你的职业生涯分崩离析，你可能认为你的人生被毁了，没有办法继续前进，但这些都会过去的。我向你保证，总有一条最佳的前进道路，只是你可能还没有发现。

You just have to reflect well to find it. You have to embrace your reality. Sometimes things happen that are hard to understand. Life often feels so difficult and complicated, it's too much to take in all at once. My deep pain led me to reflect deeply on my circumstances. It also led me to reflect on nature, because it provides a guide for what's true. So I thought a lot about how things work, which helped to put me, and my own circumstances, in perspective. I saw that at the big bang, all the laws and forces of the universe were created and propelled forward, interacting with each other as a perpetual motion machine, in which all the bits and pieces coalesce into machines that work for a while, fall apart, and then coalesce into new machines. This goes on into eternity. I saw that everything is a machine.

你只要好好反思，拥抱现实，就能找到它，有时会有一些难以理解的事情发生，生活常常会令人感到困难、复杂，很难一下子接受，我深切的痛苦使我对自己的处境进行了深刻的反思，也引导我反思了自然规律，因为自然规律能够指引我们分辨什么是真理。因此，我思考了很多关于事物如何运作的事情，这有助于我更好地看清我自己和我的处境，我了解到在大爆炸时期，宇宙的所有规律和力量都被创造出来，推动发展，像永动机一样相互作用，宇宙中的一切共同凝聚成这个运转系统，运行一阵子，崩塌，然后再聚成新的运转系统，这会一直持续到永远，我理解了万事万物不过一个系统。

The structure and evolution of galaxies, the formation of our own solar system, the make-up of earth's geography and ecosystems, our economies and markets, and each of us. We individually are machines, made up of different machines. Our circulatory system, our nervous system, that produce our thoughts, our dreams, our emotions, and all the other aspects of our distinct characters. All of these different machines evolve together through time to produce the realities we encounter every day. And I realized that I was just one tiny bit in one nanosecond, deciding what I should do. While that perspective might sound very philosophical, I found that it was very practical, because it showed me how I could deal with my own realities in a better way.

银河系的结构和演变，我们所在的太阳系的形成，地球的地理和生态系统的构成，我们的经济和市场，以及我们每个人，我们每个个体都是系统，每个个体又由不同的系统构成。我们的循环系统，我们的神经系统产生我们的思想，我们的梦想，我们的情绪以及我们独特性格的各个方面，所有这些不同的系统随时间逐渐演变共同产生了我们每天的现实。我意识到我只是在一纳秒内的一点决定了我该做什么，虽然这种观点可能听起来很哲学，但我发现它非常实用，因为它告诉我如何更好地应对我的现实。

For example, I observed that most everything happens over and over again in slightly different ways. Some in obvious short-term cycles that are easy to recognize, so we know how to deal with them, like the 24-hour day. Some so infrequently that they haven't occurred in our lifetimes, and we're shocked when they do, like the once in a 100 year storm. And some we know exist, but are encountering for the first time, like the birth of our first child. Most people mistakenly treat these situations as being unique, and deal with them without having proper perspective or principles to help them get through them. I found that if instead of dealing with these events as one-offs, I could see each as just another one of those, and approach them in the same way a biologist might approach an animal.

例如，我观察到，大多数事情都在不断地重复发生，只是方式稍有不同，有些重复的周期短，很容易识别，所以我们知道该如何处理，比如一天24小时。但有些事是不常发生的，我们一辈子都没怎么遇上过，于是不常发生的事情发生时我们就会不知所措，比如百年一遇的风暴，还有一些我们知道存在，但却是第一次遇到的事情，比如我们第一个孩子的出生。大多数人错把这些情况当做单一事件，所以在处理时，也没有正确的看法和原则来帮助他们解决。我发现相比把这些事情当作是独立的单一事件来处理，更好的做法是看作类似情境的重现，并像生物学家对待动物一样来处理这些事情。

First, identifying its species, then drawing on principles for dealing with it appropriately. Because I could see these events transpire in pretty much the same ways over and over, I could more clearly see the cause-effect relationships that govern their behaviors, which allowed me to develop better principles that I could express in both words and algorithms. I learned that while most everyone expects the future to be a slightly modified version of the present, it is typically very different. That's because people are biased by recent history, and overlook events that haven't happened in a long time, perhaps not even in their lifetime. But they will happen again. With that perspective, I realized that what I missed when I mistakenly called for a great depression was hidden in the patterns of history, and I could use my newfound knowledge of these patterns to make better decisions in the future.

