法律翻译 | 美国总统可以在狱中履职吗？我们可能会亲眼见证

译者 |潘研 清华大学 LL.B.

一审 |李梓源 英国布里斯托大学 LL.M.

二审 |田雅琦 青岛大学本科

编辑 |于杰 上海对外经贸大学本科

责编 |王有蓉 中国政法大学硕士

Can a President Serve from Prison? We Might Find Out

美国总统可以在狱中履职吗？我们可能会亲眼见证

作者：Michael C. Dorf

网址：https://verdict.justia.com/2023/04/12/can-a-president-serve-from-prison-we-might-find-out

Astoundingly and despite—indeed perhaps in part because of—his recent indictment on charges of felony falsification of business records, Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President in 2024. Much could change between now and the primaries next year, but the indictment, the potential for indictments on three other sets of charges, and Trump’s grip on his party’s base all point to the possibility that he could be elected President while in prison.

令人惊讶的是，尽管唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）最近因伪造商业记录的重罪而被起诉，他仍是2024年总统选举中获得共和党提名的最热门人选，而遭到起诉或许是这一结果的部分原因。尽管从现在到明年的初选，中间可能会有很多变化，但这次起诉、对其他三组指控的潜在起诉（见后文），以及特朗普对共和党基本盘的控制，都表明他可能在狱中当选总统。

What happens then? As I explain below, the best reading of the Constitution would render him ineligible to serve as President while in prison but in any plausible scenario in which Trump returns to the Oval Office in 2025, the only actors authorized to declare him ineligible would be extremely unlikely to do so. Thus, we face the genuine possibility that Trump would serve some or all of a presidential term while in prison.

如果这一可能成为现实，将会发生什么？如下所述，对《美国宪法》的最有力解读会使他在狱中没有资格担任总统。但是，在特朗普于2025年重返白宫的所有可能情况中，唯一有权宣布他没有资格就任总统的机关几乎不可能如此宣布。因此，特朗普真的可能在狱中度过部分或全部的总统任期。

(图片源自网络）

The Current and Likely Charges

当前及可能的指控

All 34 counts of the New York County indictment against Trump arise out of his intentional mischaracterization of hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels, Karen McDougal, and doorman Dino Sajudin. Each count asserts a violation of a New York statute that defines a class E felony. Another provision of New York law sets the maximum term of imprisonment for such crimes at four years. With Trump’s trial scheduled to start sometime next year, a conviction on at least two counts followed by consecutive sentences would result in his imprisonment well beyond the end of the next presidential term in 2029.

曼哈顿对特朗普的起诉书中的34项指控均基于他故意错误描述支付给斯托米·丹尼尔斯（Stormy Daniels）、凯伦·麦克道格（Karen McDougal）和门卫迪诺·萨茹丁（Dino Sajudin）的封口费。每项指控都声称他违反了一项纽约法规中的E级重罪。纽约法律的另一项条款规定，此类罪行的最高刑期为四年。由于特朗普的庭审定于明年某时开庭，如果至少有两项指控成立而导致特朗普被处以连续执行的判决，那么他的服刑结束的时间将远远超过下届总统任期于2029年结束之时。

However, that’s extraordinarily unlikely. Given that each of the counts in the indictment arises out of a common scheme, the judge would likely impose concurrent sentences. Moreover, even conviction on all counts probably would not result in imprisonment at all. A prison sentence for a first-time offender would be unusual for a nonviolent class E (the lowest level) felony. Accordingly, although a New York felony conviction would be a stain on Trump’s (already highly stained) character, it would not likely lead to his serving substantial prison time.

然而，这一情况几乎不可能发生。因为起诉书中的每一项指控都基于连续犯（common scheme）的犯罪事实，法官很有可能判处同期执行的刑期。此外，即使所有指控成立，特朗普也可能根本不必服刑。对一个非暴力的E级（最低级别）重罪的初犯者判处徒刑是很罕见的。因此，尽管被判定犯有纽约州重罪将成为特朗普（已经布满污点的）人格上的一个污点，但它不太可能导致他长期服刑。

(图片源自网络）

Trump faces greater legal peril from the three other active criminal investigations. First, a grand jury in Fulton County, Georgia, could (and likely soon will) indict him for his efforts to pressure state officials to overturn the 2020 election result—most notoriously when Trump asked Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” enough votes to change the outcome. Second, special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation of Trump’s role in the broader scheme to overturn the election and the January 6 insurrection could lead to an indictment—perhaps soon as well, given the timing pressure from both the somewhat overlapping Georgia case and the approaching election. Third, Smith’s separate investigation of Trump’s seemingly intentional removal and initial refusal to return classified documents could also result in an indictment.

