我本来跟第四个人观点一样。但是第五个人是唯一讲出预测依据的,并且讲到了点子上,所以我又犹豫了。
momclub17 发表于 2023-10-04 10:41
不少人也是给理由的,只是楼主没有摘抄,比如GMO的Jeremy Grantham,他的理由是:
"Forty years of lower and lower interest rates push asset prices up, particularly housing through the mortgage mechanism. How can it not? If you can afford to pay more for your house because the mortgage rates are 3%, sooner or later you pay more for it. And so the competition bids the price up to fill the available affordability. Now the mortgage [rate] is 7%. The same thing will happen in reverse. It doesn''t happen overnight. Everyone in the market wants everything to happen yesterday. But with interest rates and mortgages, it can take a long time to percolate through. But you can be absolutely certain that it will." "Real estate is a global bubble. It has driven house prices provably to multiples of family income all over the world: Beijing, Shanghai, Sydney, Adelaide, Canada, London. It used to be multiples of three and a half times family income. London is now 10 times. Toronto is worse. No one can afford to buy a house. No young kids come out to buy a house. This is not a stable equilibrium," Grantham said.