中国之后看印度？ | 经济学人国际

2023-04-12 02:04

导读

02 新手必读

现在翻译组成员由牛津，耶鲁，LSE ，纽卡斯尔，曼大，爱大，圣三一，NUS，墨大，北大，北外，北二外，北语，外交，交大，人大，上外，浙大等70多名因为情怀兴趣爱好集合到一起的译者组成，组内现在有catti一笔20+，博士8人，如果大家有兴趣且符合条件请加入我们，可以参看帖子我们招人啦！

五大翻译组成员介绍：（http://navo.top/7zeYZn）

1.关于阅读经济学人（如何阅读经济学人？）

2.TE||如何快速入门一个陌生知识领域（超链，点击进入）

2.为什么希望大家能点下右下角“在看”或者留言？

在看越多，留言越多，证明大家对翻译组的认可，因为我们不收大家任何费用，但是简单的点击一下在看，却能给翻译组成员带来无尽的动力，有了动力才能更好的为大家提供更好的翻译作品，也就能够找到更好的人，这是一个正向的循环。

听力|精读|翻译|词组

Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia?

经济增速哪家强？印度印尼来较量

英文部分选自经济学人20230401国际版块

Which will grow faster: India or Indonesia?

经济增速哪家强？印度印尼来较量

Both countries are pioneering new ways to get rich in a troubled world

世界局势动荡不安，两国都在开辟经济增长新思路

If you are looking for growth opportunities among the world’s 20 biggest economies, two stand out: India and Indonesia. The Asian giants, with a combined population of 1.7bn, are forecast by the IMF to be the two fastest-growing top-20 economies in 2023, and over the next five years. Both are pioneering strategies for getting richer in an era of de-globalisation, fraught geopolitics, automation and energy shifts, even as they seek a political formula that wins elections and avoids social unrest. Whether they succeed matters not just for their people and the investors betting many billions of dollars on them. It will also set an example for scores of other countries searching for new and reliable ways to develop in the 2020s and beyond.

谈起世界前二十大经济体的增长前景，印度和印度尼西亚无疑最值得关注。根据国际货币基金组织的预测，这两个总人口达17亿的亚洲巨头，在2023年及未来五年将成为世界前二十大经济体中增速最快的经济体。在这个逆全球化趋势抬头、地缘政治动荡不安、自动化与能源转型不断推进的时代，两国在寻求政治方案以求政党赢得选举、避免社会动乱之际，不忘探索致富新策略。新策略成功与否，不仅对于本国人民和投下了亿万美元的投资者来说影响重大，也会给其他许多在为本世纪20年代及之后寻求可行的新发展模式的国家指明方向。

For decades developing countries have followed a trusted formula for growing wealthier. Move workers from fields to more productive manufacturing jobs in cities, have them make goods for export, and watch the rapid formalisation of the economy. It worked in South Korea and Taiwan. In China it saw 800m people escape poverty. But today this scheme no longer works well. Protectionism challenges export-led growth. Factories use more robots.

几十年来，发展中国家一直遵循同一种可靠的致富模式，即把劳动力从农田转移到生产效率更高的城市制造业，生产大量出口商品，经济迅速正规化。这一模式在韩国和台湾地区取得了成功，同时帮助中国大陆8亿人口脱离贫困。但如今这条老路却不再行得通。贸易保护主义严重挑战出口导向型增长，工厂里的机器人也越来越多。

At first glance, India and Indonesia have much in common. Both are led by charismatic leaders first elected in 2014, and both will hold elections next year. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, and Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi), Indonesia’s president, cut their teeth in local politics and have a reputation for getting things done. They run vast (India has 1.4bn people and Indonesia 280m) and relatively young countries with myriad ethnicities and languages.

