博弈论先驱约翰·查尔斯·海萨尼 | 经济学人讣告
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John Harsanyi
约翰·海萨尼
英文部分选自经济学人20000907讣告
John Harsanyi
约翰·海萨尼
John Charles Harsanyi, a pioneer in game theory, died on August 9th, aged 80
博弈论先驱约翰·查尔斯·海萨尼于2000年8月9日去世，享年80岁。
Obituary Sep 7th 2000
讣告•2000年9月7日
IT SOUNDS pretty obvious: life is all a game. Charles Lamb (1775-1834) put it rather elegantly: “Man is a gaming animal. He must always be trying to get the better in something or other.” What John Harsanyi and other economists did was to apply mathematical logic to this human and make game theory, as it is called, part of their tool kit. At its humblest level, game theory is useful in saving the players from going mad. In devising a strategy you know that your rival may know what you are planning, and he knows that you know he knows, and so on... Even skilled chess-players can feel mentally wounded.
人生如戏，一听了然。查尔斯·兰姆（1775-1834）说得相当优雅：“人是游戏动物，须时刻力争上游。” 约翰·海萨尼和其他经济学家努力应用数学逻辑解释人类行为，“博弈论”是他们使用的一种经济分析工具。博弈论最基本的作用是帮助玩家保持理智。制定策略时，你知道你的对手可能知道你的打算，而他也知道你知道他知道，如此循环……哪怕是经验丰富的棋手也会感到伤脑筋。
In chess and comparable real-life games, each side has basic information about the other. The problem of Charles Lamb's gaming animals is that they usually have imperfect knowledge about their opponents. They guessed, or relied on “intuition” or, as Napoleon said of his favourite generals, they were lucky. Until quite recent times, this was the way countries and great companies dealt with their rivals.
在国际象棋和类似的现实游戏中，双方都掌握对方的基本信息。人类是查尔斯·兰姆笔下的游戏动物，但问题在于他们通常并不掌握对手的所有信息。他们靠猜测，凭“直觉”，或者像拿破仑评价他的爱将那样——赌运气。在过去的很长时间里，这都是国家和大企业对付竞争对手的方式。
Mr Harsanyi's contribution to game theory was to show that such games need not be played in a fog, or at least not much. It was possible to analyse such games and provide guidance about the probable moves and their outcomes. This advanced game theory was employed, at least by the Americans, in their negotiations with the Soviet Union on arms control. Kennedy and Khrushchev used game theory in their tussle over Cuban missiles in 1962.
海萨尼对博弈论的贡献在于揭示了这类游戏不是在迷雾中瞎摸乱撞，至少大部分情况不是这样。这一类游戏可以用博弈论分析，进而推断可能的后续行动和结果。美国在与苏联的军控谈判当中应用了高阶博弈论。1962年，肯尼迪和赫鲁晓夫在古巴导弹危机的较量期间也用到了博弈论。
Game theory is widely used in commerce, as happened this year when, with great success, the British government sold licences for mobile phone services in an auction designed by an Oxford economist, Paul Klemperer.Some economists are watching with fascination the contest between the European Central Bank and the currency market over the future of the euro, which has at least the look of an exercise in game theory. A Dutch team of economists applied the theory to international football and concluded that a bad team playing at home is more likely to score than a good one playing away. One effect of game theory is to make economists seem quite human.
博弈论在商业领域应用广泛。今年（注：2000年），英国政府通过牛津大学经济学家保罗·克伦佩勒（Paul Klempeter）的设计，以拍卖的形式出售移动通信服务牌照，这就是一次博弈论的巨大成功。当前，一些经济学家热切关注欧洲央行和货币市场围绕欧元前景的较量，这场对决至少在表面上也是一次博弈论的实践。一个荷兰的经济学家团队用博弈论分析国际足球态势，并得出如下结论：主场作战的弱队比客场作战的强队进球几率更高。博弈论带来的一大影响就是让经济学家看起来跟凡人差不多。
By other names
早有博弈论
As often happens when an idea becomes fashionable, there has been some argument about who first thought of game theory. Mr Harsanyi, who shared a Nobel prize in 1994 with two other economists in the same field, John Nash and Reinhard Selten, was happy to acknowledge that game theory had been around in some form for a long time. Players of poker, and of course chess, had been using game theory without calling it that. Philosophy has a claim: it seeks to rationalise the behaviour of people with conflicting interests. As a young man in Budapest Mr Harsanyi had studied philosophy and mathematics and, to please his parents who ran a pharmacy, he added chemistry.