首先，确定其种类，然后找到相应的原则，以合适的方法处理。因为我可以看到这些事件以几乎相同的方式反复发生，我可以更清楚地看到其中的因果关系，这使我能够制定更好的原则，并以文字和算法的方式呈现出来。我了解到，虽然大多数人都期望未来是在现在的基础上稍加修改，但未来通常会有很大不同，这是因为人们受短期历史的影响产生了偏见，而忽略了很久没有发生，也许是在他们有限的人生中都不曾经历的事情，但没有发生的事情还是会再次发生的。有了这种观点，我意识到在我错误地预测大萧条时所忽略的东西，就隐藏在历史的规律中。我可以利用我对这些规律的新发现，在未来做出更好的决定。

And when I thought about my challenge, balancing risk and reward, I realized that risk and reward naturally go together. I could see that to get the most out of life, one has to take more risk, and that knowing how to appropriately balance risk and reward is essential to having the best life possible. Imagine you were faced with the choice of having a safe, boring life if you stay where you are, or having a fabulous one if you take the risk of successfully crossing a dangerous jungle. That is essentially the choice we all face. For me, the choice was clear, but that doesn't mean the path forward was without challenges. I still needed to face two big barriers that we all must face. (peaceful music) I can't tell you which path in life is best for you, because I don't know how important it is for you to achieve big goals relative to how important it is for you to avoid the pains required to get them.

而当我想到我的挑战，即平衡风险和回报时，我意识到风险和回报天生就是共存的。我知道了，要想从生活中获得最大利益，就必须承担更多的风险，而知道如何适当地平衡风险和回报，是拥有最好生活的关键。想象一下，你面临着这样的选择：如果你呆在原地，就会拥有安全但无聊的生活，或者如果你探险成功穿越危险的丛林，你的生活会精彩得多。这基本上是我们所有人都面临的选择，对我来说，选择很清晰，但这并不意味着前进的道路上就没有障碍，我仍然需要面对两个我们都必须面对的严峻障碍。我无法告诉你哪条人生道路最适合你，因为我不知道相对于避免实现目标所要承受的痛苦，实现目标这件事对你来说有多么重要。

This is the courage I spoke of earlier, and we each have to feel these things out for ourselves. After my big mistake in calling for a depression, I had come to one of life's forks in the road, as we all do. If I made the choice to take a normal job and play it safe, I would have ended up with a very different life than the one I had. (door slams) (paper shuffles) But as long as I could pay the rent, put food on the table, and educate my kids, the only choice for me was to risk crossing the jungle in pursuit of the best life possible. My big mistake in betting on a depression gave me a healthy fear of being wrong.

这就是我前面谈到的勇气，我们每个人都必须自己权衡和决策，在我犯下错估大萧条的错误之后，像所有人一样，我来到了人生的一个岔路口。如果我选择做一份普通的工作，安稳度日，我可能会拥有与现在截然不同的生活。但是，只要我能够支付房租，能够饱腹，能够送我的孩子上学，我就无法舍弃探险穿越丛林，追求尽可能精彩的生活。我在押注大萧条上犯的大错，让我对错误有了一定的恐惧。

In other words, it gave me deep humility, which was exactly what I needed. At the same time, it didn't stop me from aggressively going after the things I wanted. To succeed, I needed to see more than I alone could see. (strikes match) (flame hisses) But standing in my way of doing that were the two biggest barriers everyone faces. Our ego and blind spot barriers. These barriers exist because of how our brains work.

