投资大师论“宏观因素”

forcode：我去年就已经不再持有多少美国公司了，目前仅有一个Fb，也准备当做烟蒂股越涨越卖，而不是长期持有，除了我不喜欢扎克伯格，也是考虑到美股已经连续13年没有像样的大熊市了。美联储如果持续大幅度加息，以抑制通胀，美股怎么就不能像上世纪七八十年代那样持续熊十几年？

//达利欧举例了1929年消化泡沫用了两年，而90年代末的互联网科技泡沫则耗时一年，而且他提示道，市场通常会走向相反的极端，所以没有处于泡沫的极端并不意味着它们是安全的，也不意味着现在是做多的好时机。

按照我们的衡量标准，美国股票总体上看起来仍然被高估了。历史表明，一旦开始爆裂，泡沫往往会过度修正到下行，而不是在稳定在更 "正常 "的价格区间。

网友：我认为不会。那个年代美国没有竞争对手，如今有我们在，他们为了保持竞争力不会放任市场萧条不管的。

forcode：1981年美股跌回17年前1964年的水平，当时美国难道不希望股市上涨吗？不是不想，而是做不到。为什么？

巴菲特1999年在太阳谷的演讲，认为是3个原因：

1、高利率，越战泥潭让美国滥发钞票，导致布雷顿森林体系解体，美元不再锚定黄金，加上石油危机，导致恶性通胀+增长停滞，美联储没有选择，把利率越提越高；

2、利润下降，高利率意味着企业融资成本上涨，企业盈利能力自然下降；

3、由于通胀一直无法被压制，利率越提越高，企业利润越来越受影响，投资者对未来的预期也更加悲观。

利率、利润、预期这三大因素的打压下，当时标普500持续十几年没怎么涨，这种时候如果搞被动的指数基金投资，年化收益率未必理想……

无脑投资指数基金就想躺赢？赚钱哪有那么简单！真正大熊市来临的适合，遭遇的不是双杀，而是三杀，不仅当前利润下降，对未来的利润预期（因为折现率提高）也下降，而且给的估值倍数也要下降。

投资不研究宏观因素，简直就是扯淡！

经济本身有周期，投资不研究宏观，就好比穿衣服不看气候、季节和天气一样……

查理芒果有句很酷的话：我的剑传给能挥舞它的人（My sword I leave to him who can wear it）。读书就是与人交谈，读经典书籍，就是与历史上最聪明的人交谈。投资大师的智慧箴言录，值得反复品味，有时候那真是一语惊醒梦中人，听君一席话，胜读十年书。

“投资大师论”系列共有几十篇摘录，全部加话题标签“投资大师语录”，按类别整理，并且机器翻译成中文，发在本订阅号“forcode奇想录”，也方便我自己学习、反复品味。

正文内容先发英文原文，后面有机器翻译的中文（肯定存在某些翻译不准确的地方）。建议有一定英文功底的网友先读英文，理解会更准确。

MACRO MATTERS

“The lesson I have learned is that it isn’t reasonable to be agnostic about the big picture.” David Einhorn

"For the value investor who is traditionally involved mostly as a stock picker, I think today should pay more attention to the top down." Jean Marie Eviellard

"Macro-agnosticism has become mainstream. This development is dangerous and hubristic in our view." Frank Martin

“If you are a value investor and you invest whenever you find a stock which is selling for one-third less than your estimate of intrinsic value, and you say, I don’t care about the macro, nor what I call the temperature of the market, then you are acting as if the world is always the same and the desirability of making investments is always the same. But the world changes radically, and sometimes the investing world is highly hospitable (when the prices are depressed) and sometimes it is very hostile (when prices are elevated).” Howard Marks

"I used to completely ignore the macro environment, but now I pay attention and try to have a basic view that informs how we look at everything." Ricky Sandler

“Not paying attention to the macro side could be hazardous to your health.” Robert Rodriguez

“You cannot micro-manage your way out of macro problems.” Wilbur Ross

“What I’ve learned to do is to pay more attention to the macro. But I can’t completely fix it. I can’t completely get my head around the future unknowns in the world.” Mohnish Pabrai