初看之下，印度和印尼有许多共同之处。比如，两国都将在明年进行选举，且现任领导人均于2014年首次当选，还都具有超凡魅力；印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪（Narendra Modi）和印尼总统佐科·维多多（Joko Widodo）（人们常称他为“佐科威”）都在地方政坛崭露头角，以“能成事”出名；而且，他们治理的都是人口庞大（印度有14亿人口，印尼有2.8亿人口）且相对年轻的国家，两国都种族多元、语言种类繁多。

Both places have grown quickly: India’s GDP has expanded by 71% over the past decade, and Indonesia’s by 52%. Services, not manufacturing, dominate output (see chart). Both are fairly open, with trade at around 40% of GDP and annual inflows of foreign direct investment worth some 1.5% of GDP. Both are largely informal: 90% of India’s workers and 60% of Indonesia’s toil in the grey economy. The state is small by rich-world standards: public spending comes to just 30% of GDP in India and 18% in Indonesia.

两国的经济增长势头迅猛：过去十年，印度的国内生产总值（GDP）猛增71%，印尼则是52%；两国均以服务业为主导，而非制造业（如表所示）；两国都相当开放，贸易约占GDP的40%，每年流入的外国直接投资约占1.5%；两国均以非正式经济为主：印度90%的工人和印尼60%的工人都在灰色经济活动中辛苦劳作；依照富裕国家标准，两国政府规模都比较小：印度的公共支出仅占GDP的30%，而印尼仅占18%。

Both countries are in the midst of ambitious infrastructure build-outs. Indonesia has built 18 ports, 21 airports and 1,700km of toll roads since Jokowi took office. India is adding 10,000km of highway each year. Yet there is still a huge amount of economic catch-up to exploit. Indonesia’s gross national income per person is $4,180 and India’s is about half that: both are “lower middle-income” economies.

不仅如此，两国的基础设施扩建也正如火如荼地开展。自从佐科威上任以来，印尼已新建18个港口、21个机场和长达1700公里的收费公路；在印度，每年都有长达1万公里的公路落成。然而在国民经济上，两国都还有很长的一段路要追赶。作为“中低收入”经济体，印尼的人均国民总收入为4180美元，而印度只有一半左右。

That is where the similarities end. To illuminate this we considered four areas in each country: the leading export sector; industrial policy; their geopolitical stance; and their strategy for pleasing voters. Start with export successes, a reflection of comparative advantage. In India the leading export sector is technology services. Thanks to its ability to crank out half a million new engineers a year, in 2021 India accounted for 15% of global IT services spending. Indonesia’s advantage lies in commodities, some of which, such as nickel, are in global demand owing to the energy transition. By 2030 Indonesia will be the world’s fourth-largest producer of the “green commodities” used in batteries and grids.

相似之处到此为止，接下来看看两国的不同之处。为此，我们比较了四个领域：出口领跑行业、产业政策、地缘政治立场和取悦选民的策略。先从出口说起，两国都充分发挥比较优势，战绩不菲。技术服务是印度出口的强劲行业，凭借每年培养的50万名工程师，2021年印度占全球IT服务支出的15%。印尼的优势则在大宗商品，能源转型导致镍在内的部分大宗商品在全球范围内需求上升。到2030年，印尼将成为世界第四大“绿色商品”生产国，这些商品主要用于电池和电网。

注释：

crank out: to produce especially in a mechanical manner 加工

These industries generate chunky foreign earnings. In 2021 tech services made up about 17% of India’s exports by value, and commodities (excluding fuel) accounted for 22% of Indonesia’s. But these sectors generate few jobs: even India’s IT industry has only 5m workers.

这些出口行业带来了丰厚的海外收入。2021年，技术服务占印度出口总值的17%，（燃料以外的）大宗商品占印尼出口额的22%。然而，这些行业创造的就业却很少：即便是印度的IT行业，也仅有500万岗位。

Both governments want to supercharge the private sector through industrial policy. India has a more auspicious starting-point (see chart two). The MSCI India index, which covers about 85% of the market, is worth some $830bn, about 24% of GDP. The Indonesia Index is worth just $123bn, or 10% of GDP. India has 108 “unicorn” businesses (ie, valued at over $1bn), more than any other country except America and China. Indonesia has produced fewer than a dozen. Mr Modi is betting on $30bn of “production-linked incentives” to catalyse investment in 14 priority industries, including semiconductors. His pledge to achieve “net-zero” emissions of greenhouse gases by 2070 involves building solar farms, producing batteries and much more. Beyond greenery, the idea is to create jobs and cut the cost of power. India’s energy-import bill is expected to drop from 4% of GDP in 2021 to 2.5% in 2032.

