英国：脱欧之后，美梦幻灭 | 经济学人
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思维导图作者：
May Li，男，我要去追逐心中的太阳，还要继续努力的亚古兽
02 新手必读
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Britain | Buyers’ remorse
英国 | 买家懊悔无及
英文部分选自经济学人20230624期商业板块
Britain | Buyers’ remorse
英国 | 买家懊悔无及
As Britons grow more unhappy with Brexit, what happens next?
英国人对脱欧愈发不满，未来会发生什么？
Don’t expect anyone to talk of rejoining the EU
不要指望再谈重返欧盟
Politics is routinely dominated by the short run: in-party scraps; looming by-elections. But quietly shifting and longer-term trends risk being neglected. One such is the rise of disillusion with Brexit. Polls from YouGov, Ipsos and NatCen Social Research all find that sizeable majorities of Britons now regret the decision to leave the European Union. The latest numbers show a margin as wide as 60-40% for those wishing that Britain had remained in the eu, compared with the 52-48% vote to leave in June 2016.
不管是党内的斗争还是迫在眉睫的补选，政治常常考虑的是些“近忧”。悄然变化的长期趋势却可能被忽视，其中之一就是脱欧后的美梦逐渐破灭。在YouGov、Ipsos和NatCen Social Research等民意调查中，有相当多数的英国人现在后悔投了脱欧一票。最新的数据显示，如今支持当初留欧和脱欧的差距已达到60%对40%，而2016年6月那场英国脱欧公投中只有48%对52%。
Had all of those with an opinion on Brexit voted seven years ago, the result would have been even closer. Still, the numbers suggest a steady shift. What explains it? Several factors, according to Sir John Curtice, of NatCen, who spoke at a recent conference of the uk in a Changing Europe think-tank. Demography is one: older people mostly backed leave while younger ones preferred remain, so the passage of time tilts against Brexit. Those who did not vote in 2016 now break strongly against leaving the eu. Remain supporters are almost all still convinced they were right. But the most significant change is that as many as 20% of those who backed leave in 2016 now say they would support remain instead.
如果所有对英国脱欧有意见的人在七年前参加公投，结果会和现在更加接近。不过这些数字还是表明了一种平稳的转变。这该如何解释呢？英国国家社会研究中心的约翰•柯蒂斯（John Curtice）爵士在最近“欧洲变局中的英国”智囊会议上指出了几个因素，其中之一就是人口结构的变化：老年人大多支持脱欧，而年轻人则倾向于留欧，因此随着时间的流逝，反对脱欧的比率自然会上升。那些在2016年没有投票的人现在也强烈反对脱欧。留欧派几乎都仍然相信他们是对的。但最重要的变化是，2016年支持脱欧的人里，有多达20%现在反过来表示支持留欧。
Why? The obvious answer is disappointment with the outcome. Voters’ concerns have moved beyond Europe to focus on more short-term worries—the high cost of living, falling real wages, struggling public services and high immigration. Brexiteers like to argue that such ills were largely caused by covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. A few also argue, like Marxists of yore, that true Brexit has never been properly tried. Yet leaving the eu has clearly made at least some problems worse. Britain was one of the last g7 economies to recover to its pre-covid level of output; growth remains nugatory; most economists reckon extra barriers to trade have had damaging economic effects; inflation and interest rates are higher than in most other European countries; net migration is running at its highest level ever.
为什么会这样？显然是因为对脱欧后现状的失望。选民们的关注点已从对欧洲大势的“远虑”转为对当下英国社会的“近忧”：生活成本居高不下、实际工资不增反降、公共服务陷入困境、移民浪潮持续走高。脱欧派一口咬定是新冠疫情与俄乌冲突带来了这些弊病。更有一些人像过去的马克思主义者一样叫嚣称真正的脱欧从未得到正确的尝试。不过，显然脱欧至少让一些问题更加尖锐。英国是七国集团（G7）中最后恢复到疫情前产出水平的国家之一；经济增长依旧无望；大多数经济学家都认为脱欧带来的额外贸易壁垒对经济产生了破坏性影响；通货膨胀和利率高于大多数其他欧洲国家；净移民人数也达到了历史最高水平。
Most of the specific promises made by the Vote Leave campaign in 2016 have proved illusory, too. This goes beyond the notorious red-bus pledge of £350m ($445m) extra a week for the nhs. The campaign claimed that trade with the eu would go on much as before, red tape would be swiftly shredded and big new free-trade deals with America and others would be simple to deliver. The broadest promise, that there would be no downside to Brexit but only considerable upside, looks empty. When Nigel Farage, the former leader of the uk Independence Party, admits (as he did in May) that “Brexit has failed” and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Tory Brexiteer, is laughed at for citing the benefits of Brexit, rising disillusion seems less surprising.