"2008 made an indelible impression on me, and I think of my clients and I have adjusted the way that I look at things to try to better incorporate my world views into my overall security selection in portfolio construction, still very much a bottom-up stock picker, but just trying to be wiser about the process" Chuck Akre

“Where we do cast an eye to the macro is usually with respect to what can go wrong.” Matthew McLennan

“Let me tell you about the ones [value investors] who refused to fancy themselves macro-economists. Investors who turned a blind eye to credit – to monetary policy, to the Federal Reserve- didn’t notice the stupendous build-up of bad debt through 2007. They tended to own a lot of optically cheap financial stocks that got cheaper and cheaper until they weren’t there anymore.” Jim Grant

“I think it is unrealistic and maybe hubristic to say, ‘I don’t care about what is going on in the world. I know a cheap stock when I see one.’ If you don’t follow the pendulum and understand the cycle, then that implies that you always invest as much money as aggressively. That doesn’t make any sense to me. I have been around too long to think that a good investment is always equally good all the time regardless of the climate.” Howard Marks

"Everyone makes mistakes. A mistake in security selection involves that security. A mistaken macro bet engulfs the entire portfolio.” Jeff Gundlach

"Bottom-up value investors would not wish to bet the ranch on a macro economic view, but neither would they be wise to ignore the macro economy altogether." Seth Klarman

"For years I had believed that I didn't need to take a view on the market or the economy because I considered myself to be a ‘bottom up’ investor. Having my eyes open to the big picture doesn't mean abandoning stock picking, but it does mean managing the long-short exposure ratio more actively, worrying about what may be brewing in certain industries, and when appropriate, buying some just-in-case insurance for foreseeable macro risks even if they are hard to time." David Einhorn

"You know, for most of the time that I’ve managed Yale’s portfolio, we’ve tried to be relentlessly bottom-up and focused solely on identifying anomalies in the pricing of individual securities. And that’s worked out really well. I think with the advent of the financial crisis in 2008, 2009, that changed, because we had to be concerned about whether or not the banking system in countries around the world, particularly in the United States, was going to survive. We had to think about whether the eurozone would continue to be a cohesive whole. And so we’ve been forced into this uncomfortable position of needing to understand some of these macro questions that we could have previously ignored without peril." David Swenson

"Warren Buffet's vision of the world is not as narrow as some think. His actions speak volumes about his awareness of both the micro and the macro environments." Frank Martin

"The tour we've taken through the last century proves that market irrationality of an extreme kind periodically erupts--and compellingly suggests that investors wanting to do well had better learn how to deal with the next outbreak. What's needed is an antidote, and in my opinion that's quantification. If you quantify, you won't necessarily rise to brilliance, but neither will you sink into craziness. On a macro basis, quantification doesn't have to be complicated at all." Warren Buffett

"We are not macro investors. That said, we are not completely blind to the extremes of the world." Keith Trauner

“In our process, macro developments can, and often do, act as an off switch regarding specific investments, though never as an on switch. In other words, we’ll never buy a stock because of macro events, but we might decide to sell – or not to buy – based on macro events in a particular country.” Rajiv Jain

"You can have a much higher degree of confidence about the prospects for company performance than you can about the macro outlook. The type of trade in which you can get a big position and stay with it for years is therefore more likely to be company driven rather than macro driven. Having said that, though, the macro outlook is still very important. There are three things I like to see when I buy a stock: a favourable macro situation, a secular trend, and good company management." Martin Taylor

"Our focus used to be much more on the micro, which meant we focused on the company and didn’t look at the macro enough—and that’s something you have to take into account if you want to be a good investor. Certain times we got into trouble and made mistakes; I think there were macro issues that were really out of management’s control. But having said that, shame on us. We should have known that this would happen or would be an issue. We didn’t focus on it enough. And about five years ago we set up a macro asset and allocation group, which has been invaluable and made a huge difference in how we think." Henry Kravis

"Putting money to work in equities and credit today requires a thoughtful perspective on global events. Macro analysis is no longer just for macro traders." Dan Loeb

"Trying to understand the macro context at any given moment is vitally important in being able to successfully trade, protect and grow private capital for the long term. However, the quest for such understanding is often a thankless and inconclusive task." Paul Singer

