欣欣向荣的中东或将面临八方风雨 | 经济学人

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2023-09-17 01:09

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Summer，女，QE在职，梦想能仗走天涯翻译/音乐/健康

干货分享 | 如何2.5折官网订阅经济学人？

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Leaders | Cash v chaos

社论 | 金钱与混乱

英文部分选自经济学人2023909社论板块

Leaders | Cash v chaos

社论 | 金钱与混乱

The new Middle East has more money and less mayhem. For now

新形势下的中东国富民安，但这只是暂时的。

Economies are booming and wars are fading. But climate change is looming

各经济体欣欣向荣，战争冲突逐趋于平缓，但气候变化的警钟已经敲响。

If you thought the Middle East was stagnant, think again. The Gulf economies are among the richest and most vibrant on the planet, helped by a Brent crude oil price that rose back to over $90 per barrel this week. A $3.5trn fossil-fuel bonanza is being spent on everything from home-grown artificial intelligence models and shiny new cities in the desert, to filling the coffers of giant sovereign-wealth funds that roam the world’s capital markets looking for deals.

如果你还以为中东停滞不前，那你得重新认识中东。海湾地区目前是全球最富裕、经济最有活力的地区之一，随着本周布伦特原油价格回升并突破90美元/桶，这些国家的经济将继续走强。靠着卖石油，一项金额高达3.5万亿美元的投资会用于支持本土人工智能模型、建设沙漠新城，同时也让中东主权财富基金更加充裕，在全球资本市场中寻找投资机会。

注释：

主权财富基金：一国政府通过特定税收与预算分配、可再生自然资源收入和国际收支盈余等方式积累形成，由政府控制与支配，通常以外币形式持有的公共财富。它是一种全新的专业化、市场化的进取性投资基金，除进行股票、债券、房地产等风险投资外，已逐步扩展到私人股权投资、商品期货、对冲基金等非传统类投资领域。

As the cash flows in, the chaos shows signs of receding, thanks to the biggest burst of diplomacy for decades. Saudi Arabia and Iran have negotiated detente in a rivalry that has lasted since the Iranian revolution in 1979. Civil wars in Syria and Yemen are killing fewer people, as their sponsors seek de-escalation. Following the Abraham accords between Israel and some Arab governments, Saudi Arabia is considering recognising the Jewish state, 75 years after its creation. The region’s global clout is rising—four countries are about to join the brics club of non-aligned powers that want a less Western-dominated world.

随着资金流入，该地区外交进入了几十年来最为活跃的时期，动荡局面得以缓和。1979年伊朗革命以来，沙特和伊朗较量了几十年，现在两国已通过谈判稳住了局面。由于战争的幕后指使者不想事态升级，叙利亚内战与也门内战的死亡人数也有所下降。在以色列和部分阿拉伯国家签署《亚伯拉罕协议》后，沙特正在考虑在以色列建国75年之后承认这个犹太教国家。海湾地区在全球的影响力也在不断增强，有四个国家将要加入金砖国家合作机制（BRICS），不站队，不结盟，共建一个不被西方控制的世界。

注释：

《亚伯拉罕协议》是以色列、阿拉伯联合酋长国和美国于2020年8月13日达成的联合声明。该声明标志着阿拉伯世界与以色列自约以和约签订以来再次正常化双边关系。

As our Briefing explains, these shifts begin a new chapter in the Middle Eastmarked by fresh opportunities and new dangers. The region’s leaders are testing ideas that have caught on in much of the world, including embracing autocratic pragmatism as a substitute for democracy, and multipolar diplomacy instead of the post-1945 American-led order. The Middle East is also a place where threats that will menace the world in the 2030s may play out early, including nuclear proliferation, extreme weather and even greater inequality, as weak countries fall further behind.

