麦睿投资第三季度市场综述（2023）

经济和利率评论：

美国经济继续稳定增长，第二季度 GDP 为 2.1%，就业持续强劲，失业率保持在3.8% 的低水平。美国领先经济指数 (LEI) 于 2023年 8 月下降 0.4%，至105.4。联合会商业周期指标高级经理 Justyna Zabinska-La Monica 表示：“八月份指数下降，代表已经接近一年半的持续下降，增长期充满挑战，明年可能出现经济衰退。”“领先指数继续受到新订单疲弱、消费者对商业状况的预期恶化、高利率和信贷条件紧张的负面影响。所有这些因素都表明，未来的经济活动可能会减速并经历短暂但温和的收缩。世界大型企业联合会预测，2023年实际 GDP 将增长 2.2%，然后在 2024 年下降至 0.8%。

通胀持续下降，美联储首选指标（核心 PCE）降至 4% 以下，这导致美联储暂停了第三季度的加息，市场预期四季度小幅加息。美联储表示将维持利率在目前水平，直到失业率大幅上升。

第三季度长期（十年期）利率从 3.82% 上升至 4.57%。大多数融资基于这一利率，因此长期利率的增长给企业和个人带来的压力比三季度末的短期利率（5.3%）更大。我们没有对长期债券进行大量配置。我们的债券配置主要是短期债券，因为我们认为如果购买长期债券，应该有溢价来补偿额外的风险。换句话说，长期利率应高于短期债券利率，以补偿利率可能上升导致债券价值下降的风险。例外情况是，如果经济出现严重衰退，那么会导致利率的大幅下降。我不强烈认为利率会大幅下降，实际上，我认为利率上涨或下跌的可能性大致相等。

债券和被动企业所有权（股票）市场评论：

大盘股标准普尔 500 指数三季度下跌 3.65%，9 月底大幅下跌 6%抹去了夏季的涨幅。这一下跌使年初至今的回报率降至 12%。该下跌是由于长期利率飙升造成的，长期利率上涨特别打击对利率敏感且经济安全的行业，比如公用事业（-9.2％）和消费必需品（-6.6％）等，因为这些股票的股息与较高的债券利率竞争。我并不担心九 月份的资产抛售，因为在12-18月期间5-20% 的修正相当普遍。所以，换句话说，我们已经到了一个缓冲调整期。而且，从受影响最严重的行业来看，此次调整并非由于经济疲软，更多的是由于长期利率上升而进行的估值调整。

债券指数（代码 AGG）三季度下跌 3.2%，导致年初至今的回报率为 -1%。关于债券期限风险的一个有趣的教训是，20年期以上国债指数（代码为 TLT）的市值自 2020 年高点以来已下跌 50%。通过严格将债券配置保持在短期债券，我们客户的债券回报率今年以来接近3.3%，2023年全年预计5%。

地产投资信托基金继续落后于股票市场，美国房地产投资信托指数三季度下跌 8.7%，拖累其 2023 年初至今的回报率至-5.1%。公共房地产投资信托基金对办公空间领域的配置较高，而该领域仍然不受欢迎。我们对公共房地产投资信托基金的敞口较低，因为过去几年这些房地产投资信托基金的收益率太低，从风险调整的角度来看缺乏吸引力。

黑石私募房地产信托 (B-REIT) 三季度上涨了 2.2%， 2023 年年初至今的回报率达到 3.5%。这是由于该基金的酒店物业以比账面价值高出 4% 的价格机会性出售，以及工业和多户住宅物业租金上涨带来的现金流增加。他们计划将房地产销售所得资金用于投资大型科技公司人工智能基础设施的数据中心仓库。

结论：美国经济正在经历调整期，增速将低于我们在2021年所习惯的水平。资产市场正在适应更高的利率和更低的增速。高利率使债券收益率最终略高于实际（经通胀调整）利率。我们青睐于那些能够随着时间的推移增加利润以抵消利率上涨影响的资产。由于通胀风险，我们仍然青睐企业所有权和基础设施（尽管短期内会出现波动），而不是固定收益/债券的违约安全。

Economic and Interest Rate Commentary:

The US economy continues its stable growth with Q2 GDP of 2.1% as the economy continued to grow at a stable pace as employment continues to be strong with a low 3.8% unemployment rate. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 “With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Reported inflation continues to drop as the FED preferred metric (Core PCE) dropped below 4%. This has led the FED to pause further rate increases in Q3 and the expectation of small rate increases in Q4. They have indicated to keep rates at these levels until unemployment increases significantly. 

Long term (10 year) rates increased from 3.82% to 4.57% in Q3. Most financing is based on this rate, so this increase puts more pressure on businesses and individuals than the short-term rates which ended Q3 at 5.3%. Meridian Investments have no significant allocation to long term bonds. Our bond allocations are mostly in short term bonds because we believe there should be a premium to take on the risk of long-term rates. In other words, longer term rates should be higher than short term bond rates to compensate for the risk interest rates could increase making the value of the bond lower. The exception to this would be if you knew there was going to be significant economic weakness that would cause rates to drop significantly. I do not have strong conviction that this is the case and think the probability of rates going higher or lower are roughly even.       

Bond and Passive Business Ownership (Stock) Market Commentary:

The Large Cap S&P500 index fell 3.65% in Q3 with a sharp 6% drop in late September wiping out the summer’s gains. The drop brings the YTD return to 12%. The drop in stocks was caused by the spike in long term interest rates that particularly punished interest rate sensitive and economically safer sectors like utilities (-9.2%) and consumer staples (-6.6%) as the yields on these stocks compete with the higher bond rates. I do not view the asset sell off in September as particularly concerning as corrections of (5-20%) are a fairly common occurrence with a frequency of 12-18 months. So, in other words we have been getting due for one of these periods. Based on the sectors that have been most affected in this correction is not due to economic weakness but more due to a valuation adjustment from higher long-term rates.

The bond index (symbol AGG) fell 3.2% in Q3 resulting in YTD -1% return. An interesting lesson in the duration risk for bonds can be shown in the 20+ Year Treasury Bond index (symbol TLT), where the market value of the 20+ Year US government bond has decreased 50% since their 2020 highs. By keeping our bond allocation strictly in short duration bonds, our clients return on bonds is closer to 3.3% YTD on the way to 5% for full year 2023. 

Public REITs have continued to lag the general stock markets with the US REIT index decrease of 8.7% in Q3 dragging down its 2023 YTD return to -5.1%. Public REITs have a higher allocation to the office space sector which continues to be a undesirable sector. We have low exposure to public REITs as the yield on these have been too low the past few years making them unattractive from a risk adjusted basis.  

The Blackstone Private REIT (B-REIT) increased 2.2% in Q3 bringing the 2023 YTD return to 3.5%. This was due to the opportunistic sale of hospitality properties for values 4% higher than their carrying value and the increase cash flow from higher rents in the industrial and multifamily property sectors. They plan to use the proceeds from property sales for data center warehouses used for the build out of AI infrastructure by the big Tech companies.  

Conclusion: The US economy is going thru an adjustment period with slower growth than we were accustomed to in 2021. Asset markets are adjusting to higher interest rates and lower growth. Higher interest rates have brought bond yields finally slightly higher than the real (inflation adjusted) rate. We favor assets that can increase profits over time to offset the effects of rate increases. We still favor business ownership and infrastructure (despite short term bumps along the way) over the default safety of fixed income / bonds due to inflation risk.