两国政府都希望通过产业政策为私营部门注入活力。印度的起点更有利（见图2），覆盖85%市场的MSCI印度指数市值约8300亿美元，相当于印度GDP的24%。印尼指数的市值仅为1230亿美元，占GDP的10%。印度有108家“独角兽”企业（即估值超过10亿美元的企业），仅次于美国和中国。印尼的独角兽企业则屈指可数。印度斥资300亿美元作为“生产相关的激励”，以刺激包括半导体在内的14个重点行业的投资。莫迪总理承诺到2070年实现温室气体的“净零”排放，包括建造太阳能发电厂、生产电池等多项措施，不仅利于环境，而且可以创造就业，降低电力成本。印度能源进口费用有望从2021年占GDP的4%降至2032年的2.5%。

注释：

1.auspicious: showing or suggesting that future success is likely 吉利的

2.MSCI index: “MSCI国家指数”由摩根士丹利资本国际公司（MSCI）收集每个上市公司的股价、发行量、大股东持有量、自由流通量、每月交易量等数据，并将上市公司按全球行业分类标准(GICS)进行分类，在每一个行业以一定的标准选取60%市值的股票作为成份股，选取标准包括规模（市值）、长期短期交易量、交叉持股情况和流通股数量。（来源：百度百科-MSCI国家指数）

3.greenery: green foliage or plants (Merriam-Webster Dictionary). 绿植

The Indonesian government’s flagship industrial policy, “downstreaming”, is focused on natural resources. It uses sticks more than carrots. It hopes that by banning exports of selected raw materials, it will push multinationals to build refineries locally. Exports of raw nickel, for example, were prohibited in 2014. The number of nickel smelters has grown from two before the ban, to 13 in 2020 and as many as 30 by the end of this year. A ban on bauxite exports will soon take effect. Plans are afoot to shimmy higher up the value chain. Indonesia aims to make electric-car batteries with a total capacity of 140GWh in 2030—almost as much as global production in 2020. Last year Hyundai, a carmaker, started building electric cars in Indonesia.

印尼政府的产业政策核心为“产业下游化”，尤其是在自然资源领域，奉行大棒（惩罚）而非胡萝卜（奖励）政策。政府希望通过禁止特定原材料的出口，促使跨国公司在当地建造精炼厂。例如2014年禁止生镍出口，镍冶炼厂数量从禁令前的2家增加到2020年的13家，到今年底将增至30家。铝土出口的禁令很快也将实行。印尼正酝酿各项计划，旨在不断向价值链上游攀升。印尼的目标是到2030年，电动汽车电池总产量达到140千兆瓦时——几乎与2020年的全球总产量相当。去年，汽车制造商现代也开始在印尼设厂生产电动汽车。

注释：

1.afoot: in the process of development (Merriam-Webster Dictionary). 进行中

2.shimmy: to shake, quiver, or tremble in or as if in dancing a shimmy (Merriam-Webster Dictionary). 摇动

Getting rich quickly

快速致富

Which model will deliver the quickest growth? The countries face some common problems, such as cronyism. Jokowi is surrounded by well-connected tycoons; in India the troubles of the Adani Group, an influential conglomerate, have been national news. Arvind Subramanian, a former economic adviser to the Indian government, points out that the zaibatsu conglomerates in Japan and the chaebol in South Korea operated in tradable sectors, forcing them to compete with international rivals. But Adani and other favourites mainly service the domestic market, leaving them sheltered. This charge may also apply to Indonesian firms.