正如本刊的简报板块所述，以上种种转变翻开了中东局势的新篇章，新机遇与新风险并存。该地区的领导人正在尝试践行全球大部分地区已经接受的观点，例如吹捧专制实用主义，将它替代民主主义，用多极外交代替二战后形成的由美国主导的国际秩序。全球在21世纪30年代将要面临的诸多风险也可能最早在中东这片土地上显现，包括核扩散、极端天气以及弱国愈弱导致的不平等性加剧。

Many occupants of the White House have left office wishing they could forget all about the Middle East. But whether you run a superpower or a small business, it matters as much as ever. Although it has only 6% of the world’s people, it has a chokehold on the global economy. As the lowest-cost oil producer, its share of crude exports is 46% and rising. Its share of exports of liquefied natural gas, in great demand since Russia’s pipelines to Europe shut down, is 30% and going up, too. Thanks to its location, 30% of all container trade and 16% of air cargo passes through the region. With $3trn of assets, its sovereign-wealth funds are among the world’s largest. Its wars and disorder often spill across borders; its refugees affect politics as far away as Europe.

多任美国总统在离职时都希望自己能彻底避开中东，但不论你是大国领导人还是小企业主，中东至始至终都非常重要。尽管这一地区人口只占全球6%，但它却占有至关重要的全球经济地位。作为成本最低的石油生产商，中东的原油出口份额占全球46%，这一比例未来还将继续增长。自从俄罗斯关闭向欧洲输送天然气的管道，中东的液化天然气出口份额占全球30%，并将不断攀升。由于其特殊的地理位置，全球30%的集装箱贸易与16%的航运货物均需经过该地区。中东的主权财富基金总资产规模约为3万亿美元，居全球前列。该地区的战争与混乱影响深远，中东难民甚至能影响到远在欧洲的政治局势。

The past two decades have been miserable in the Middle East. Democratic projects ended in failure and bloodshed, in Iraq after the American-led invasion of 2003 and in several countries after the Arab spring in 2011. Islamic State sought to kill its way to creating a caliphate, while in Syria Bashar al-Assad doused his own people in chlorine and nerve agents.

过去二十年，中东一直处在水深火热之中。无论是2003年遭受美国入侵后的伊拉克，还是在2011年经历阿拉伯之春的几个国家，民主进程皆以失败和流血告终。伊斯兰国试图杀出一条血路，建立哈里发政权，而在叙利亚，巴沙尔·阿萨德（Bashar al-Assad）则用氯气和神经毒剂屠杀自己的人民。

注释：

哈里发：本为阿拉伯帝国最高的统治者称号，同时兼有统治所有逊尼派穆斯林的精神领袖的意味，故又可以同时具有类似天主教的教宗的作用，是政教合一的领袖。

Yet now, as the fighting ebbs, three big changes are visible. First, the region is having to take more responsibility for its own security, as America’s appetite to intervene militarily has evaporated. Alongside this, trade patterns have become multipolar: the imf reckons 26% of Middle Eastern goods exports go to China and India, almost double the level in 2000 and roughly twice the share headed for America and Europe. Recently, this geopolitical realignment has led to a desire to de-escalate conflicts.

而现在，随着战火逐渐平息，该地区呈现出三个明显变化。首先，鉴于美国已经不再愿意在该地区进行军事干预，中东国家必须承担更多责任来保护自身安全。与此同时，贸易模式也变得多极化：国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，26% 的中东商品出口到了中国和印度，相较2000 年时几乎翻一番，数量大约是出口到美国和欧洲的两倍。最近，这种地缘政治的调整让人们产生了缓和冲突的愿望。

Second, the energy transition creates an urgent need to escape the familiar pattern of oil booms and busts. Instead there is a powerful incentive for the Gulf to lift fossil-fuel production in the next decade before demand dwindles permanently, and spend the proceeds on diversifying local economies.

其次，能源转型使得该地区迫切想要跳出已经习惯的石油盛衰周期。然而，这些国家提升化石能源产量的意愿非常强烈，想要在未来十年石油需求永久性降低之前（卖出更多的资源），把收益用以当地经济的多元化发展。

The final shift is a weariness in public opinion. Political experiments, whether democratic or Islamist, are tarnished. Instead, people across the Middle East yearn for economic opportunity. Forget Canada or Sweden: polls show the country young Arabs admire most is the uae, with its stability and thriving economy under iron-fisted dynastic rule. At the same time, less Western involvement in security and trade also means less pressure for human rights or democracy.

