牛市 | 经济学人
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思维导图作者：
琚儿，女，QE在职，梦想能仗翻译/音乐/健康走天涯
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Leaders | Stockmarkets
社论 | 股市
英文部分选自经济学人202300106期社论板块
Leaders | Stockmarkets
社论 | 股市
Is America’s raging bull market exhausted, or taking a breath?
美国一路高涨的牛市是已经到达强弩之末，还是准备稍作休憩？
Investors have a slight hangover
投资者棋差一着
If you hadan overindulgent Christmas, you may have begun the new year in a more austere frame of mind. Recent goings-on in the markets may therefore seem familiar. As 2023 drew to a close the American stockmarket was on a ripping run. It ended the year with nine consecutive weeks of gains, the longest winning streak since 2004. The s&p 500 index of leading American stocks was a whisker away from its all-time high, set on January 3rd 2022, when investors thought that interest-rate rises would be small and slow. Now punters are suddenly in a more sober mood, with stocks falling by 1.4% in the first two trading days of the new year. Such modest fluctuations are hardly unusual. Nonetheless, they raise the question of whether the blistering bull market is over, or has further to go.
你如果圣诞节过于放纵，开年可能就会节制一些。近期股市的异常状况如出一辙。2023年进入尾声，美国股市高歌猛进，用连续九周的上涨给2023画上了句号，这是自2004年以来最长连涨纪录。记录美国龙头股票的标普500指数与其2022年1月3日的历史最高值相差无几，当时的投资者都认为利率增幅小，增速慢。然而，股市在新年头两个交易日就下跌1.4%，股民立马冷静下来。股市出现这种小波动是正常的，但这不禁让人产生疑问：火爆的牛市是已经结束，还是会持续？
For the first ten months of 2023, the market rally was largely concentrated in seven tech stocks, led by Nvidia, a maker of the computer chips that are used to process artificial-intelligence (ai) algorithms. Since then, however, it broadened and gained pace. Firms that mirror the wider economy, such as retailers and banks, soared—JPMorgan Chase is up by a quarter since late October. Thes&p 500 rose by 14% in the final two months of 2023, and towers 31% above its most recent trough, well above the 20% that is often used to define a bull market.
2023年前10个月，牛市主要集中在以人工智能算法处理计算机芯片制造商英伟达为首的7支科技股。但10月之后，牛市范围扩大，上涨速度加快。零售商、银行等反映经济大形势的公司股价飙升，10月下旬以来，摩根大通的股价涨了1/4。2023年最后两个月，标普500指数上涨14%，比最近的低点高31%（只需达到20%即可视为牛市）。
The explanation for the run was a happy mix of strong economic growth, an orderly reduction of inflation and, crucially, an enormous shift in interest-rate expectations over the past two months.America’s economy expanded at an impressive annualised pace of 4.9% in the third quarter; real-time estimates suggest it grew at a still-robust 2.5% in the last three months of the year. In the past three months “core” consumer prices have risen at an average annualised pace of just 2.2%, only a smidgen above the Federal Reserve’s inflation target.
股市大涨可以解释为1. 强劲经济增长2. 有序减少通胀3. 过去两个月利率预期的巨大转变的共同作用，第三点尤为重要。2023年第三季度，美国经济年化增长率为4.9%，十分瞩目。实时估计显示，最后3个月，美国经济依然强劲，增长了2.5%。过去3个月，核心消费者价格的平均年化增幅只有2.2%，仅略高于美联储的通胀目标。
That led to a big shift in investors’ expectations for interest rates. In October they thought one-year rates in a year’s time would be close to 5%. Thanks to lower inflation data and a doveish set of forecasts from the Fed, that has fallen to 3.5%. Bond investors see the central bank cutting rates as soon as March—and continuing in almost every meeting in 2024. This tantalising prospect of immaculate disinflation, robust growth and the promise of easier monetary policy has underpinned the rally.
因此，投资者对利率的预期发生了巨大变化。10月，投资者认为，一年后，一年期利率将接近5%。由于通胀数据下降和美联储的一系列鸽派预测，预期已降至3.5%。债券投资者认为，央行最早将在3月份降息，而且2024年每次会议后基本都会继续降息。股市高涨，因为完美去通胀、强劲经济增长、出台宽松货币政策的承诺令人心动。
Can the bull market be sustained? Asset prices still have room to rise. Although markets are close to the heights they reached after the protracted mania of 2021, that does not mean that things are as excessive now as they were then. In real terms, stock prices remain lower; valuations are therefore not quite as elevated. Participation by retail investors, which reached a giddy peak of 24% of daily trading volumes in early 2021, was steady at around 18% in 2023.
当前牛市能否持续？资产价格仍有上涨空间。尽管市场已接近2021年长期狂热后达到的高点，但这并不意味着现在的情况与当时一样过盛。按实际价值计算，股票价格仍然较低；因此估值并没有那么高。2021年初，散户投资者的参与度达到巅峰，占日交易量的24%，2023年稳定在18%左右。
Moreover, although tech led the charge in both 2021 and 2023, investors this time have been discerning. They have lifted up Nvidia and Microsoft but Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla are all trading below their peak valuations. It is not just Americans excited aboutai who are buoying stocks: in dollar terms European and Japanese equity indices are also within touching distance of their level two years ago.
此外，虽然科技股在2021年和2023年都领涨，但这一次投资者眼光独到。他们捧红了英伟达（Nvidia）和微软，但Alphabet、亚马逊和特斯拉的交易价格都低于其最高估值。人工智能推动股票上涨，不仅让美国人感到兴奋：按美元计算，欧洲和日本的股票指数也距两年前的水平仅咫尺之遥。
Rude awakening
猛然觉醒
Yet everything hangs on whether investors’ ideal economic scenario comes to pass. The expectation that it will helped lift stocks close to a record high last year. But risks to the outlook abound, and may have given investors pause in the cold light of January. Inflation in America may not be fully vanquished, not least with the economy still in rude health and the fiscal deficit unusually wide. Strife in the Middle East could cause another commodity-price shock; the one-time easing of the supply-chain disruptions of the pandemic may be keeping inflation low only temporarily.
然而一切都取决于投资者理想的经济状况能否发生。去年，在乐观的预期推动下，股市接近历史最高水平。但这种预期会带来很多风险，可能会让投资者在一月的寒光中犹豫不决。美国的通胀可能不会被完全抑制，尤其是在经济依然健康且财政赤字异常巨大的背景下。中东冲突可能引发另一轮大宗商品价格震荡；因疫情中断的供应链暂时恢复，这只能暂时让通胀保持在低水平。
A downturn may merely be delayed, not dodged. Rises in interest rates may not yet have fully fed through to borrowers. Indeed, history suggests that recessions are hard to spot in real time, and tend to catch out central banks. If a recession does not arrive, it is still possible that the Fed will not move with as much alacrity as investors hope. To see what will happen in the markets in 2024, watch the real economy.
经济下行可能延迟，但不能避免。利率上调可能还没有完全影响到借款人。事实上，纵观历史，经济衰退总是后知后觉的，通常会让央行措手不及。如果经济衰退没有发生，美联储可能不会像投资者希望的那样快速采取行动。想知道2024年的市场如何，还得关注实体经济。
翻译组：
雪迪，开眼看世界
zy，当下快乐就是意义
Rachel，学理工科，爱跳芭蕾，热爱文艺的非典型翻译
校对组：
Clover，怀民亦未寝
Xiao，富春江小翻译
Constance，痛终有时，爱必将至
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