特朗普所面临的更大的法律风险来自其他三项正在进行的刑事调查。首先，佐治亚州富尔顿县的一个大陪审团可（并且可能很快就会）起诉他，因为他向该州政府官员施压以推翻2020年的选举结果。其中，特朗普要求州务卿布拉德·拉芬斯佩格（Brad Raffensperger）“找到”足够的选票来改变选举结果的行为最为臭名昭著。其次，特别检察官杰克·史密斯（Jack Smith）针对特朗普所进行的调查可能会导致起诉，该调查关注他在推翻选举的更大阴谋和2021年1月6日的叛乱中扮演的角色。这一起诉或许也会很快，因为乔治亚州相互交叉的两期案件和即将到来的选举都受到时间上的压力。再次，史密斯对特朗普单独调查也可能导致起诉，该调查针对特朗普疑似有意删除与最初拒绝归还机密文件的行为。

We do not yet know precisely what crimes will form the basis for indictments, if any, in the Georgia or two federal cases. Depending on the charges, the timing, and the sentence, there is at least some chance that Trump could be in prison on Inauguration Day: January 20, 2025. If he has become President again, what happens then?

假设上述调查导致起诉，我们尚不清楚哪些罪名将成为这些起诉的根据。根据指控、时间和判处的刑期，特朗普在他的就职日（2025年1月20日）仍处于狱中的情况至少是可能的。如果他已经再次成为总统，那会发生什么？

(图片源自网络）

Constitutional Grounds for Ineligibility

无资格担任总统的宪法依据

Article II of the Constitution sets out the qualifications for the presidency. One must be “a natural born citizen,” at least 35 years old, and a U.S. resident for at least 14 years. In Powell v. McCormack, the Supreme Court ruled that the House of Representatives could not add qualifications for its members beyond those listed in Article I. The same logic would appear to apply to qualifications for the presidency. Thus, even though one would hope that the voters would consider “not being a felon still under sentence” a de facto requirement for the presidency, as a formal matter, it is not.

《美国宪法》第二条规定了担任总统所需具备的资格：必须是“天生的公民”，至少35岁，并且在美国居住至少14年。最高法院在鲍威尔诉麦科马克案（Powell v. McCormack）中判决称，众议院不能在《美国宪法》第一条所列的资格限制条件之外增设其他条件。同样的逻辑似乎也适用于对总统资格的规定。因此，尽管人们希望选民会认为“不是仍在服刑的重罪犯”是对总统职位的实质要求，但严格来说并不存在此等限制。

Nonetheless, three additional constitutional provisions may be relevant. First, at least some of the charges Trump faces could be deemed “high crimes and misdemeanors” within the meaning of Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution, thus warranting impeachment by the House and removal by the Senate. Second, if Trump is actually in prison on Inauguration Day, that fact could render him “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office” within the meaning of the Twenty-fifth Amendment. Third, depending on the nature and disposition of the charges brought by Smith, Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment could render Trump ineligible to hold any federal office, including the presidency, in virtue of his “having previously taken an oath . . . to support the Constitution” but then having “engaged in insurrection or rebellion.”

尽管如此，还有三项宪法规定可能与总统资格相关。首先，特朗普面临的至少一些指控可以被视为宪法第二条第四款意义上的“严重罪行和轻罪”。因此，参议院可以在众议院弹劾特朗普后将其罢免。其次，如果特朗普在就职日确实在监狱里，这一事实可能构成第二十五修正案的意义上的“不能够履行其职务的权力和责任”。第三，根据史密斯指控的性质及法院判决结果，第十四修正案第三条可以使特朗普没有资格担任任何联邦职务，包括总统职位，因为他“先前曾宣誓......维护合众国宪法”，但后来“对合众国作乱或反叛”。

(图片源自网络）

Yet each of these paths to disqualifying a felonious Trump faces substantial obstacles. Removal is not self-executing under either the impeachment clause of Article II or the Twenty-fifth Amendment. In any realistic scenario in which Trump becomes President again, at least a third (and most likely a much larger fraction) of the senators will be Republicans. As we saw the first two times Trump was impeached, regardless of the evidence, enough Republican senators will vote to acquit him to ensure that he remains in office. Meanwhile, even to initiate Trump’s removal via the Twenty-fifth Amendment requires cooperation of his Vice President and a majority of his own Cabinet. Given Trump’s transactional orientation and instinct for self-preservation, he would surely extract a promise of fealty from his running mate and any Cabinet nominees as the price of their positions.

然而，这些取消重罪犯特朗普总统资格的途径都面临着巨大障碍。根据第二条的弹劾条款或第二十五修正案，总统的罢免并非自动执行的。在特朗普再次成为总统的任何可能情景中，至少有三分之一（很可能更多）的参议员将是共和党人。正如我们在特朗普前两次被弹劾时看到的那样，无论证据如何，足够多的共和党参议员将投票支持特朗普，以确保他继续任职。同时，即使是通过第二十五修正案启动对特朗普的罢免，也需要他的副总统和他自己的内阁大多数成员的合作。鉴于特朗普有交易取向的思维模式和自我保护的本能，他肯定会要求他的竞选伙伴和任何内阁提名人承诺对其效忠，作为给予他们职位的条件。

Disqualification from office for rebellion or insurrection under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is likewise not a self-executing provision but it does not require the acquiescence of Trump-allied elected officials to come into play. The judiciary makes the relevant findings. A conviction on charges of insurrection (or its equivalent) could entail automatic ineligibility for Trump.

