1

Business | Ready for lift-off

商业 | 准备起飞

英文部分选自经济学人20230819期商业板块

Business | Ready for lift-off

商业 | 准备起飞

Flying taxis could soon be a booming business

空中“飞的”要起飞了

Electric aircraft are well-suited to short journeys

电动飞机非常适合短途旅行

Paris has long been at the heart of the history of flight. It is where the Montgolfier brothers ascended in the first hot-air balloon in 1783, and where Charles Lindbergh completed the first solo transatlantic aeroplane journey in 1927. Next year, if all goes to plan, Paris will be the site of another industry first when Volocopter, a German maker of electric aircraft, launches a flying-taxi service during the Olympic Games. At the Paris Airshow in June the company, and some of its rivals, paraded a new generation of battery-powered flying machines designed for urban transport.

翻开一部航空史，巴黎注定是绕不开的地名。1783年，巴黎见证了蒙戈尔菲尔（Montgolfier）兄弟完成首次热气球载人试飞；1927年，同样是在巴黎，查尔斯·林德伯格（Charles Lindbergh）完成了史上首次单人横跨大西洋飞行。如果一切顺利，明年巴黎将见证又一个第一次：德国电动飞机制造商Volocopter将在巴黎奥运会期间推出空中出租车服务。在今年6月举办的巴黎航展上，Volocopter及其他同类公司展示了一批专为城市交通设计的新一代电池动力飞行器。

The electrification of aviation has often been written off as a pipe dream, with batteries presumed too heavy a substitute for hydrocarbon fuel in an airborne vehicle. For longer journeys, such as Charles Lindbergh’s across the Atlantic, that may well be true. Yet upstarts like Volocopter are betting that electrification can unlock a boom in demand for clean and quick aerial journeys over shorter distances.

航空电气化曾是一个不切实际的幻想，因为人们认为用电池太重了，难以替代碳氢燃料为空中交通工具提供动力。对像查尔斯·林德伯格横跨大西洋的长途旅行来说，确实如此。然而，像Volocopter这样的新兴公司正在押宝电气化技术，他们相信该技术将导致人们对清洁、快速的短途空中旅行需求的激增。

The main form of flying taxi under development, called an electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, looks somewhat like a super-sized drone, carrying between one and four passengers, plus a pilot. Powered by batteries, they are both quiet enough to quell complaints in crowded cities, and fast: capable of up to 300kph, enough to comfortably outpace a car, especially one stuck in traffic. Indeed, optimists hope the absence of traffic in the sky will also make eVTOLs well-suited to autonomous operation. They could prove handy for transporting goods, too.

当前正在研发的空中出租车主要为电动垂直起降（eVTOL）飞行器，其外形有点像一个超大尺寸的无人机，可以搭载一名飞行员加一至四名乘客。这些飞行器由电池供电，不仅足够安静，在拥挤城市中也不会遭致噪音投诉，而且速度极快，最高时速可达300公里，远远把汽车甩在后面（更别提困在交通拥堵中的车辆了）。实际上，对此行业持乐观态度的人士更是大胆展望，空中目前还是一片净土，非常适合eVTOL自动驾驶。此外，飞行器还可能在货物运输方面发挥作用。

That vision has inspired giddy predictions. Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, reckons global spending on eVTOLs could hit $1trn by 2040. Volocopter is not the only player staking out the terrain. According to the Vertical Flight Society, a non-profit, more than 400 contenders have developed eVTOL designs. Joby, a Silicon Valley startup, has already raised $2bn from investors. Archer, another, hopes to have “hundreds or thousands” of its craft flying by the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.

这一愿景引发了激动人心的预测。投行摩根士丹利认为，到2040年，全球对eVTOL飞行器的投入可能会达到1万亿美元。除了Volocopter，还有其他企业也正踏足这个领域。根据非营利性组织垂直飞行协会的数据，已有400多家公司在推进eVTOL飞行器的设计。硅谷初创公司Joby已从投资者手中筹集了20亿美元，另一家公司Archer则希望在2028年洛杉矶奥运会前能让其“数百或数千架”飞行器投入使用。

Despite the enthusiasm, challenges remain. One is technical certification, which is turning out to be a lengthy process as aviation regulators grapple with an entirely new form of aircraft. Some manufacturers, such as Volocopter and EHang, a Chinese firm, are close to having machines in service. In April Volocopter opened an assembly plant in Germany. But others are further off. Late last year Joby was forced to push back its launch by a year to 2025 thanks to, among other things, regulatory delays. Many have even longer to go.

尽管各公司研发eVTOL的热情高涨，但挑战与机遇并存。挑战之一便是技术认证，航空监管机构要为这种全新的飞行器形式制定认证标准，这必然耗时漫长。像Volocopter和中国公司亿航智能（EHang）等制造商的飞行器即将投入使用。今年4月，Volocopter在德国设立了一个装配工厂。但其他一些制造商进展则较为缓慢。去年底，由于监管审批延迟等情况，Joby不得不将商业运营推迟一年至2025年。而许多其他制造商则是有更长的路要走。

The bigger question is whether the business of flying taxis will be viable. eVTOLs currently range in price from $1m to $4m. Although their cost may come down as the industry develops, they are likely to remain expensive pieces of machinery. Brian Yutko of Wisk, a maker backed by Boeing, says that flying-taxi rides will be “accessible to the masses”. Joby promises that its fares will be comparable to catching a taxi. Yet some studies suggest the cost could end up as high as $7 per km, many times a regular taxi fare. Even without a pilot, flying taxis may remain a convenience affordable only to a lucky few.