事实证明，2016年脱欧运动提出的大多数具体承诺也都是虚无缥缈，甚至比臭名昭著的“红巴士”承诺，即每周额外为国民保健服务NHS增加3.5亿英镑（折合4.45亿美元）还夸张。脱欧运动声称会保持与欧盟的贸易往来，迅速打破繁文缛节，与美国和其他国家签订新的大型自由贸易协议将很容易实现。英国脱欧百利而无一害这一最广泛的承诺看上去只是一纸空谈。英国独立党（Independence Party）前党魁奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）承认（就像他5月份提过的一样）“英国脱欧失败了”，保守党脱欧派人士雅各布·里斯-莫格爵士（Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg）因引用英国脱欧的好处而受到嘲笑，越来越多的幻灭也就不足为奇了。
注释：
red-bus pledge: In 2016 Boris Johnson toured the UK in a red bus with the slogan: “We send the EU £350million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead.”
This does not mean that there is growing demand to rejoin the eu. Europe is falling down the list of voters’ priorities and almost nobody wants to reopen such a bitterly divisive issue. Yet there is scope to soften the hard Brexit agreed to by Boris Johnson in December 2020. In February Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, won kudos for negotiating the Windsor framework. That resolved many practical problems over the border in the Irish Sea created by Mr Johnson’s decision to take Great Britain out of the eu’s single market and customs union but leave Northern Ireland in both. This week Britain and the eu signed a memorandum of understanding on regulatory co-operation over financial services, though it will do little to open up the eu market to London-based firms. As the chances of a Labour government after the next election rise, so do hopes that it may further improve relations with the eu.
这并不意味着要求重回欧盟的呼声越来越高。欧洲在选民心中的份量越来越轻，几乎没有人愿意重新讨论这样一个引起严重分歧的问题。然而，鲍里斯·约翰逊（Boris Johnson）在2020年12月达成的硬脱欧仍有软化的余地。今年2月，英国首相里希·苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）因温莎框架谈判而赢得赞誉。此前，约翰逊在任期间英国决定退出欧盟单一市场和关税同盟，但北爱尔兰却留了下来，许多爱尔兰海边界上的实际问题在温莎框架下现得以解决。本周，英国和欧盟签署了一份关于金融服务监管合作的谅解备忘录，不过这对于总部位于伦敦的公司开放欧盟市场来说用处不大。随着工党赢得下次选举的可能性不断增加，人们也希望工党能进一步改善与欧盟的关系。
注释：
1. the hard Brexit: a phrase used during the Brexit process to capture the anticipated economic, social and political impact of a sharp break in relations between the UK and the EU as a result of the UK leaving the bloc.
2. 温莎框架：2月27日，英国首相苏纳克和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行联合新闻发布会，宣布双方就英国脱欧后的北爱尔兰贸易争端达成新的协议，即《温莎框架》。内容之一是：从英国大不列颠岛运往北爱地区的货物中，目的地为北爱地区的货物走检查程序精简的绿色车道，而最终目的地为欧盟的货物走红色车道，接受常规的海关检查。《温莎框架》还引入了“斯托蒙特刹车机制”，即北爱地方议会（其议会大厦又称“斯托蒙特”）有权反对在该地区实施的欧盟新规则。
source: https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_22162058
Sir Keir Starmer, Labour’s leader, insists he will not rejoin the single market or customs union. David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, suggests the eu would not agree anyway unless the Tories changed their stance. But he also told a recent meeting of the eu-uk forum, a talking-shop in Brussels, that better relations with the eu were his “number one priority”. Labour figures have floated various ideas. These include more formal security and defence co-operation; a veterinary agreement to facilitate trade in food; full association with the eu’s Horizon and Copernicus scientific-research programmes; a mobility deal to reduce visa hassles for travelling musicians and others; and an enhanced agreement on financial and other services.
工党领袖基尔·斯塔默爵士（Sir Keir Starmer）坚称，他不会重新加入单一市场或关税同盟。影子外交大臣大卫·拉米（David Lammy）表示，除非保守党改变立场，否则欧盟无论如何也不会同意（英国重返欧盟）。但他也在近期于布鲁塞尔召开的欧盟—英国论坛（一场空谈会）上表示，改善与欧盟的关系是他的“首要任务”。工党人士提出了各种各样的想法，其中包括更正式的安全和防务合作；一项促进食品贸易的兽药协定；同欧盟的地平线与哥白尼科学研究计划全面合作；一项为巡演音乐家和其他人减少签证麻烦的流动协议以及加强金融和其他服务的协议。
注释：
1. The Veterinary Agreement governs the control of animal diseases, trade in animals and animal products and the import of these animals and products from third countries. It creates the basis for the common veterinary area.
2. 影子大臣：和执政党相对的在野党（一般是最大在野党）内大臣及内阁的称呼。
source: https://www.zhihu.com/question/38155102
At least you have sovereignty
至少，主权在握
Three more suggestions for how thicker relations with the eu might be added to Mr Johnson’s notably thin trade and co-operation agreement (tca) have appeared. In April the House of Lords eu committee published a report on how to improve ties in the political, diplomatic, security, climate-change and mobility fields. In May the uk trade and business commission, co-convened by Hilary Benn, former Labour chairman of the House of Commons Brexit committee, came up with 114 ideas for mitigating the damage to trade. And in late June the Tony Blair Institute, a think-tank, put forward its own shopping list of proposals for closer relations with the eu.