换言之，错误使我变得谦卑，这正是我所需要的。同时，这并没有阻止我积极地去追求我想要的东西，要想成功，我不能局限于一己之见，但阻碍着我的也是每个人都面对的两大障碍：自我和盲点。我们大脑的运作原理决定了这两个障碍的存在。

First, let's explore the ego barrier. When I refer to your ego barrier, I'm talking about the parts of your brain that prevent you from acknowledging your weaknesses objectively, so that you can figure out how to deal with them. Your deepest seated needs and fears reside in areas of your brain that control your emotions and are not accessible to your higher-level conscious awareness. And because our need to be right can be more important than our need to find out what's true, we like to believe our own opinions without properly stress-testing them.

首先，让我们来探讨一下自我的障碍，我所说的自我障碍，是指你大脑中的某些区域阻碍你客观地承认自己弱点，也就使你无法想出办法应对它们，你最深层的需求和恐惧存在于你大脑控制情绪的区域当中，而你更高层次的意识是无法进入这区域的。由于我们对自我正确的需求可能比找出现实是什么的需求更甚。所以我们倾向于相信自己的看法，而不对其进行适当的压力测试。

We especially don't like to look at our mistakes and weaknesses. We are instinctively prone to react to explorations of them as though they're attacks. We get angry, even though it would be more logical for us to be open to feedback from others. This leads to our making inferior decisions, learning less, and falling short of our potentials. The second is the blind spot barrier. Everyone has blind spots. The blind spot barrier is when a person believes he or she can see everything. But it's a simple fact that no one alone can see a complete picture of reality.

我们尤其不愿意面对我们的错误和弱点，我们本能地倾向于将对它们的探索看作是对我们的攻击。我们会生气，尽管更理性的做法应该是对他人的反馈持开放态度。太自我会导致我们做出不恰当的决定，更少地学习并且无法发挥出全部潜力。第二个是盲点障碍，每个人都有盲点，盲点障碍是指一个人自以为能察知一切，但事实是，没有一个人能够独立地看清现实的全貌。

Naturally, people can't appreciate what they can't see, just as we all have different ranges for singing, hearing pitch, and seeing colors, we have different ranges for seeing and understanding things. For example, while some people are better at seeing the big picture, others excel at seeing details. Some are linear thinkers, and others are more lateral. While some are creative but not reliable, others are reliable but not creative, and so on. Because of how are brains are wired differently, everyone perceives the world around them differently.

人们自然不会理解他们看不到的东西，就像每个人唱歌、听音、和识别颜色的范围都不同。我们每个人能够看到和理解事物的范围也都不同，例如有些人更善于纵观全局，而有些人则擅长捕捉细节，有的人是线性思维，有的人则更倾向于横向思维，有些人有创意但不可靠，有些人可靠但缺乏创意，如此等等。由于大脑的结构不同，每个人对周围世界的感知也不同。

By doing what comes naturally to us, we fail to account for our weaknesses and we crash. Either we keep doing that, or we change. Aristotle defined tragedy as a terrible outcome arising from a person's fatal flaw. A flaw, that had it been fixed, would have instead led to a wonderful outcome. In my opinion, these two barriers are the main impediments that get in the way of good decision-making. (noble orchestral music) Taking risks and occasionally being ruined wasn't acceptable and neither was not taking risks and not having exceptional results.

顺着自己天性上的缺陷做事，我们就忽略了自己的不足，以致失足摔倒。我们要么继续盲从，要么做出改变。亚里士多德将悲剧定义为一个人的致命缺陷所导致的可怕结果，一个如果被修复便能促成美好结局的缺陷。在我看来，这两个障碍是阻碍绝佳决策的主要因素。承担风险，偶尔被重创，令人难以接受，而不承担风险，没有任何成果也令人难以接受。

I needed an approach that would give me the exceptional upside without also giving me the exceptional downside. When I discovered it, it turned out to be my holy grail. To get it, I needed to replace the joy of being proven right with the joy of learning what's true. This need prompted me to seek out the most thoughtful people I could find who disagreed with me. I didn't care about their conclusions, I just wanted to see things through their eyes, and to have them see things through my eyes, so that together we could hash things out to discover what's true.