"Value investors thought for a long time they could ignore the big picture, the macro-economic environment. We believe the use of debt becomes pervasive. So over time when we see countries or industries with too much debt, we pay a lot of attention to that. Debt may help economies, things may look cheap, companies maybe highly profitable. But we know it is artificial and the party will stop. A good example was in Japan in the late 1980’s." Charles De Vaulx 

"I rely on a macro perspective to identify opportunities and make better decisions, both in my investment activity and in leading my portfolio companies. I am always questioning, always calculating the implications of broader events." Sam Zell

“We strive to make sure our investments are not obviously in the path of a macro economic “freight train,” but otherwise, our approach is wholly focused on the businesses that comprise the portfolio, the people running those businesses, and the reinvestment opportunities and acumen at each.” Chuck Akre

“While we are not top-down investors, we believe macro factors are an important component of portfolio risk-control.” Jake Rosser

宏观问题

“我学到的教训是，对大局不可知论是不合理的。” 大卫·艾因霍恩

“对于传统上主要作为选股者参与的价值投资者，我认为今天应该更多地关注自上而下。” 让·玛丽·埃维拉德

“宏观不可知论已成为主流。在我们看来，这种发展是危险和狂妄的。” 弗兰克·马丁

“如果你是一个价值投资者，当你发现一只股票的售价比你估计的内在价值低三分之一时，你会说，我不关心宏观，也不关心我所说的市场，那么你的行为就好像世界总是一样的，投资的愿望总是一样的。但世界发生了翻天覆地的变化，有时投资界非常好客（当价格低迷时），有时却非常敌对（当价格上涨时）。” 霍华德·马克斯

“我以前完全忽略宏观环境，但现在我关注并尝试有一个基本的观点，告诉我们如何看待一切。” 瑞奇·桑德勒

“不注意宏观方面可能会危害您的投资健康。” 罗伯特·罗德里格斯

“你无法通过微观管理来解决宏观问题。” 威尔伯·罗斯

“我学会做的是更多地关注宏观。但我无法完全搞定它。我无法完全理解世界上未来的未知数。” 莫尼什·帕布雷

“2008 年给我留下了不可磨灭的印象，我想到了我的客户，我已经调整了看待事物的方式，试图更好地将我的世界观融入我在投资组合构建中的整体证券选择中，这仍然是一个自下而上的选股者，但只是想对这个过程更明智” Chuck Akre

“我们关注宏观的地方通常是关于可能出现的问题。” 马修麦克伦南

“让我告诉你那些拒绝把自己看成宏观经济学家的[价值投资者]。对信贷——货币政策、美联储——视而不见的投资者在 2007 年没有注意到坏账的惊人积累。他们往往持有大量貌似便宜的金融股票，这些股票变得越来越便宜，直到他们已经不在了。” 吉姆格兰特

“我认为说‘我不在乎世界上正在发生的事情’是不现实的，也许是傲慢的。当我看到一只便宜的股票时，我就知道了。如果你不跟随钟摆并理解周期，那么这意味着你总是积极地投资尽可能多的钱。这对我来说没有任何意义。我已经存在太久了，以至于认为无论气候如何，一项好的投资总是同样好的。” 霍华德·马克斯

“每个人都会犯错。证券选择中的错误涉及该证券。错误的宏观下注会吞噬整个投资组合。” 杰夫·冈拉克

“自下而上的价值投资者不希望将投资组合押在宏观经济观点上，但完全忽视宏观经济也不明智。” Seth Klarman

“多年来，我一直认为我不需要对市场或经济有看法，因为我认为自己是一个‘自下而上’的投资者。放眼大局并不意味着放弃选股，但这确实意味着更积极地管理多空头寸比率，担心某些行业可能正在酝酿，并在适当的时候为可预见的宏观风险购买一些以防万一的保险，即使它们很难把握时间。” 大卫·艾因霍恩

“你知道，在我管理耶鲁投资组合的大部分时间里，我们一直在努力坚持自下而上，只专注于识别个别证券定价中的异常情况。而且效果非常好。我认为2008 年、2009 年金融危机的到来，情况发生了变化，因为我们必须担心世界各国，特别是美国的银行系统是否能够生存。我们必须考虑是否欧元区将继续成为一个有凝聚力的整体。因此，我们被迫处于这种不舒服的境地，需要了解一些我们以前可以毫无危险地忽略的宏观问题。”大卫·斯文森