约翰逊的贸易与合作协定（TCA）中的实质内容十分有限，如何在此基础上进一步深化与欧盟的关系，现已有三拨人提出了建议。4月，英国上议院欧盟委员会发表了一份报告，内容是关于如何改善与欧盟在政治、外交、安全、气候变化和移动领域的连结。5月，英国下议院脱欧委员会的前工党主席希拉里·本恩（Hilary Benn）联合召集了英国贸易和商业委员会，提出了114项旨在减轻贸易损失的建议。而在6月底，智库托尼·布莱尔研究所（Tony Blair Institute）列出了其认为可与欧盟建立更为紧密关系的建议清单。
The biggest obstacle lies in persuading the eu to agree to any such ideas. At the meeting of the eu-uk forum, Maros Sefcovic of the European Commission suggested that trade barriers were likely to get worse not better, and saw little hope for big changes during a five-year review of the tca that is due in 2025-26. The commission thinks the review should be mainly about implementing the 2021 deal, not expanding it. The eu likes the existing arrangement, as it helps goods exports but does little for services, Britain’s strength. It is also wary of a non-member cherry-picking the benefits of its single market without signing up to associated obligations.
如何劝说欧盟接受这些建议，是最大困难所在。在欧盟-英国论坛会议上，欧盟委员会的马罗斯·塞夫科维奇（Maros Sefcovic）提出，贸易壁垒很可能会变得更糟而非更好，而且在2025-26年将完成的贸易合作协定评估期间几乎没有可能会有重大改变。欧盟委员会认为，评估应该主要围绕执行2021年协议，而非去扩展协议。欧盟喜欢当前的安排，因为它利于商品出口，而较少关乎服务贸易，而服务贸易正是英国所长。对一个没有签署相关义务，却从欧盟单一市场中独享利益的非成员国，欧盟也持谨慎态度。
There are two political lessons to draw from Brexit disillusion. One: it is no longer possible for the Tories to persuade voters who backed them in 2019 not to switch to Labour for fear of losing the advantages of Brexit—for these are so difficult to discern. The other: whoever wins the next election, the trend will be towards closer relations with the eu, not moving further away. The process may take longer than anti-Brexiteers hope, and it will always be a mistake to take eu assent to future changes for granted. Yet Brussels and national capitals will surely feel under strong pressure to be nicer to Britain, especially if Labour wins. The eventual destination is uncertain; but the direction of travel now looks settled.
脱欧之前，迷于幻想；脱欧之后，美梦破碎。人们可以从中吸取两个政治教训。首先，保守党已经不再可能去劝说那些在2019年支持他们的选民，让他们不要因为担心失去脱欧的优势而转向工党——因为这些优势是如此难以辨别。其次，无论谁赢得下一届选举，都会选择与欧盟建立更紧密的关系，而非更加疏远。这一过程可能比反脱欧人士们期待的要更长，而且认为欧盟也会自然而然地接受未来的这种变化本身就是一个错误。迄今为止，想到要更为友好地对待英国，欧盟和各国政府肯定感觉压力很大，尤其是如果工党获胜的话。终点目前仍难预料，但行进的方向看上去已然尘埃落定。
Forest，爱树的人，精神小花园持续耕耘中
Benjamin，MTI to be，初学翻译的翻译小学生
Cassie，准MTI，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋
Rain，蒙村小香菜
Yve，我的肩上是风
Yuqing，女，理想主义体验派，经济学人读者
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观点|评论|思考
本周感想
Pay，一个坚定远航的sailor
上对花轿嫁错郎
有人曾经这样描述英国脱欧：英国加入欧盟就好比白富美嫁给了高富帅，强强联姻，人人称羡。本该是一段幸福的婚后生活，但欧盟被许多穷亲戚投靠，帅小伙也逐日变成了油腻男，英国不光许多权利受到限制，还要拿出私房钱给各个加入欧盟的穷国家送红包。最后富家女终于受不了了，下好一番决心离婚脱欧。
英国脱欧之举，对于咱中国普通老百姓而言，最担心的莫过于自家留学生是否会受到影响。但事实上，英国脱欧为留学生留英工作创造了不可多得的机会，脱欧后英国势必会减少留英的欧盟国家劳动力，国内空出大量的工作岗位亟待填满。除此之外，英国重新恢复了停滞多年的PSW签证政策，这个政策让中国留学生在毕业后还能够获得两年的工作签证机会，并且面试同一个工作岗位时，欧盟国家的学生也不再享有原先的特权或优待，中国的留学生与欧盟国家的留学生能够处于同一起跑线上竞争。
英国于2020年12月31日正式宣布脱欧后，纵观英镑汇率跌宕起伏，偏向贬值态势清晰可见，英镑下跌对留学最直观的影响便是可以花更少的钱上学。但留学生们不要开心的太早，学费降低不意味着生活费也会随之减少。失去欧盟这个最大的贸易伙伴后，英国的物价将整体上涨，留学生的生活成本也相应地会大大增加。
此次离婚两败俱伤，输赢难料，也许英国和欧盟都不会是赢家，让我们拭目以待。
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愿景