我需要一种方法，既能给我带来我希望的好处，又不会令我摔得太过惨重。在我发现这个原则时，它便成为了我的“神圣信仰”。为了领悟出这个原则，我需要把被证明正确的喜悦换成发现真理的喜悦。这种需要促使我去寻找与我意见相左的人中思考最缜密的人，我并不关心他们的结论，我只想通过他们的视角看问题，也让他们通过我的视角看问题，这样我们就能一起把事情弄清楚，发现究竟什么是真相。

In other words, what I wanted most from them was thoughtful disagreement. Going from seeing things through just my eyes, to seeing things through the eyes of these thoughtful people was like going from seeing things in black and white to seeing them in color. (birds chirping) The world lit up. (growling) (wings flapping) That's when I realized that the best way to go through the jungle of life is with insightful people who see things differently from me.

换言之，我最想从他们那里得到的是合理的分歧，从只通过我自己的眼睛看东西，到也通过这些智慧的人的眼睛看东西，就像从看黑白的东西转变为看彩色的东西，整个世界都被点亮了，这时我意识到，穿越人生丛林的最佳方式，是与那些与我看法不同的有识之士同行。

Think about the five-step process I described earlier. As I said, because we are wired so differently, not everyone can do all the five steps well. But you don't have to do them all alone. You can get help from others who are good at what you're not, who are wired to perceive things you can't. All you need to do is let go of your attachment to having the right answers yourself, and use your fear of being wrong to become open-minded to these other views. In this way, you could point out the risks and opportunities that you would individually miss.

想想我前面所说的五个步骤。正如我所说，由于我们的思维方式不同，不是每个人都能很好地完成所有的五个步骤。但你不一定要独自完成这些工作，你可以从其他人那里得到帮助，那些擅长你不擅长的东西，有能力感知你不能感知的东西的人，你需要做的就是放下你对自己拥有正确答案的执着，利用你对错误的恐惧，使自己对其他不同的观点持开放态度，这样你就能够发现你个人会忽略的风险和机会。

I found that taking this radically open-minded approach and believability-weighting people's thinking significantly increased my probabilities of making the best decisions possible. This enabled me to ascend to greater heights and greater challenges. In the past, I would have always wanted to do what I, myself, thought was best. But now I sought out the strongest independent thinkers I could find. I still do. There is nothing better to be on a shared mission with extraordinary people who can be radically truthful and radically transparent with each other.

我发现，采取这种极致开放的思维方式，对他人的想法加以信任，大大增加了我做出最佳决定的概率，这将我提升至更高的高度，迎接更大的挑战。在过去，我总是想做我自己认为最好的事情，但现在我会寻找我能找到的最强大的独立思考者，我现在依然这么做，没有什么比与出色的人共同执行任务更好的了，大家对彼此极度真实，极度透明。

This approach led me to create a company with the unique idea meritocracy, operating in a unique way, that produced unique successes. In an idea meritocracy, you get the best of everybody. Everyone thinks independently, then we work through our disagreements to get at what's best. However, not every opinion is equally valuable. And we had to learn to distinguish between good ideas and bad ones to get the best decisions. In other words, we needed to believability-weight people's thinking. But that's another story I will explain in my work principles. Right now, there are many wonderful opportunities and dangerous risks surrounding you that you don't see.

这种方法使我创建了一家理念独特的创意择优公司，以独特的方式运作，获得了独特的成功。采用创意择优的方式，你可以集合每个人的优势，每个人都独立思考，然后通过商讨我们的分歧来获得最好的结果。然而，并不是每一种意见都同样有价值，我们必须学会区分好的创意和坏的创意，以得出最好的决定。换句话说，我们需要衡量人们创意的可信度，但这又是另一个故事了，我会在我的工作原则中讲到。现在你的身边有很多你尚未察觉的机会和风险。

If you saw them free of the distortions produced by your ego or your blind spots, you would be able to deal with them more effectively. If you could acquire this ability, and with practice you can, you will radically improve your life. So far I described how I learned to confront my own realities, my problems, my mistakes, and weaknesses. And how I surrounded myself with others who could do things better than I could. This was the most effective way I discovered for making great decisions. This is not the normal way of being, but through this approach, I became very successful. And being successful enabled me to meet extraordinarily successful people and see how they think.