“沃伦·巴菲特对世界的看法并不像某些人想象的那么狭隘。他的行为充分说明了他对微观和宏观环境的认识。” 弗兰克·马丁

“我们在上个世纪进行的考察证明，极端类型的市场非理性会定期爆发——并且令人信服地表明，想要做得好的投资者最好学习如何应对下一次疫情。需要的是解毒剂，并且在我看来，这就是量化。量化了，不一定会大放异彩，但也不会陷入疯狂。宏观上，量化并不一定要复杂。” 沃伦·巴菲特

“我们不是宏观投资者。也就是说，我们并非对世界的极端情况完全视而不见。” 基思·特劳纳

“在我们的过程中，宏观发展可以而且经常会作为特定投资的开关，但从不会作为开关。换句话说，我们永远不会因为宏观事件而买入股票，但我们可能会根据特定国家的宏观事件决定卖出或不买入。” 拉吉夫耆那教

“与宏观前景相比，您对公司业绩前景的信心要高得多。因此，您可以获得大笔头寸并保持多年的交易类型更有可能由公司驱动“尽管如此，但宏观前景仍然非常重要。当我购买股票时，我希望看到三件事：有利的宏观形势、长期趋势和良好的公司管理。” 马丁·泰勒

“过去我们的重点更多地放在微观上，这意味着我们专注于公司，而对宏观的看法不够——如果你想成为一名优秀的投资者，就必须考虑到这一点。某些时候，我们遇到麻烦，犯了错误；我认为有些宏观问题确实超出了管理层的控制范围。但话说回来，我们感到羞耻。我们应该知道这会发生或会成为问题。我们没有专注于“够了。大约五年前，我们成立了一个宏观资产和配置小组，这非常宝贵，并且对我们的思维方式产生了巨大影响。” 亨利·克拉维斯

“今天将资金用于股票和信贷需要对全球事件有深思熟虑的看法。宏观分析不再只是宏观交易者的专利。” 丹·勒布

“试图在任何特定时刻了解宏观背景对于能够成功交易、保护和长期发展私人资本至关重要。然而，寻求这种理解往往是一项吃力不讨好的任务。” 保罗辛格

“长期以来，价值投资者认为他们可以忽略宏观经济环境。我们认为债务的使用变得普遍。因此，随着时间的推移，当我们看到债务过多的国家或行业时，我们会非常关注债务可能有助于经济，事情可能看起来很便宜，公司可能利润丰厚。但我们知道这是人为的，派对会停止。一个很好的例子是 1980 年代后期的日本。查尔斯·德沃克斯

“我依靠宏观视角来发现机会并做出更好的决策，无论是在我的投资活动中还是在领导我的投资组合公司时。我总是在质疑，总是在计算更广泛事件的影响。” 山姆·泽尔

“我们努力确保我们的投资不会明显走在宏观经济“货运列车”的道路上，但除此之外，我们的方法完全专注于构成投资组合的业务、经营这些业务的人员以及再投资机会和各有千秋。” 查克·阿克雷

“虽然我们不是自上而下的投资者，但我们认为宏观因素是投资组合风险控制的重要组成部分。” 杰克罗瑟

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forcode：我以前有一个观点：投资持续盈利的门槛很高、天花板也很高，具备很强的规模效应；如果你具备持续盈利能力，能够将10万变成100万，那么，你也就具备了将100万持续盈利变成1000万、再变成一个亿的能力，因为从10万变成100万与从100万变成1000万、从1000万变成1亿，你所做的工作内容、所需要的能力没有实质性的差异，这就是投资这个行当的魅力所在。所以，我一直相信，每个人都应该在一生当中花时间提高自己的投资理财的能力、而且越早越好，在你刚进入社会只有几万块钱积蓄的时候，年均10%的投资回报不过几千块钱，不能解决什么问题，但随着你年龄与财富的增长，当你有几十万、几百万的时候，年均10%的投资回报是几万块钱、几十万块钱，投资的收益就能够解决问题了。对于多数人而言，投资理财的能力可以让你的资产保值增值，这种能力是可以通过学习提高的……

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本文首发订阅号：forcode奇想录

未来新技术与新趋势的种种可能……