哪种模式可以带来最快速的经济增长呢？两国都面临任人唯亲等共同问题。佐科威身边都是有着强硬后台的大亨；在印度，极具权势的阿达尼集团(Adani Group)面临重重困境，举国皆知。印度政府前首席经济顾问阿尔温德·萨勃拉曼尼亚（Arvind Subramanian）指出，日本财阀（zaibatsu）与韩国财阀集团（chaebol）的经营范围涉及贸易领域，因此必须与国际对手较量。但印度阿达尼集团和其他备受偏爱的公司主攻国内市场，可以受到更多庇护。印尼的公司也有同样的问题。

注释：

1.charge n. a statement of complaint or hostile criticism

2.The tradable sector of a country's economy is made up of the industry sectors whose output in terms of goods and services are traded internationally, or could be traded internationally given a plausible variation in relative prices. Most commonly, the tradable sector consists largely of sectors of the manufacturing industry, while the non-tradable sector consists of locally-rendered services, including health, education, retail and construction.

Source: wikipedia

Ultimately, with its deeper private sector and capital markets India is likely to continue to grow faster. The risk lies in its politics. Both countries’ models of development rely on a narrow part of the economy racing ahead; on wealth trickling down through the informal economy or welfare schemes; and on the political system being able to manage the resulting social pressures. In Indonesia the government moulds and placates public opinion; in India it sometimes incites and directs public anger. In the short term that may not matter much. In the long run, it may be a serious problem.

最终，凭借更加深入发展的私营部门与资本市场，印度的增速很可能会继续高于印尼。然而，其政治却暗藏风险。印度与印尼的发展模式都仰赖一小部分经济的快速发展，仰赖通过非正式经济或福利计划涓滴下来的财富，以及仰赖能妥善应对随之而来的社会压力的政治系统。在印尼，政府致力于影响安抚民意；而在印度，政府有时煽动甚至有意引导民愤。短期而言，这可能并无大碍。但从长远来看，其危险不容小觑。

注释：ultimately adv. at the most basic and important level

翻译组：

Charlie，往者不谏，来者可追

Eva，寻路中，偶尔怀念，时常向前

Alfredo，清纯男高体验卡仅剩几个月到期

校对组：

Rain，蒙村小香菜

Alison，“贪玩又自由的风筝”

Hannah，女，做个废柴，保持愉快

观点|评论|思考

本期感想

VeRy，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

人生的不同阶段都有不同的目标，大概国家也是类似。

当我们还在为不饿肚子而努力时，我们大概不会去谈世界的和谐发展，谈了不仅会无人理会，相反，甚至会让他人笑话。当然有理想是好事，我们在小学时对同桌谈以后一定要娶她，她并不会嘲笑你的豪言壮语。所以假如印度和印尼在畅想彼此美好未来时，估计也是怀着共勉之心。（虽然我感觉印度一向来有莫名的骄傲和自信，对印尼还不一定看得起。）

等我们长大点，手头上有些家伙时，我们所说的就渐渐无人敢当作笑话了，这时我们也开始膨胀起来，有自信、有点骄傲：我们开始会劝架沙隆巴斯兄弟的打打闹闹，会免除兄弟们的借款，也会给兄弟们家里添置一些家具。虽然在外人看来有点暴发户的味道，但是兄弟们获得的东西却是实实在在的。

所以古往今来，我们不同时期的活法都是类似的，但却无往不会走入盛极而衰的境地，这是历史的必然，但对于老百姓来说，能够在衰之前死去却是幸运的。这必然是一种偶然：我们掉入哪个历史时期就好像我们生于哪类家庭一般，并非自己能够掌控，所以心态要摆正，往下走时就不要有大的期望了。有能力的就跑去别的往上走的兄弟家干活，这大概是大环境下唯一的出路。

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

01 第十期外刊精读课

想要读懂更多外刊，

尽在外刊精读课

从字词-逻辑结构-背景-专业性答疑，

从预习-精读-泛读，全方位训练英语思维，

带你转外刊！两期连报，价格更低哦！

点击下图，即可了解精读课详情！

02 早起打卡营

一年半以来，小编已经带着15000多人早起打卡

早起倒逼自己早睡，戒掉夜宵，戒掉手机

让你发现一个全新的自己，创造早睡早起的奇迹！

早起是最简单的自律！

第60期六点早起打卡营

欢迎你的加入！

点击下图，即可了解早起打卡营详情！

微信扫码关注该文公众号作者

戳这里提交新闻线索和高质量文章给我们。

来源: qq

点击查看作者最近其他文章