如果你能够看清现实，不被你的自我或盲点所扭曲，你就将能够更有效地应对现实。如果你能获得这样的能力，再通过力所能及的练习，你将从根本上改善你的生活。至此，我描述了我如何学会面对自己的现实、我的问题、错误和弱点，以及我如何结识那些能在某些事情上比我做得更好的人，这是我发现做出更好决定的最有效方法，这并不是一种常见的做法。但通过这种方式，我变得非常成功，而成功使我能够认识更加成功的人，了解他们的想法。

I've discovered that their journeys were similar to mine. You might not know it, but they all struggled, and they all have weaknesses that they all get around by working with people who see risks and opportunities that they would miss. Over time, I leaned that by nature, most people's greatest strengths are also connected to their most significant weaknesses. And striving hard for big things is bound to lead you to painful falls. It's just part of the process. Such setbacks will test you. They sort people. Some think hard about what caused their setbacks, learn lessons, and continue progressing toward their goals, while others decide that this game is not for them, and get off the field.

我发现他们的旅程与我相似，你可能不知道，但他们都经历过挣扎，他们也都有弱点，而与那些能够看到自己无法发现的风险和机会的人合作，就能解决这些问题。慢慢地我发现，大多数人最大的优势天然地也关乎着他们最大的弱点，而为了远大的理想努力必然有痛苦跌倒的时候，这是必经之路。这样的挫折会考验你，会历练出不同的人群。有些人认真思考是什么导致了他们的挫折，吸取教训，并继续朝着他们的目标前进，而有些人则会决定这条路不适合自己，悻悻离场。

I've come to realize that success is not a matter of attaining one's goals. I've found that when I reached each new higher level of success, I rarely remained satisfied. The things we are striving for are just the bait. Struggling to get them forces us to evolve, and it is this struggle toward personal evolution with others that is the reward. I no longer wanted to get across the jungle, but instead wanted to find greater and greater challenges to go after, surrounded by great people working together on a shared journey.

我已经认识到成功并不是达到目标就可以了，我发现，每当我达到一个新的成功的高度时，我很少会感到满足，我们所努力争取的东西只是诱饵，努力得到它们会迫使我们不断成长，而正是这种努力，促使我们不断地成长，才是我们的所得到的回报。我已经不再想要穿越丛林，而是想要与身边优秀的人一起合作，共同去寻求更有难度、更大的挑战。

Eventually the success of the mission and the well-being of the people alongside me became more important than my own success. I also started to see beyond myself, and wanted others to be successful when I'm no longer here. I realized that if I fail to do that, I will be a failure. I struggle with this now. We all struggle with different things at different times, until we either choose to give up, or until we die and become part of the larger evolutionary story. This is how all machines work, and are recycled through time. When a machine breaks down, its parts go back into the system to become parts of new machines that also evolve through time.

最终，任务的成功和与我并肩作战的人的福祉，变得比我自己的成功更重要。我也开始更多地为他人着想，希望在我缺席的时候，其他人也能获得成功。我意识到，如果我无法实现这一点，我将是一个失败者。如今我正在为这一目标奋斗着，我们都在不同的时间为不同的事情努力着，直到我们选择放弃，或者直到我们死亡，成为更大的演化故事的一部分。这就是所有系统的运作原理，并随时间不断循环。当一个运转系统发生故障，它的部件会回到系统中，成为新系统的部件，而新系统也会随着时间的推移而发展。

Sometimes this makes us sad, because we become very attached to our machines. But if you look at it from the higher level, it's really beautiful to observe how the machine of evolution works. Now you must decide for yourself how you will evolve. Forget about where these principles came from. Just assess whether or not they are useful to you, and evolve them to suit your own needs. As with all of life's decisions, what you do with them is ultimately up to you. My only hope for you is that you have the courage to struggle and evolve well to make your life as great as it can be. Thank you, and goodbye.