更大的挑战是空中出租车这一商业模式是否具有可行性。目前，eVTOL飞行器价格从100万美元到400万美元不等。尽管随着产业发展，成本会有所下降，但它很可能仍非常昂贵。波音子公司飞行器制造商Wisk的首席执行官布莱恩·尤特科（Brian Yutko）称，空中出租车“将成为面向大众的交通工具”。Joby则承诺未来乘坐空中出租车的价格会和坐普通出租车的价格差不多。但一些研究表明，空中出租车成本可能会高达每公里7美元，是普通出租车的好几倍。即使不需要飞行员，空中出租车也可能只是少数有钱的幸运儿负担得起的便利出行方式。

An alternative opportunity for electrification lies with small fixed-wing planes designed to transport a few dozen passengers over distances of a few hundred kilometres—for instance, between nearby cities. Heart Aerospace, a Swedish firm, plans to have a 30-seater plane with an all-electric range of 200km in the air by 2028. In September last year Eviation, an Israeli company, successfully tested a nine-seater electric plane with a range of 400km.

除了空中出租车，电气化还可用于小型固定翼飞机，该机型专门用来在几百公里内（如相邻城市之间）运输几十名乘客。瑞典企业Heart Aerospace计划在2028年以前推出能搭载30名乘客，全电动续航里程达200公里的电动飞机。去年9月，以色列企业Eviation一款9座电动飞机试飞成功，续航里程达400公里。

According to McKinsey, a consultancy, air travel accounts for just 8% of journeys between 150km and 800km in America. In Europe it is only 4%. Most such journeys are taken by car, even in Europe, where buses and trains are more readily available. That creates a big opportunity for environmentally friendly short-haul flights, especially given that 90% of America’s population and 50% of Europe’s live within a 30-minute drive of a regional airport. Expect plenty more experiments with electric aircraft in the years ahead.

3

观点|评论|思考

本周感想

Neil，男，外贸民工，经济学人铁粉

人从地上过，祸从天上来。空中的士的安全性，我想说是最为重要的问题。基于此，最难的一步是航空管理局能否允许飞行商业化。这类飞行如果出点故障，大概率是容易造成重大损失。它实施的过程大致分两个阶段：第一阶段，郊区的低空试行，在各种天气状况测试安全后，进入第二阶段城际出行。虽然飞行器载有2人左右，在空中飞行的飞行器多了，基数也变大。另外城市里的人多，飞行器坠落容易造成次生灾难。所以目前的飞行器还不能完全在日常中使用。

以上是站在技术安全的角度分析，空中的士真正落地还需要时间。我们也可以从商业的角度，判断一二。假设所有技术问题得到解决，空中的士的市场规模有多大。从数量树，每个家庭一辆飞行器基本是不可能。以美国为例，在运营的出租车有40万辆左右，美国汽车保有量在2.6亿辆，40W占2.6亿辆可以完全忽略不计。即使把所有出租车代替，飞行器载客的数量也有限，并不能有效缓解大城市的拥挤问题。除非挨家挨户都坐空中的士上班，地面压力是解决了，空中压力就上去了。

另外一个方面是从成本分析。目前直升飞机运营成本是10000元/小时，空中的士有望降至其成本的10分之一，那就是10分钟预计也要160元左右。按照速度100KM/H，差不多1公里10元钱，成本高。不是一般工薪家庭所能接受的，在某些特殊场合能使用，比如企业服务、消防应急救援、高价游乐园等。大众市场如果不能普及，整体市场规模就会受到限制。

4

愿景

打造

独立思考 | 国际视野 | 英文学习

小组

01 第十七期翻译打卡营 

4位一笔，3位二笔

21天录播课程

既有中译英，也有英译中。

从翻译的流程策略，英汉语言特点，

方法，类型，背景知识到细致的语言点，

我们都逐一讲解以及答疑，让同学们吃透翻译。

点击下图，即可了解课程详情！

02 第十六期写作精品课 

写作课共5位老师
3位剑桥硕士3位博士在读（剑桥，杜伦，港理工）
5位雅思8分（其中两位写作8分，3位写作7.5分）
雅思、学术英语写作，不知如何下笔如有神？
写作精品课带你谋篇布局直播课+批改作文，
带你预习-精读-写作-答疑从输入到输出写出高质量英语作文
点击下图，即可了解写作课详情！

03 第五期二笔直播课 

3位一笔，1位二笔

授课内容全部为CATTI实务考试相关

小班直播课，随机批改，有针对性讲解

每位同学拥有一次批改机会

点击下图，即可了解课程详情！

04 早起打卡营 

两年以来，小编已经带着20000多人早起打卡

早起倒逼自己早睡，戒掉夜宵，戒掉手机

让你发现一个全新的自己，创造早睡早起的奇迹！

早起是最简单的自律！

第79期六点早起打卡营

和

第66期五点半早起打卡营

欢迎你的加入！

点击下图，即可了解早起打卡营详情！