第十四修正案第三条规定的“因对合众国作乱或反叛”而取消任职资格同样不是一个自动执行的条款，但它不需要效忠特朗普的民选官员的默许就能发挥作用。司法部门会做出相关认定。以反叛（或同等罪名）对特朗普定罪可能会导致其自动失去任职资格。

(美国宪法第十四修正案第三条）

The Pardon Loophole?

赦免的漏洞？

Yet Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment is no magic bullet. If Trump becomes President again, he might try to pardon himself. In the 1871 case of United States v. Klein, the Supreme Court ruled that someone who had received a presidential pardon could not be deemed disloyal in virtue of his having participated on the Confederate side of the Civil War. The case involved the disposition of property rather than eligibility for office under the Fourteenth Amendment, but it nonetheless suggests that a pardon could be effective as a means of removing the taint of insurrection.

然而，第十四修正案第三条也并非万能。如果特朗普再次成为总统，他可能会试图赦免自己。在1871年的美国诉克莱因案（United States v. Klein）中，最高法院裁定，获得总统赦免的人不能因为参加过内战的南军一方而被视为不忠（disloyal）。该案涉及财产处置而非第十四修正案规定的任职资格，但它仍然表明，赦免可以作为消除反叛污点的一种有效手段。

Can a President pardon himself? As I noted in a 2017 column, although the Constitution is probably best read to foreclose self-pardons, there is sufficient doubt about the matter that Trump might attempt it. Moreover, a putative prohibition on self-pardons would be relatively simple to evade with support from a pliant Congress under Republican control. Trump could resign, leaving the office of the presidency vacant. His Vice President—let’s call her Marjorie—would then become President. Marjorie would then pardon Trump and also name him as her Vice President, which Congress would confirm. At that point, Marjorie would resign the presidency, Trump would again become President, he would nominate Marjorie as his Vice President, and Congress would confirm that choice.

总统可以赦免自己吗？正如我在2017年的一篇专栏中指出的那样，尽管对宪法的最佳解释排除了自我赦免的可能性，但对于特朗普是否会试图这样做仍存有很大疑问。此外，在共和党控制下的顺从的国会的支持下，逃避对自我赦免的推定性禁止将相对容易。特朗普可以辞职，让总统职位空缺。他的副总统——以马乔里（Marjorie）代称——就将成为总统。然后，马乔里将赦免特朗普，并任命他为她的副总统，而国会将对此进行确认。此时，马乔里将辞去总统职务，特朗普将再次成为总统，他将提名马乔里为他的副总统，而国会将确认这一选择。

To be sure, the musical-chairs pardon ploy will not work if Trump’s conviction for insurrection precedes the election. At that point, he (or to be more precise, electors pledged to him) could be kept off of the ballot. However, given state administration of elections, he might stay on the ballot in enough states that he needs to win to prevail in the Electoral College. Thus, even a conviction for insurrection before the election might not suffice to prevent Trump from taking office. And if he were to become President, at that point, he could wipe out his prison sentence with either a self-pardon or a pardon by his pliant Vice President and the musical-chairs plot outlined above.

可以肯定的是，如果特朗普在选举前被判定犯有叛乱罪（insurrection），那么这种过家家式的赦免伎俩将不起作用。届时，他（或者更准确地说，承诺支持他的选举团成员）可能被排除在投票范围外。然而，考虑到各州的选举管理，他可能在足够多的州内仍可被选举，从而满足在选举团中获胜的要求。因此，即使特朗普在选举前被判犯有叛乱罪，也可能不足以阻止他上任。如果他成为总统，到那时，他可以通过自我赦免的方式或通过由对他惟命是从的副总统进行赦免的过家家式阴谋来消除他的刑期。

(图片源自网络）

Whatever its other limits, however, the pardon power applies only to federal crimes. If, on January 20, 2025, Trump is in state prison (much more likely in Georgia than in New York) but also due to be inaugurated, neither he nor his Vice President could pardon and thus release him. Yes, he would be subject to removal via either impeachment or the Twenty-fifth Amendment but, as noted above, Congress and his Cabinet would be unlikely to invoke those processes.

然而，无论是否有其他限制，赦免权只适用于联邦犯罪。如果在2025年1月20日，特朗普被关在州监狱（在佐治亚州比在纽约更有可能），但同时应当出席就职典礼，他和他的副总统都不能赦免并因此释放他。是的，他将通过弹劾或第二十五修正案被免职，但如上所述，国会和特朗普的内阁不太可能启动这些程序。

Hence, crazy as it sounds, there does seem to be some realistic chance that Trump could be President while serving a prison sentence in Georgia.

因此，虽然听起来很疯狂，但确实存在这么一种现实的可能，即特朗普可以在佐治亚州服刑的期间成为总统。