有时这让我们很难过，因为我们会变得非常依恋我们的系统。但如果你从更高的层面来看，观察演化的系统是如何运作的，其实很美妙。现在你必须自己决定你将如何进化，忘记这些原则来自哪里，只需评估这些原则是否对你有用，并根据你自己的需要对原则进行调整，正如所有生活中的决定一样，你如何做出决定最终取决于你自己。我对你唯一的期望是要有勇气，去奋斗，去好好成长，使你的人生尽可能精彩。

达利欧34条人生思考

成长必定痛苦，要做反本能的事

人生成长：

学会谦卑，保持你的侵略性

01. 人是如何成长的？

（1）一生中最好的机会，多数来自苦拼的经历。

（2）人需要困难，这对健康来说是必需的。但多数人本能地躲避痛苦，不论是锻炼身体，还是历练头脑，人都会躲避痛苦。

（3）苦拼是对人的创造力、性情的考验，你应该从这些考验中挖掘出最大的价值。

（4）既知道如何努力追求，也知道如何正确的失败。

（5）正确的失败是指，在失败时，努力避开致命性损害；在经历痛苦中，吸取最重要的教训。

02. 我既是一个投资者也是一个企业家，所以我逐渐养成了一种健康的害怕犯错的习惯，并思考出了一种能将犯错可能性最小化的决策方式：以可信度加权的方式做决定。

我犯下的代价惨痛的错误使我改变了看问题的角度，从“我知道我是对的”变成了“我怎么知道我是对的”。

03. 改变学习谦卑的方式，保持你的侵略性，你的无畏，同时学会谦卑。

04. 找到与我观点不同的最聪明的人，以便自己能够努力理解他们的推理。

05. 知道自己在什么时候不能有明确的意见，不急于下结论。

06. 逐步归纳永恒和普适的原则，对其进行测试，将其系统化。

07. 通过平衡风险来保持较大的回报，并降低下行波动。

08. 人在尝试理解任何东西（经济、市场、天气等）时，都可以从两种视角出发：

（1）自上而下：努力找到这些东西背后的唯一驱动法则或规律。例如，在理解市场时，人可以研究影响所有经济和市场的普适法则，如供求关系；在理解物种时，人可以集中了解基因密码是如何对所有物种发生作用的。

（2）自下而上：研究每种具体情况及其背后的法则或规律，例如，小麦市场独特的法则或规律，或者使鸭子区别于其他物种的基因序列。

自上而下地观察事物，是在宏观普适法则背景之下理解我们自身和现实规律的最佳途径。

09. 不要混淆你的愿望和事实。

10. 不要为自身形象担心，只需关心能不能实现你的目标。

11. 不要过于重视直接结果而忽视后续、再后续的结果。

12. 不要让痛苦妨碍进步。

13. 不要把不好的结果归咎于任何人，从自己身上找原因。

14. 面对自身缺点，你有4种选择：

（1）你可以否认缺点（这是大多数人的做法）。

（2）你可以承认缺点并应对缺点，努力把缺点转化为优势（能不能成功取决于你的自我改变能力）。

（3）你可以承认缺点并找到绕过缺点的方法。

（4）或者，你可以改变你的目标。

15. 更喜欢周围的人对你坦诚，而不是隐瞒对你的负面看法。

16. 展现真实的自我，而不是强行把弱点伪装成优势。

17. 不要固守你对事物“应该”是什么样的看法，这将使你无法了解真实的情况。很重要的是，不要让偏见阻碍我们保持客观。想要取得好结果，我们需要冷静而不是情绪化。

18. 有时候，人的体内有两个生命体，甚至多个生命体来回博弈。我们以为自己只有一个自我，其实不是。你的一次行为或一个决定，有时都不是你说了算，而是你体内的很多个自我在大脑里投票产生的决定。