最后是公众的厌倦。无论是民主还是伊斯兰专政，这些政治实验都不再受到追捧。与之相对，整个中东地区的人民都渴望经济机遇。不要以为中东人民都羡慕加拿大或瑞典了：民意调查显示，如今阿拉伯年轻人最崇拜的国家是阿拉伯联合酋长国，因为在铁腕王朝的统治下，它实现了社会稳定与经济繁荣。与此同时，西方减少对安全和贸易的介入也意味着人权或民主方面的压力也随之减少。

Some of the region’s changes invite ridicule—think of a vanity project like neom, a gaudy new city being built for an estimated $500bn by Muhammad bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler. But other changes are durable and profound.More women are working in the Gulf. Israeli tourists are thronging to Dubai. Across the region, the non-oil economy is growing at a healthy annual rate of 4% and cross-border multinational investment is rising. It is possible to imagine how a virtuous cycle of stability and peace might lead to more investment and trade that raises living standards and broadens prosperity, reversing a long-lasting spiral of failure in a part of the world with some 500m people.

该地区的某些变化也遭到嘲讽，比如“Neom新城”这样的面子工程。沙特阿拉伯的实际统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（Muhammad bin Salman）预计将砸进约5000亿美元打造这样一座华而不实的新城。不过，其他变化则持久而影响深远：海湾地区妇女就业人数呈上升趋势；前往迪拜旅游的以色列游客蜂拥而至；整个地区，非石油经济正以每年4%的增速健康发展，跨境跨国投资也在增长。可以设想，对于这个拥有5亿人口的地区而言，和平稳定的良性循环将吸引更多投资和贸易，从而提高人民生活水平，推动繁荣昌盛，扭转长久以来的恶性循环。

Yet to achieve that, the Middle East will have to overcome some big problems. Many of these are familiar. The region’s more enlightened autocrats argue that they face a kind of “performance accountability” to improve the lot of their populations. But regimes with absolute rule tend towards decay. Other dangers are new—or, rather, looming more menacingly than ever. Now that Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear-armed state, proliferation is a grave worry.Climate change means that one of the world’s hottest, driest places faces even more extreme weather. Only some countries can afford the investments, such as redesigned cities and desalination projects, that they need to remain habitable.

不过，要实现这一目标，中东地区必须解决一些重大问题，其中很多都是老问题。该地区一些较为开明的独裁者们称，他们面临着“绩效问责制”的考验，要担起改善人民生活的重任。不过，实行绝对统治的政权往往最终会走向衰败。除了老问题还有新风险，或者说，这些危险比以往任何时候都更突出。由于伊朗也即将成为一个拥有核武器的国家，核扩散问题引发严重担忧。而作为世界上气温最高、气候最干燥的地区之一，气候变化意味着这里将面临更加严峻的极端天气。然而，该地区只有少数国家能够负担得起保持宜居性的投资支出，比如对城市进行重新设计和开展海水淡化工程。

80:20 rule

二八定律

Most starkly, the new Middle East is more lopsided than in recent memory. The success stories, the Gulf and Israel, account for only 14% of the population but 60% of gdp, 73% of goods exports and 75% of inward multinational investment. From Israel and the West Bank to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, modern economies border places trapped in despair. Lebanon is mired in financial crisis; Egypt could be heading the same way. The new Middle East’s winners embody a transactional mindset that may yet make them richer. Its losers are a reminder that in a world with fewer rules and principles, no one is coming to the rescue. As you fill up your car or wait for your air-freighted parcel, remember they depend on a region that is an economic and political laboratory—and hope the experiment does not blow up.

最明显的是，如今中东经济发展不均衡的情况，比人们记忆中的要严重得多。取得经济成功的海湾国家和以色列，总人口只占该地区的14%，但GDP却占到60%，商品出口占73%，占境内国际投资的75%。从以色列和约旦河西岸，再到沙特阿拉伯和也门，经济发达的现代国家毗邻着那些在绝望中挣扎的国家。黎巴嫩深陷金融危机；埃及也可能会步其后尘。新中东的赢家们拥有的交易型思维方式可能会让他们变得更富有。而失败者则提醒人们，在一个规则和原则越来越稀少的世界里，没有救世主。当你给汽车加油或等待空运包裹时，请记住这些服务都要依赖于中东地区，一个经济学和政治学的实验室——希望这个实验不要搞砸了。

翻译组：

Collin，男，崇拜科比的一枚小翻译

Shulin，女，热咖啡+保温杯，慢慢来er
Cassie，一心想吃口译面，早日坐进小黑屋

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Very，男，电气民工，经济学人资浅爱好者

Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译

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