一个想法得到追捧后，经常会发生关于原创性的争论，博弈论也是如此。1994年，海萨尼与另外两位研究博弈论的经济学家约翰·纳什（John Nash）和赖因哈德·泽尔滕（Reinhard Selten）共同获得诺贝尔奖。海萨尼欣然承认博弈论存在已久，只是形式不同。牌桌和棋盘上一直都在使用博弈论，只不过叫法不同而已。哲学试图将有利益冲突的人的行为合理化，这也是博弈论的一种表现形式。海萨尼年轻时在布达佩斯学习哲学和数学，为了取悦开药房的父母，他还学了化学。
Hungary entered the second world war on the side of Germany and Mr Harsanyi, a Jew, was imprisoned. He was with a group about to be sent to a concentration camp when he removed the yellow star that Jews had to wear and walked away. A guard stopped him, but not all his fellow countrymen were Nazis, and he let him go. After the war Hungary became a communist state. Mr Harsanyi put up with it for a time, and continued with his studies, but in 1950 he left for Australia, about as far away from Europe as he could get.
二战时，匈牙利加入德国一方，身为犹太人的海萨尼被捕入狱。就在即将被押往集中营时，他扒掉了犹太人必须佩戴的黄色星星，离开了队伍。一名警卫拦下了他，但这个匈牙利人不是纳粹，放他走了。战争结束后，匈牙利建立了共产主义国家。海萨尼在匈牙利呆了一阵子，继续自己的学业。但在1950年，他还是去了澳大利亚，尽可能远离欧洲。
The Australians did not recognise his Hungarian degrees, so he worked in a factory for several years and studied part-time until he gained some Aussie ones. Mr Harsanyi made his way quite swiftly up the academic ladder, first in Australia and then in the United States, where he was a professor in the business school of the University of California at Berkeley for 26 years.
澳大利亚不承认他的匈牙利文凭，所以他先在一家工厂干了几年，期间利用业余时间学习，并获得了数个澳大利亚学位。海萨尼在学术界飞速高升，先在澳大利亚（任教），后来前往美国，在加州大学伯克利分校商学院担任教授，一做就是26年。
What triggered his interest in game theory appears to have been the work of John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, who in 1944 published a book entitled “The Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour”. Von Neumann was an American mathematician who, by coincidence, had also been born in Hungary and had attended the same school as Mr Harsanyi. He and Morgenstern may have been the first to show how the philosophical idea of rational behaviour could be applied to economics.They did not develop the idea. In his short life, von Neumann especially had many other interests, including work on quantum theory and the design of the first electronic computers. In paper after paper, Mr Harsanyi and his colleagues took the theory further. It is still being polished.
约翰·冯·诺依曼（John von Neumann）和奥斯卡·摩根斯特恩（Oskar Morgenstern）于1944年出版了一本名为《博弈论与经济行为》的书，二人的研究成果引起了海萨尼对博弈论的兴趣。冯·诺依曼是一名美国数学家，恰巧生于匈牙利，还和海萨尼是校友。他和摩根斯特恩可能是最早将理性行为这一哲学概念应用于经济学的人，但他们没有对这一观点作进一步拓展。冯·诺依曼一生短暂，但涉猎很广，包括研究量子理论以及设计第一台电子计算机。海萨尼和他的同事们发表一篇又一篇论文，不断推动博弈论往前发展。至今，博弈论的研究仍在继续。
The philosopher in John Harsanyi saw in game theory a means of improving the human condition. He promoted the idea that the rightness or wrongness of an action depended on its consequences, an ethical theory known as utilitarianism. The connection between game theory and ethics is a complex one. His book on this theme, “Essays on Ethics, Social Behaviour and Scientific Explanation”, is a hard read, just as game theory itself demands lots of tricky mathematics. No one would blame you for sticking to Charles Lamb.
约翰·海萨尼从哲学的角度认为博弈论是改善人类境况的一种手段。他推崇行为的对错取决于后果，这种伦理理论被称为功利主义。博弈论与伦理学之间的联系十分复杂，海萨尼就此专门写了一本书，名为《伦理学、社会行为和科学解释论文集》。这本书相当艰深，就像研究博弈论需要懂很多很难的数学知识一样。因此如果你只能读懂查尔斯·兰姆的书，没人会怪你。
翻译组：
Alex，不务正业的理工男
Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋
Qianna，对语言有点敏感，对逻辑十分执拗，对摇滚太过着迷
校对组：
UU，允许别人做别人，允许自己做自己
Nikolae，新手人民教师，声优探索者，乃木坂47与AKB49
Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译（年年备战一口）
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观点|评论|思考
命运的弈，智慧的舞
约翰·海萨尼，他的名字犹如一颗璀璨的明星，照亮了博弈论的无垠天空，引领我们穿越决策的茫茫星海。博弈论，宛如一场无声的角力，而海萨尼的思想，则如同一股隽永的清风，轻拂着人们的心扉，让人不禁沉思。
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愿景