对现实的精准理解，是取得成果的根基。所以，清醒区分自我是你认清和了解事物本质的前提。

19. 痛苦+反思=进步。

每当我犯下痛苦的错误时，我都会把它看作一个谜题，如果我能解开这个谜题，我就能得到一块宝石，这些宝石就是我要记下来的原则，下次不要再犯这类的错误了。

每当你和别人工作，或者是相处时，你可以说这是正确的处理方式，从而，双方是否同意这项原则，从而判断我们是否可以在一起工作，这会是一个神奇的过程。

20. 大多数人犯下的最大错误是不客观看待自己以及其他人，这导致他们一次次地栽在自己或其他人的弱点上。

21. 我喜欢冥想，它让我的人生获益良多：保持内心平静和头脑开放，驾驭更清晰和富有创造性的思考。

练习久了，会有一种习惯性的冷静，每时每刻，不乱方寸，还有超越自身眼界的能力，仿佛站在最高处，更清晰客观地将大局尽收眼底，从而激发我的创造力。

教育：

做与你本能相反的事

01. 年轻人要关注你的存款，看看你有多少存款，最好的办法就是看看你每月花多少，存了多少钱，估算一下这些存款能让你维持几个月，因为存款就是自由和安全感。

02. 怎么能更好地存钱，该怎么存钱，要清楚风险最低、最稳定的投资是存现金，但可能是最差劲的投资，因为要考虑到通货膨胀和收益缴税，所以你要把钱变成资产。

把钱变成资产的过程中，我想告诉你们最重要的一点就是，投资要多样化，我敢保证你投资的众多资产中，总有一两个会惨不忍睹，如果你不知道什么资产好，那你肯定会损失一半的积蓄，所以你最好选择不同国家，不同种类的资产进行投资。

03. 做与你本能相反的事，要想稳赚不赔，就要跟你的本能和大众的想法背道而驰，因为市场就是反映了大多数人的看法，所以没人买入的时候你要买，没人卖出的时候你要卖出。

04. 关于我的教育方式，我总希望孩子们能够独立思考，自己做抉择，我会帮他们明白他们选择可能带来的后果，会为他们指引方向，有时候会强迫他们做某件事，但总的来说，最重要的是要让他们独立思考。

05. 我们都面临一个挑战，因为我们的教育体系，迫使孩子们遵循规章制度，听从书本，教的都是“被认为”是正确的答案，这样教出来的学生，只知道遵循规矩，不懂得独立思考，不知道自己要什么。

这个挑战你能够让你考上一个大学，但同时，他们会丧失创造力和独立思考的能力，这就需要平衡，也是父母需要思考的。

06. 在我孩子们的小时候，如果他们的理由足够充分，我就会同意按照他们的想法做，比如“不想上这门课？”那么就需要想想“不上这门课带来的后果，你的人生将会有什么不一样？”诸如此类的对话，这会帮他们实现追求，有更高的自我价值体系。

07. 如果你能独立思考，同时保持开放的头脑，清醒地寻找并发现最适合你的事情，如果你能鼓起勇气这么做，你将会让自己的生命发挥最大的价值。

08. 独立思考并决定：你想要什么，事实是什么。面对事实，你如何实现自己的愿望，而且要保持谦逊和心胸开阔，以便你能动用自己的最佳思维。

管理：

领导者最糟糕的是做不好自己

01. 就公司一致同意的相处规范而言，最重要的一条是，我们需要做三件事：

（1）把我们的真实想法摆在桌面上；

（2）存在经过深思熟虑的分歧，但人们愿意在相互了解的过程中更改观点；

（3）如果分歧依然存在，拥有一种大家一致同意的决策方式（如投票或者拥有清晰的权威），以便我们能够不带怨气地把分歧留在身后。我相信任何组织或任何人际关系想要保持得好，这些都是必需的。

02. 不要纠结于“埋怨”还是“赞美”，而要专注于“准确”还是“不准确”。

03. 最有效的领导者的工作目的在于：

（1）开明地寻找最佳答案；

（2）带领他人一道进行寻找。

这就实现了一起学习、求取共识的局面。

04. 在我看来，一个管理者能够实现的最大成功就是能够组织其他人在没有你的情况下把事情做好。次好的情况是你自己能把事情做好，最糟糕的是连你自己都做不好。

05. 每个人都有权利和责任尽力了解重要的事情，还必须保持谦逊和非常开放的心态。

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